The tragic murder of University of Georgia (UGA) student Laken Riley has ignited a fervent online discussion, primarily focusing on illegal immigration, crime, and the broader political landscape. The sentiments expressed in these conversations are shaping public opinion and have the potential to impact the 2024 elections.

Online Sentiment

The online discourse predominantly reflects frustration with leniency towards illegal immigrants. People believe current policies arecontributing to a surge in crime and societal disruption. Many comments express concern over the increasing criminal activities of illegal immigrants, with references to murder and robbery. The blame is often directed at specific state governments, particularly California and New York.There is widespread support for stricter immigration policies and stronger border controls.

Political Impact

The murder of Laken Riley has the potential to impact the 2024 elections in various ways:

Political Climate

The incident could heighten political tension and strengthen anti-immigration sentiments. Candidates advocating for tough immigration policies may gain support in the wake of an event like this.

Policy Debate

The murder will likely intensify debates on immigration policies and border control, influencing campaign strategies. Some candidates may call for stricter laws and stronger border controls, issues often linked to political stances and actions of President Donald Trump.

Voter Sentiment

The tragedy may sway voter sentiment in Georgia, leading to increased support for candidates addressing crime and immigration.

Public Safety Concerns

The murder could raise concerns about public safety, prompting candidates to address these issues and propose solutions in their campaigns.

The subject of Border Security and Immigration continue to be top issues linked with both Presidential candidates.

Public Sentiment

Negative public sentiment against the current administration is palpable, with users blaming lax immigration policies for the student's death. There is a call for mass deportations, tighter border control, and criticism of specific politicians, including Joe Biden, Gavin Newsom, and the entire Republican party for perceived inaction.

Polarization and Divisions

The discourse is highly politicized, revealing a deep divide in opinions about the government's role and specific political figures. While some support the border wall and stricter immigration policies, others criticize both the current and past administrations for their handling of the immigration issue.

National Security Concerns

Supporters of the border wall argue for its completion, citing perceived national security risks. Some discussions mention the actions of “border vets” and a poll indicating majority support for the wall, signaling a potential shift in public sentiment.

Conclusion

The murder of UGA student Laken Riley has become a focal point in the broader debates on immigration. Online discourse reflects a polarized nation with deep-seated opinions on how to address these issues. As the 2024 elections approach, the incident has the potential to influence political agendas, shape candidate strategies, and impact voter sentiment, particularly in the state of Georgia.

Lakewood Church Shooting Response

Discussion around the Lakewood Church shooting is divisive, but generating negativity. A significant portion of the discourse connects the incident to broader discussions around transgender issues and the consequences for society.

• Some online are pointing out the recurrence of violent shooters identifying as transgender.
• Critics of this viewpoint argue that such claims are discriminatory and are an attempt to politicize a tragic event.
• Some also question the veracity of the shooter's reported transgender identity, suggesting that it may be misinformation.
• There is also discussion about the shooter's alleged support for Bernie Sanders and demographic group.
• A few voices express disappointment with the media coverage of the incident, claiming that the shooter's transgender identity has been underreported or ignored.
• There are also suggestions that the shooters race and ethnicity are being misreported.
• People suggest that this is evidence of bias in the media and a reluctance to cover stories that don't fit a certain narrative.

Following the church shooting, online discussion around transgender issues increased from 327 mentions the day before, to 1,022 the day of the event.

• Sentiment toward trans issues dropped, both among Democrats and Republicans.
• Among Democrats, trans topics saw 52% approval prior to the event and 43% the day after.
• Republicans showed 46% approval for trans topics prior and 33% the day after the shooting.

Conversations About Trans Athletes in Women’s Sports

Among other discussions on trans issues, there is conversation around girls’ and women's sports. Trans athletes in the United States and Canada have recently become a hot topic due to the increasing number of transgender athletes participating in these sports.

Many Americans agree that everyone should have the chance to participate in sports. However, the inclusion of transgender athletes in women's sports is a contentious issue.

