Prior to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out and endorsing Donald Trump for president, MIG Reports data showed voter inclination to switch loyalties. Through a weighted analysis of online discussions and sentiment, data suggests up to 50% of potential RFK Jr. voters would crossover to vote for Trump and another 30% likely to sit out.

As I predicted yesterday, RFK Junior will drop out of the race on Friday and endorse President Trump in a national address streamed to all major platforms. This is fantastic news for America and the entire world. We can stop World War III together. pic.twitter.com/jRYpid0ofG

— Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones) August 22, 2024

Sentiment and Support Dynamics

Across datasets and prior to RFK Jr.’s Friday announcement, there was significant discussion about the possibility he would suspend his campaign and endorse Trump. Weighing the data, it becomes clear that around 50% of RFK Jr.'s supporters are likely to shift their votes to Trump with an endorsement.

This shift is driven primarily by shared concerns about the current direction of the Democratic Party, particularly under the leadership of Kamala Harris. Supporters express a strong desire for unity against what they perceive as a leftward shift, and they see Trump as a vehicle for achieving this unity.

Despite this strong inclination toward supporting Trump, there is also a notable divide within RFK Jr.'s base. Approximately 30% of his supporters may choose to abstain from voting altogether rather than align with Trump. This group is driven by ideological differences and concerns that an endorsement would betray the more progressive or independent values that RFK Jr. has represented. This internal conflict highlights tension among his supporters, who are torn between pragmatic political alignment and maintaining their core principles.

Key Issues for RFK Jr. Voters

Economy

Economic concerns, particularly inflation and job security, are highly influential for this group. Many of RFK Jr.'s supporters view Trump's economic policies as more favorable compared to Biden-Harris polices. This economic focus drives a significant portion of the sentiment in favor of Trump, as supporters fear the impact of ineffective or damaging Democratic policies.

Vaccines

Vaccine mandates and health-related issues also emerge as critical points of discussion. RFK Jr. has been a vocal critic of vaccine mandates, and this stance resonates strongly with his supporters. The potential for him to influence health policy in a Trump administration, possibly through a cabinet position, is a major factor in the discussions. Supporters who prioritize these issues are more likely to favor a shift to Trump, seeing it as a way to advance their agenda.

Concerns of Authoritarianism

However, identity politics and broader ideological concerns create a counterbalance to RFK Jr. voters shifting support to Trump. Many in Kennedy’s base remain skeptical of aligning with Trump due to concerns about the potential erosion of civil liberties and the integrity of democratic principles. These discussions often involve fears about authoritarianism and a loss of individual freedoms, which are core to the values of many of his supporters.

The Bottom Line

The analysis reveals a complex and divided landscape among RFK Jr.'s supporters. While around 50% are likely to shift their votes to Trump with an RFK Jr. endorsement, about 30% are hesitant to support Trump and may abstain from voting. This divide underscores the challenges RFK Jr. faces in leaving the Democratic party and realigning his political identity. Discussions reflect a broader struggle within his base, where the tension between pragmatism and principle continues to shape their political choices.

This chart demonstrates the frequency with which specific keywords—such as "Endorse Trump," "Cabinet Position," "Unite," "Save America," and "Communism"—are mentioned across three different discussion datasets: All Discussions, National Discussions, and Election Discussions.

• "Endorse Trump" is prominent theme, particularly in the Election Discussions category, indicating strong interest in RFK Jr.'s potential alignment with Trump.
• "Cabinet Position" is also frequently discussed, especially in the All Discussions category, reflecting speculation about RFK Jr.'s possible role in a Trump administration.
• "Unite" and "Save America" highlight broader aspirations for unity and preservation of perceived traditional values, though these are less dominant.
• "Communism" emerges as a concern primarily in National Discussions, signaling fears about perceived leftward shifts in the Democratic Party.

May Gallup reporting shows approximately 65% of Americans think U.S. economic conditions have worsened since 2020, and a similar amount have a negative perspective toward the future. MIG Reports analysis based on online conversations shows a similar 64.64% of Americans have reduced confidence in the U.S. economy.

• The -35 index rating in Gallup’s report means, on a scale of +100 to -100, sentiment leans negative.
• On a 1-100 scale, it translates to 65% reduced confidence—mirroring MIG Reports weighted analysis within 1%.

Voters Consistently Lack Confidence in the Economy

MIG Reports analysis uses online voter conversation volume regarding the U.S. economy along with sentiment tracking. In this weighted analysis, the aggregate confidence levels show:

• 64.64% of conversations express decreased confidence in economic prosperity
• 23.05% reflect a neutral stance
• 12.31% convey increased confidence

These figures highlight the prevailing skepticism and concern Americans feel about the U.S. economic trajectory. Only a minority of voters maintain confidence or have an optimistic view of the government's current economic management.

