In a recent Las Vegas rally, President Biden shored up support from Nevada Democrats before winning the Nevada Primary this Tuesday. With few real Democrat challengers, Biden aimed much of his speech at his inevitable challenger, former President Donald Trump, in what Newsweek called Biden’s, “Angriest Speech Yet”. However, the subject matter of Biden’s fiery critique of Trump was quickly overshadowed by yet another gaffe from the 81 year old Commander-in-Chief. Biden told the audience of Nevadans that at the beginning of his Presidency, he met with G20 leaders and he spoke to a French President who died in 1996. The clip of yet another Biden senior moment was viewed 21 million times on X, with 11,000 reposts and 40,000 likes.

MIG’s report revealed the President’s appearance in the Silver state did little to sway Nevada, both in approval for Biden and in head to head support vs Trump. Much of the online discussions surrounding Biden revealed themes of either dismay at the state of the Biden’s America or serious nostalgia for the Trump Presidency.

By the Numbers

MIG’s data reveals that after Biden’s Sunday speech (2/4) in Las Vegas, his approval amongst online discussants remained stuck in the mid 40% range, rising only 1% the day of his speech.

• This matches the response to President Trump’s visit to Nevada in late January, when his approval also mariginally rose from 44% to 45% the day of his speech. But Trump’s approval rose to 48% that week when legal developments involving the President broke.

In head to head support analysis, MIG found that in Nevada over the last month:

• Trump averaged 50% support.
  
• Biden averages 41% support.
  
• RFK jr. averaged 9% support.

Biden also trails Trump on key issues in Nevada:

• On the economy, online discussions still show Trump beating Biden 47% to 41%.
  
• On Border Security, Trump trounces Biden 47% to 39%.
  
• On the Topic of Security Issues, Trump Holds 44% to Biden’s 38%.
  

The Trump Show

The lack of approval changes after both Biden and Trump’s speeches in Nevada reflects a broader trend seen in politics: campaigning directly to voters, known as retail politics is useless against Trump.

• Instead, Trump’s ability leverage charisma and media to connect with the electorate has controlled the political narrative-by framing establishment prosecutions as attacks against the silent majority.
  
• MIG’s analysis of Nevada online discussions centering on Trump demonstrated “Trump's narrative of being an outsider battling against a corrupt system resonates with his supporters. When he is prosecuted, it bolsters this narrative and makes him appear as a martyr fighting against a rigged system.”
  
• Biden’s cognitive decline leaves little ability to leverage media in the way his predecessor does, leaving Biden strategists to focus on Biden’s policies.

BideNOmics

Yet the Biden strategy of focusing on policy is already proving fruitless, as analysis by MIG in both Clark County and Nevada shows:

• In Nevada, amongst online users discussing Biden, “There is a perception among users that Biden is favoring non-citizens over U.S. citizens, particularly in reference to immigration and housing issues.”
  
• Negative sentiment on the economy is also strong in Clark County specifically, where MIG found:
  • “concerns about the increasing rent prices and unaffordable housing, which some attribute to "Bidenomics".”
    
  • More generally, “Frustration over increasing living costs under Biden's administration, with some individuals claiming their cost of living has significantly increased.”

Make America Great Again, Again

Biden’s strategy of contrasting his Presidency with Trump to Nevadans falls flat beyond its own merits, with many highlighting preference for the Trump Presidency. MIG’s analysis of Nevada online discussions comparing Trump to Biden found:

• Foreign Policy: “Many comments compare Biden's Presidency with Trump's..people seem to believe that Trump had a more peaceful approach to foreign policy, refraining from starting new wars, and had a better relationship with countries like Russia and North Korea.”
  
• Immigration: “Criticism of Biden often centers on the perceived lack of control over the southern border and the potential implications for crime and the economy. These users view Biden's policies as too lenient, leading to an increase in illegal immigration.” While other “users believe that Trump was better at enforcing immigration laws and protecting the border, and criticize Biden for his stance on immigration.”
  
• Despite media framing of Trump holding back immigration reform, Nevadans who appear to not even be Republicans continue to slam Biden, “People are comparing Biden's policies to previous administrations, particularly those of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, criticizing Biden for not being as assertive on immigration issues.”
  
• Handling of the Economy: “Some users argue that Trump was better at managing the economy, pointing to the GDP growth under his administration.”

Looking Ahead

Despite Biden’s Las Vegas rally and a strong primary win, the incumbent President’s campaign looks increasingly helpless in the face of a dominant showing by Donald Trump in swing states like Nevada and national polling in general.

The best campaign gurus of the left can do little to twist reality of what life was like during the Trump Presidency compared to now in the eyes of voters, nor can they make the noticeably 81 year old President seem any younger.

MIG's analysis underscores a stagnant approval rating for Biden in the face of an enduring appeal on Trump era policies on the economy, border security, and national security. Even if the unemployment rate continues to remains strong and inflation plateaus, Biden's message will continue to be overshadowed by Trump’s dominance of the news cycle and gaffes that fuel discussions about his fitness for office. This reflects a broader trend in American politics where charismatic leadership and dominance of media presence increasingly overshadow traditional retail politics. It becomes more and more clear that there is little Biden can do to win the hearts and minds of voters in an era of personality and vibes driven politics that Trump has mastered.