Support for Trans Athletes

• Some users have expressed their support for LGBTQ rights and acceptance in society, including the rights of trans athletes to compete in sports.
• They talk about the need for inclusivity and equality, and some also highlight the importance of representation in sports.
• They admire figures who have played a role in advancing acceptance.
• These individuals argue that gender identity should be respected and that excluding transgender women from women's sports is discriminatory.
• Some contend that hormone therapy mitigates biological advantages and that there is no substantial evidence to suggest that transgender women consistently outperform women.
• Although there’s a significant group of people who support trans athletes, their reasoning is fairly unified around “supporting equality.”

Disapproval for Biological Men in Girls’ Sports

• Many Americans express negative views about trans athletes in female sports, across several groups and demographics, although the loudest tend to be Christians and conservatives.
• Christians bring up religious arguments, citing the Bible as the basis for their beliefs.
• Many others raise concerns about fairness in sports, asserting that trans athletes have biological advantages that make competition unfair.
• A common argument is that transgender women have an unfair biological advantage over cisgender women.
• They point to factors such as muscle mass, bone density, and testosterone levels as undeniable advantages for transgender women.
• Many fear that allowing transgender women to compete could discourage cisgender women from participating
• Some voices, including prominent female athletes, argue that transgender women's participation effectively means fewer opportunities for biological women.
• There is insistence that transgender participation in women's sports infringes upon Title IX, a law that guarantees women equal opportunities in education and athletics.

Several states have passed or are considering legislation to prevent transgender women and girls from participating in women's sports. Many believe these laws are necessary to ensure fair competition. Some critics view them as discriminatory and harmful to transgender individuals.

Partisan Disagreements About Transgender Issues

Like many issues, there tends to be a somewhat partisan divide with general LGBTQ and, specifically, transgender issues.

• Support for trans athletes in girls’ and women’s sports tends to be expressed among left-leaning progressives and young people.
• Critics of rising trans ideology tend to be conservatives, religious groups, moderates, and older Americans.
• In the middle, there are some individuals who propose alternative solutions, such as creating separate leagues for trans athletes or implementing hormone regulations.

Overall, Democrats show more approval for topics involving LGBTQ issues.

Public Awareness on the Border

Recent MIG data shows online discussions about border security is significantly increasing, implying rise in awareness and concern among Americans. The general sentiment among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents appears to be that of concern and frustration, albeit for differing reasons.

• In the last 90 days, conversation online about the border has dramatically increased from an average of 2,951 mentions per day in November to 11,088 mentions per day in January.
• In the past week, online discussion about the border has averaged 15,462 mentions per day with February 4 reaching a high of 25,228.

• American sentiment about the border has decreased in the last 90 days. Public sentiment dropped from a consistent 50% in November to 43% today.
• Sentiment on border security has remained below 50% for 84 straight days.

Reactions to the Proposed Border Bill

Discussions about the Lankford border bill appear to be highly polarized and emotionally charged. In general, the discussions also reveal a perceived link between immigration and crime. This suggests that a significant portion of the online discussion on immigration is driven by concerns over safety and rule of law.

Republicans

Sentiment among Republicans seems to be predominantly negative with strong criticism towards the border bill.

• Republicans perceive it as an open borders bill that would allow unchecked immigration and jeopardize national security.
• There are numerous calls for strict immigration control, including the deportation of illegal immigrants and the closure of the border.
• Many accuse the Biden administration of facilitating illegal immigration, which they believe has led to an increase in crime, particularly referencing recent events in New York.
• Republicans also express support for actions against certain Democratic representatives, particularly Ilhan Omar.
• Many advocate for the completion of the southern border wall initiated under Trump's administration.
• Some have even suggested extreme measures like crocodiles in rivers, electrified fences, and drones with bombs.

Democrats

• Democrat voices are less prominent in these border discussions. But there is some criticism of Republicans for spreading what they see as racist and hateful rhetoric.
• Those on the left challenge the narrative of open borders and argue that encounters at the border do not equate to an increase in the U.S. population
• Sentiment suggests they believe Republicans are spreading misinformation about the bill and using the immigration issue to stoke fear and gain political advantage.
• There are accusations of Republicans fear-mongering, particularly toward Trump and Governor Abbott.
• There is also criticism towards the spending on the wall, with some Democrats arguing that the funds could be better used for other domestic issues.
• Democrats continue to be largely critical of the border wall, but are less engaged in discussion about the current crescendo of concern around safety and rule of law.