MIG Reports data also shows voter views are largely influence by the actions of the Biden-Harris administration—particularly the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Discussions that focus on confidence in economic prosperity are largely among Democratic establishment supporters.

The narrative emerging from these online conversations is one of serious concern about the economy. Most Americans are losing confidence in the economy, the government, and their own futures. While some still hold a neutral or positive outlook, most have become skeptical of the administration, calling for more effective economic governance.

Bidenomics is Decreasing Confidence

American doomerism on the economy stems primarily from rising inflation, increasing costs of living, and a belief in government mismanagement. Many voters believe the IRA has failed to alleviate the economic pressures they face. Instead, they say it has exacerbated inflation through increased government spending.

Conversations focus on "inflation," "rising costs," "spending," and "prices." People also direct frustration and anger at policies they view as disconnected from the public's interests. Sentiments such as "killing us without killing us" encapsulate the dire emotional mood around inflation’s impact on low-income households. This negativity further fuels widespread economic pessimism.

Some Say Hope is not Lost

The 23.05% of conversations which remain neutral on the economy express realism. These Americans acknowledge the challenges posed by inflation but recognize the potential benefits of government intervention.

One potential measure people mention is capping insulin prices and allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices. However, many remain uncertain about the long-term effectiveness of such policies. This leads to a mixed feeling of hope and skepticism. This group focuses on "jobs," "investment," "energy," and "climate." They acknowledge the IRA's goals but have reservations about its implementation.

A Few Believe the Talking Points

The smallest percentage of Americans—12.31%—voices support for of the IRA and other government initiatives. They tout Biden-Harris success reports like job creation in the clean energy sector, lower healthcare costs, and efforts to rein in corporate power.

These conversations often use keywords like "success," "jobs," "lower costs," and "investment" to emphasize the positive impacts of the Biden administration's policies. Supporters argue these measures are instrumental in building a more resilient economy and improving the lives of middle-class families.

MIG Reports analysis of American voter perspectives reveals how sentiment determines voting choices based on key issues. Many issues remain partisan, with Democrats supporting Kamala Harris’s stance and Republicans supporting Trump’s.

Independent voters are likely to be a critical voter group in 2024, enhancing the importance for each candidate to appeal to them. Several trends in sentiment and behavior overlap, suggesting a rough sketch of these voting demographics and indicating where they may place votes.

The top voter issues generating volume consistently over time are:

• The U.S. border
• Economic concerns
• Ideological disagreements
• National security and international affairs
• The Trump and Harris presidential campaigns

Voter conversations vary across political affiliation, with different emphasis and sentiment within each.

Border Security

There is strong disapproval toward Biden-Harris border policies and calls for a return to Trump-era measures which were more effective. Much of the conversations revolves around illegal immigrants and the perception of open borders. Voters are dissatisfied with the Biden-Harris administration, citing concerns about unchecked immigration, national security, and rising crime rates.

Kamala Harris's role as border czar often leads to criticism and accusations that she is failing to secure the border. Many also say she is actively encouraging illegal crossings. The discussion also ties border security to broader social issues like crime and the economy. People believe the impact of illegal immigration touches many areas of American life. This suggests border security will be a critical issue as Americans cast their votes.

Trump Voters

Republican conversations about the 2024 election highlight border security as a critical issue. There are strong sentiments favoring Donald Trump’s policies over Kamala Harris’s. Because people link immigration policies to other high-priority issues like national security and economic concerns, its importance increases.

Voters are frustrated with the Biden-Harris administration, saying Trump's policies were more effective. The discourse frames the upcoming election as a pivotal moment, with border security presented as integral to future stability.

Discussion among Democrats and Independents is much lower than among Republicans.

Economic Issues and Housing

Worries about the economy are consistent across all voter groups, with significant worry about inflation, taxes, and government spending. There is widespread dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration’s policies.

Voters associate rising costs of living and inflation with "Bidenomics” and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Many voters view these policies as exacerbating economic challenges rather than alleviating them. There is a consistently strong narrative linking economic instability directly to government mismanagement.

There is notable discontent regarding proposed changes like the "no tax on tips” proposal both Trump and Harris have presented. Many voters are skeptical about the sincerity of these reforms, suggesting they’re simply rhetorical promises that will not be kept.

Housing Affordability

The cost of housing further amplifies economic anxieties for Americans. There is pervasive frustration in online discussion over the lack of affordable housing and rising rent and mortgage rates. People view the housing crisis as symptomatic of broader economic instability. This, many also blame on Biden and Harris.

For many voters, there is a clear overlap between economic stressors and housing costs. Many tie their financial struggles to expensive housing, blaming politicians for focusing on less important issues and neglecting critical economic realities.