MIG data is showing a deep polarization in views about Biden's health and his potential reelection. In many conversations, there's a subtext of worry over Biden’s cognitive abilities that spans all political views. However, it's often used as a talking point rather than an expression of concern for Biden's well-being.

Republicans tend to leverage Biden’s health to criticize his capability as a leader, Democrats downplay it to counteract Republican narratives, and Independents use it as part of broader discussions on policy and leadership.

Discussions About Whether Biden is Running the Country

While views about Biden’s cognitive fitness generally divide along party lines, there is a brewing discussion about whether he is the one making important decisions.

• Most supporters believe Biden is running the country effectively, citing his focus on climate change, infrastructure, and healthcare.
• They appreciate his calm demeanor and his effort to unite the country after a contentious and polarized period.

However, a significant number of Americans express skepticism about Biden's leadership. They question his mental and physical fitness, often pointing to his age and recurring verbal gaffes.

• Generally right leaning, this group implies that there might be others "pulling the strings," as they suggest that Biden cannot be fully in charge.
• Speculation about actual decision makers include the Democratic Party's more progressive members.
• Names are mentioned like Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and The Squad, and various interest groups advocating for progressive causes.
• There is also a widespread belief among some circles that "woke" culture and corporations significantly influence Biden's policies.
• This sentiment is often expressed in discussions around issues such as race, gender, and social justice, with critics arguing that Biden is bending to the will of these progressive forces.
• Some theories suggest a shadowy, deep-state influence, implying that unknown entities might are controlling the presidency. But these theories are generally dismissed as misinformation.

It is noteworthy that these perspectives vary widely, often falling along partisan lines. Biden's supporters tend to view him as effectively running the country, while his critics are typically the ones who view his leadership skeptically.

Democrats Avoid Talking About Biden’s Cognitive Abilities

National Conversations

Democrats tend to be relatively quiet about about Biden's frequent gaffes and lack of unscripted public appearances. This suggests that Democrats may have unspoken concerns which they’re not willing to voice publicly.

• While Democrats sometimes acknowledge Biden’s coherence issues, they do not seem to view them as indicative of mental decline or as disqualifying for a potential reelection.
• Democrat commentary generally defends Biden, pointing to his achievements and dismissing criticisms of his mental health as unfounded.
• Due to the dismissiveness on the subject, one could infer that Democrats might be more supportive of Biden's policies and perhaps less likely to view his age or health as important.
• Democrats tend to argue that Biden has been an effective leader and deserves reelection.
• They rebut Republican accusations of mental decline by suggesting that these are politically motivated attacks.
• Some Democrats do express concern about the effectiveness of Biden's messaging, indicating that they believe he needs to do a better job of promoting his accomplishments.

Counter-Narratives About Trump’s Cognitive Abilities

In many discussions, Democrats argue that Trump’s mental state is equally questionable or even worse than Biden’s.

• Many refer to Trump's cognitive abilities negatively when Biden is brought up.
• They often recall instances during his presidency where his behavior or remarks were seen as erratic, unorthodox, or even authoritarian.

Swing State Democrats

In key states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and other swing states, Democrats generally align with national party sentiment, although there is more noticeable concern.

• National approval for Biden has averaged 49% in the last 30 days, while approval in swing states averaged 44%.

• Some swing state voters argue that Biden’s potential cognitive decline is being exaggerated or manipulated for political gain.
• There is noticeable dismissal when concerns are brought up, mirroring the national conversation.
• Many swing state Democrats do not directly mention Biden's health or potential mental decline.
• Lack of discussion may be due to an overshadowing anti-Trump sentiment within the party.
• However, there are some Democrats voicing concern about Biden's potential cognitive decline, arguing that it could harm the party's chances in future elections.
• A large segment of swing state Democrats seem to take issue with Republican narratives, but will not explicitly defend Biden's cognitive abilities.
• There is a clear divide among swing state Democrats about a potential Biden second term, with some expressing strong support and others voicing doubts.

Republicans View Biden as Clearly in Decline

National Conversations

Overall, Republicans tend to be most vocal about the possibility that Joe Biden is not actually running the country, but rather has “handlers” guiding him. They often express concerns about what they see as clear cognitive decline.

• Republicans frequently express concerns about Biden's mental acuity. They point to his recurring verbal stumbles, confusion, and gaffes as evidence of cognitive decline.
• They often cite Biden’s age, physical weakness, and frequent confusion as evidence of his decline.
• There are many references to Biden forgetting important details, or misspeaking. His recent mistake in mixing up Macron and Mitterrand has been a recent point of interest.
• There are repeated suggestions that Biden is "gaslighting" the public for votes or acting out of treasonous motivations.
• Many express concern over potential corruption and general incompetence within the Biden administration.
• Strong sentiments of disbelief and frustration are present, with some voters calling for Biden’s impeachment or for him to undergo cognitive testing.
• Many Republicans feel that Biden's lack of press appearances and obfuscation from his spokespeople are indicative of a more serious health issue.
• They also seem to believe that Biden's reelection would be terrible for the country due to a low probability of his completing a second term.
• This narrative is often accompanied by criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris, with detractors suggesting that she is unqualified or ineffective in her role.