Independents

• Sentiment among independents is harder to pin down due to the diversity of views within this group.
• There is a noticeable contingent who suggest unorthodox solutions to the border issue, like building a wall on the northern border with Canada.
• Independents are not as vocal as Republicans, but it can be inferred that they are generally concerned about border security and immigration policies.
• They seem to have more nuanced views, but tend to see the need for both border security and humane treatment of immigrants.

Reactions to James Lankford

The online sentiment regarding Senator James Lankford's actions on border security is overwhelmingly negative. Many express dissatisfaction with his border security bill, viewing it as detrimental to the United States.

Approval for Lankford has fluctuated in the last 14 days with a high of 54% and a low of 38%.

Disapproval

• Many argue Lankford’s bill will lead to an influx of 2-3 million illegals per year or 20-30 million in a decade, effectively ending USA borders altogether.
• There’s also dissatisfaction with the bill’s distribution of funding. Many express indignation over possible allocation of more funding to Ukraine and Israel over border security.
• A few voices accuse Lankford of being swayed by bribes or outside interests rather than prioritizing the needs of American citizens.
• Some voters in Oklahoma, Lankford's home state, voice their disappointment, stating that they are closely watching his actions.
• There is a sentiment of betrayal among some Oklahomans who accuse Lankford of siding with Democrats and "selling out" Oklahoma.
• There are numerous calls for him to step down from his position, with some referring to him as a "RINO."
• There's a sentiment of betrayal and a threat of political repercussions with some users threatening to primary him in upcoming elections.
• Across party lines, there seems to be a perceived lack of focus on domestic issues.
• Overall, sentiments reflect a demand for markedly tighter border security measures, as well as a broad disapproval of the bill's provisions.

Approval

• Despite the overall negative sentiment, there are a few voices that view aid to Ukraine as beneficial to the US economy and thus support Lankford's bill.
• Arguments that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented demand for US arms sales, providing a significant boost to the American economy.
• There are a few voices of support for Lankford, arguing that he is focused on results rather than political posturing.
• However, these voices appear to be in the minority.

Reactions to Alejandro Mayorkas

Online sentiments toward Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas appear to be largely negative, with a strong focus on his alleged failure to handle the issues at the border effectively.

• Many commenters accuse Mayorkas of lying about his efforts to address what they perceive as an "invasion" at the border.
• People believe he has not taken action to curb the surge of illegal border crossings. Some even suggest that he's aiding and abetting the situation.
• This sentiment is mostly held by those who believe that Mayorkas and President Biden's border policies have exacerbated the crisis at the southern border.

Approval for Mayorkas has fluctuated in the last 14 days with a high of 48% and a low of 44%.

Division on a Mayorkas Impeachment

While talk about the border situation is generally negative, there seems to be more division about a possible Mayorkas impeachment.

Approval

• There is a strong call from many for his impeachment, with some arguing that his handling of the US-Mexico border crisis is a breach of public trust.
• Many accuse him of lying to the American people and Congress and failing to enforce border security laws.
• There is a belief that Mayorkas has not protected the homeland effectively and should be held accountable for his actions.
• Many say Mayorkas and Biden are ignoring laws they should be enforcing and do have power to act on this issue.
• Supporters insist that it is the duty of Congress members to vote in favor of his impeachment. They also accuse him of being a "Constitution hater."

Disapproval

• On the other hand, there are many who view the potential impeachment as a partisan ploy by House Republicans.
• Arguments that the impeachment is not about Mayorkas's job performance but an attempt to make the border issue a political talking point against the Biden administration.
• Dissenters argue that the impeachment is a political stunt, a "hit job," and an abuse of the process.
• There are some voices who say the impeachment will not pass the House vote and question the timing of the impeachment.
• Some argue that Mayorkas does not have the authority to set the US immigration agenda and that this responsibility lies with Congress.