Independents

Independent voters are concerned about economic transparency and fairness. The economy dominates conversations among Independents who are skeptical of the reliability of economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and job reports. They question the accuracy of inflation data and express a desire for more transparency from the government.

Discussions also focus on the fairness of government spending. They contrast the plight of the working class with perceived preferential treatment for the wealthy, including large corporations. Sentiment is mixed, with some rejecting increased social assistance, calling it socialism, while others criticize economic inequality.

Among Independents, there is criticism of Kamala Harris’s policies. Some fear her leadership will worsen economic challenges and bring communist economic policies.

Republicans

Trump voters are optimistic about his economic policies, expressing urgency to return to his leadership and avoid further economic decline. Republicans highlight low taxes—including Trump's “no tax on tips” proposal—and tout Trump’s tax reform proposals. These, they associate with economic growth and middle-class support.

Inflation is also a significant concern as many draw a sharp contrast between today’s prices and those under Trump's leadership. Border security and immigration are frequently mentioned, as voters link these issues to economic strain. They support Trump's policies as vital for national security and economic health.

Democrats

Harris voters are more optimistic, expressing confidence in her economic management and hope in her future policies. The economic conversation is still central among Democratic voters, but it prompts them to stronger support for Kamala Harris's candidacy.

Democrats discuss trade, tariffs, agricultural prosperity, and the positive impact of Biden and Harris’s policies compared to past administrations. The term “farmers” frequently appears, reflecting a belief that Harris's strategies have reversed the hardships imposed during Trump's tenure. Democrats view Harris as revitalizing the agricultural sector and improving economic stability.

Ideologies

Americans are increasingly divided on the ideological stances of Democrats versus Republicans. There is heightened emotional sentiment and deep ideological divides regarding economic policy, social issues, democratic integrity, and perceptions of governance. These discussions revolve around terms like “socialism,” “communism,” and “America First.”

Trump supporters express strong loyalty to preserving and fighting for American values against a radical left agenda. They criticize Democrats like Harris for policies they say are socialist or communist. Many Republicans voice fears that a Harris presidency would push the country toward communism. Meanwhile, those on the left view a second Trump presidency as likely heralding fascism and authoritarianism.

Economic concerns spark ideological debates about communism versus capitalism. Conversation about social issues like gun rights and immigration draw debates about personal and national sovereignty versus safety and inclusion.

The debate over effective leadership intensifies as voters criticize both candidates. Trump supporters view him as a strong leader while critics view him as an authoritarian. Harris supporters view her as effective and historically significant while critics question her leadership and competence.

The ongoing election discussions highlight not just policy preferences but grow fears on both sides about the direction of the country. Most voters believe the ideological battleground will significantly impact America's future political landscape.

Independents

Independent voters are skeptical and frustrated with the political divide. They are engaged in ideological discussions but disillusioned with the two parties. There is a significant focus among Independents on media portrayals, political alignment, and ideological evolution.

This group is worried about the role of media, with skepticism directed at outlets like Fox News and CNN as unreliable or politically aligned. They also strongly react to the perception of radical ideological shifts in either party and decry media outlets as partisan.

Republicans

Republican voters also express widespread distrust of mainstream media. They accuse most legacy news outlets of bias, misrepresentation, and accepting talking points from Democrats. There is also disillusionment with the Republican establishment as voters call for more aggressive and principled leadership that aligns with true conservative values.

Democrats

Democrat conversations often center on governance, with mixed to positive sentiment toward Biden and Harris' ability to address challenges. Most support is underpinned by opposition to Trump, with optimism about Harris rectifying his damage to the country.

Election campaign strategies and voter mobilization are more prominent than conversations about media bias. There is both frustration and motivation among Democrats regarding the Party. Public perceptions of Harris as a candidate mix skepticism with support, showing some criticism and some excitement for her potential election.

Security Issues

Foreign policy and national security issues are also important to American voters. Discussions focus heavily on the U.S. relationship with Israel, the conflict in Gaza, and the implications of Iran's alleged hacking of the Trump campaign.

Discourse around foreign interference and military aid further exacerbates anxieties about national security. Trump voters feel indignant, arguing media portrayals and allegations of hacking are part of a broader agenda against their candidate.

The Biden administration's military aid to Israel gets most of the attention from Democrats. Conversations are charged with anger and frustration toward the Biden-Harris administration, with many accusing them of complicity in the ongoing conflict.

Independents

Independent voters are wrestling with the moral and strategic complexities of U.S. involvement in wars and conflicts. They show empathy for the humanitarian crises arising from these conflicts, particularly in Gaza. But they are wary of how protest movements alienate potential allies through extreme rhetoric or actions.

This group is skeptical about the possibility of meaningful change in U.S. foreign policy, especially regarding its support for Israel. There is general frustration with the political status quo. Despite these concerns, Independents express a strong sense of national pride. They hope for foreign policy that aligns more closely with their values and expectations of American leadership on the global stage.