Plummeting Approval for Newsom’s Crime Policies

Newsom is frequently cast in public discussion as being out of touch and ineffective in his handling of California’s crime issue. Discussion online spiked as a result of a video clip where Newsom says he was blamed for a shoplifting incident to his face. People find his story either ironic or fitting. Californians say Newsom’s story shows a failure to address crime and shoplifting effectively.

• On the topic of “crime,” Gavin Newsom’s approval score dropped to a 7-day low of 27%.
• His approval bounced back to 44% on the day of his comments as discussion volume surged.
• Following his shoplifting comments, discussion volume related to crime and Newsom doubled.

• Newsom’s support overall, including the topic of “crime,” reached a 7-day low of 40%, including the day his shoplifting comments became public.

What People Are Saying

Online discussions show that people are expressing strong negative sentiment towards Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, regarding the state's crime situation, especially in relation to shoplifting.

• People argue that Newsom's approach to handling crime in California is inefficient and ineffective.
• Californians express frustration and disappointment, citing an increase in taxes, high homelessness, rampant drug use, and uncontrolled crime rates as key issues.
• Many people feel these problems are direct results of Newsom's leadership and policies.
• There is a deep dissatisfaction with increasing instances of shoplifting and the overall crime rate in California.
• There's a sentiment that excessive amounts of tax money are not being used effectively, with some alleging corruption and misuse of funds.
• Many are blaming Newsom for creating an environment that is seen as favoring criminals.

Larger Contributing Issues

Many Californians see the crime increase as one problem among many other larger issues. Overall, the online sentiment towards Gavin Newsom in relation to crime in California is highly critical.

• There are suggestions that Newsom's policies are driving people out of California
• People accuse Newsom of being detached from reality and failing to acknowledge the impact of his policies on small businesses.
• They also argue that insurance companies are pulling out of California due to the rise in crime.
• Californians express a desire for stronger law enforcement, stricter policies towards criminals, and more effective solutions for homelessness and drug addiction.
• There is a belief that economic decline and problems like a failing school system and increased cost of living are causing people to leave California.
• A frequently expressed belief is that California has become excessively liberal under Newsom's leadership, with some labeling it as “communist.”
• Positive sentiments are few and far between, suggesting Newsom is facing significant public backlash over his policies.

Crime and the Border

A primary concern Californians discuss about the border is Newsom's perceived support for “open borders,” which they believe has led to an influx of illegal immigrants in the state. Many people attribute the high crime rates in California to Newsom's alleged failure to effectively control the state borders.

• People express anger and frustration towards Newsom, with some labeling him as a “dangerous person” and a “traitor” to California.
• They accuse him of condoning illegal immigration and even facilitating criminal activities, such as human trafficking and drug trafficking.
• There is also widespread belief that Newsom's border policies have resulted in a surge of crime in the state.
• Critics believe that illegal immigrants contribute to the high crime rates in the state, with some even suggesting that Newsom's administration has turned California into a “criminal haven.”
• Many say Newsom’s neglect of important issues in favor of supporting illegal immigrants is a testament to his inability to effectively govern the state.

National Conversation About the Border

The online discussions about the US border are rife with emotion and conflicting opinions. An underlying theme in these discussions is the perceived failure of both the federal government and the GOP to protect Americans.

Greg Abbott

A key figure in these discussions is Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who is both lauded and criticized for his stance on border control.

• Abbott‘s statement against the Supreme Court's ruling allowing razor wire to be removed from the southern border has sparked fervent responses.
• Supporters applaud his assertion of Texas's rights against what they perceive as a federal government overreach.
• They view the situation at the southern border as an "invasion," expressing fears about illegal immigration and Texas.
• Critics accuse him of fearmongering and of being absent during what he himself has labeled a crisis.

Donald Trump

Another key figure in the national conversation is Donald Trump.

• Many support Trump‘s wall as a means to control immigration, while others see it as an ineffective and divisive measure.
• Critics point out that the wall not only failed to solve the immigration issue but also inadvertently created easy access points for smugglers.
• They further argue that the situation at the border could have been prevented had Trump been competent in his initial attempts to build the wall.

Farmers

American farmers are also highlighted in the discussion, with some Americans praising them for supporting Texas in its efforts to stem the perceived "invasion" at the southern border.

Ilhan Omar

Multiple people express strong negative sentiments towards Representative Ilhan Omar, often linking her to what they perceive as an open-border policy.

• Commentors believe Omar‘s stance threatens national security.
• There are frequent calls for her to be removed from Congress and deported.
• Many are pointing to a perceived lack of allegiance to the US.
• A significant group of Americans seem to identify Omar as a key figure negatively affecting the border situation.

Democrats Overall

There's also a significant, recurring narrative that accuses Democrats of wanting open borders to score political points.

• Some suggest that this is a strategy to attract future voters from among illegal immigrants.
• Others accuse Republicans of creating fear and anger around the issue for their political gain.
• The current administration is frequently criticized for its perceived attempts to allow open borders and endanger the country.

Support for Key Figures Involved in Border Issues

James Lankford

There is no conversation specifically mentioning Sen. Lankford.

• In the last 7 days, Lankford’s average approval was 50%. Today it sits at 49%.

  

Joe Biden

• Many people blame Biden for the influx of illegal immigrants.
• There is criticism of the so-called "Biden-McConnell open borders amnesty bill," which some users feel would only increase illegal immigration.
• Biden’s 7-day average national approval rating was 47%. Today it’s 44%.
• His average approval in swing states over the last 7 days was 42%. Today it’s 42%.

Alejandro Mayorkas

• Some users believe Mayorkas is corrupt and accuse him of breaking the law.
• Calls for his impeachment, claiming he and Biden have committed treason by not fulfilling their oaths of office and endangering American citizens.
• In the last 7 days, Mayorkas’s average approval rating was 45%, and 43% today.

  

Greg Abbott

• There is praise for his efforts to protect the Texas border and his attempts to rally support from other states to address the situation.
• Governor Abbott is seen as a strong leader by many.
• There is some criticism with some attributing the state's immigration issues to his governance.
• Discussion about Abbott's controversial decision to send busloads of immigrants to other states. Some say it’s an attempt to avoid addressing the root of the problem.
• In the last 7 days, Abbott’s average approval rating was 47%. Today it sits at 47%.

With the holiday shopping season approaching, consumers appear conflicted about risking their usual shopping plans amid rising crime rates nationwide.  

What the Data Says 

Media Intelligence Group reports that public discussions reveal an emerging apprehension and caution regarding shopping dangers. 

• Reports of increased theft and organized retail crime in many major cities have been generating headlines all year.  
• Various reports also revealed that retailers lost more than $112 billion in 2022 due to crime.  
• Major brands like Target, Walmart, Nordstrom, Macy's, and others have closed store locations because of increasing theft. 

Now, the danger of in-store criminal activity has people expressing their hesitation to shop during what has traditionally been the heaviest shopping season of the year.  

• Some people argue that positive economic indicators like 2.0% and 2.1% GDP growth in Q1 and Q1 of 2023 point to a hospitable environment for spending.  
• However, concerns also persist about inflation's toll on families’ spending power, making purchases challenging. 

What Americans are Saying 

The MIG report suggests caution rather than fear is the prevailing mood among Americans.  

• Shoppers seem alert to potential dangers but not fully deterred.  
• Many do say they’ll think twice before venturing out or spend less time browsing in stores. 
• Meanwhile corporations seem quiet in the public forum but are likely keeping a close eye on shrinking revenues. 
• People are hesitant due to increased risks of theft and organized retail crime. 
• Some express fear about potential mass shootings in places like malls and shopping centers. 
• And most Americans feel uncertain about the overall economy affecting their spending power. 

Media Denial 

At the same time, many media outlets push back on the narrative that retail crime is significantly increasing nationwide based on available data.  

• Many headlines suggest that retailers may be overstating or sensationalizing the issue.  
• Some journalists express a desire for “more objective” data collection on retail crime trends before concluding there is a major national surge occurring. 
• Despite media pushback, these pressures may cause retailers to see decreased profits through the end of 2023.