Republicans

Discourse among Republican voters focuses on Iran allegedly hacking Trump’s campaign communications. They are suspicious about the security of political communications and the broader implications for national security. There is also deep distrust toward mainstream media. This group believes news outlets use incidents like this to undermine Trump's campaign.

There is anger, distrust, and a feeling of vulnerability among Republicans. They talk about the importance of national security, media integrity, and foreign influence in shaping voter sentiment. Overall, the conversations reflect a concerned electorate focused on protecting American values and the integrity of the electoral process.

Campaign Rallies

A significant focus in conversations about campaign rallies is on crowd sizes and the effectiveness of protests. Many use crowd size as a measure of political strength, with Trump supporters boasting large numbers as evidence of his influence and critics saying the claims are exaggerated.

Harris supporters claim her rallies are larger, with more popularity and better vibes. However, her rallies face scrutiny about the legitimacy of images and organic voter support, with critics accusing her of staging events and faking images. Some, however, are frustrated with the ongoing fixation about crowd sizes on both sides. They say these conversations detract from substantive political engagement.

There are also conversations about protests. Some question the lack of substantial protests at Trump rallies compared to the vocal opposition from pro-Palestine demonstrators at Harris events. People discuss the safety and efficacy of protests, fearing the consequences of heightened political tensions.

In general, discussions fall by the wayside, overshadowed by the focus on spectacle and attendance. This leaves many voters feeling as though pressing issues like immigration and healthcare are being neglected.

Sheehy’s Growing Momentum Among Montana Voters

Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer and decorated Navy SEAL, has gained traction in his Montana Senate race against the three-term incumbent Jon Tester. MIG Reports data shows Sheehy leads Tester in both approval and support. His lead is corroborated by a recent NonStop Local poll.

Tester has represented Montana for nearly two decades. This shift in voter sentiment reveals a growing dissatisfaction with Tester's performance, along with national disapproval of Democrats, on issues like inflation, taxes, and border security.

Voter conversations in Montana show increasing frustrations at Tester's alignment with leftist policies—despite his refusal to endorse Kamala Harris and his decision to skip the DNC. People use phrases like “Tester is a communist” and accuse him of “furthering socialist policies,” MIG Reports data shows.

This sentiment is pushing voters toward Sheehy, who they view as “America First” and upholding traditional values. Supporters describe Sheehy as a leader who embodies “freedom” and “patriotism,” contrasting him with their view of Tester as detached from Montana’s heritage.

• In the last 15 days, approval for Tester and Sheehy has fluctuated. In the past three days, Sheehy regained a lead of 51% to 49%. The shift comes on the heels of Sheehy’s rally with Donald Trump in Bozeman last Friday.
• Overall positive sentiment toward Sheehy in the last month has averaged 48% compared to Tester’s 46%.

The National Significance of Sheehy’s Senate Bid

The outcome of the Montana Senate race carries national implications. Sheehy is leading according to MIG Reports data and some polls. Tester's plan to skip the Democratic National Convention is also raising eyebrows. This draws attention to tight down-ballot races as the Harris-Walz campaign continues to get battered on economic issues and the border, and given Democrats’ slim Senate majority.

The incoming administration will need Congressional support, and economic struggles and the unpopularity of the Biden-Harris administration’s open border are putting incumbent down-ballot democrats like Tester in jeopardy. A Sheehy victory would not only flip a crucial Senate seat but signal a shift in voter sentiment by unseating an incumbent who has been in office since 2006.

For Republicans, winning Montana could be a key step in regaining control of the Senate. Sheehy’s success in connecting with voters on issues like the economy, border security, and housing highlights the broader dissatisfaction with Democratic governance, particularly in rural states.

As one voter put it, “We need someone who understands Montana values, not Washington politics.”

Important Voter Issues

Economic Concerns Drive Support for Sheehy

Americans across the country are deeply worried about inflation and taxes — and Montana voters are not exempt. Many blame Tester for contributing to the inflation crisis, complaining about rising prices, and increased property taxes. Tester's association with the Biden administration further fuels this narrative as voters place their financial struggles at Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s feet.

Tim Sheehy has capitalized on these concerns by positioning himself as the candidate who will bring economic relief. His background as a successful businessman lends credibility to his promises to lower taxes and stimulate economic growth. Voters who are disillusioned with Tester's handling of the economy see Sheehy as someone who can steer Montana back to prosperity.

Some critics call Sheehy “self-serving” or acting out of personal interest rather than genuine concern for Montana. But the overarching sentiment is dissatisfaction with Tester and willingness to give Sheehy a chance to prove himself. Donald Trump’s recent press conference on the economy and Kamala Harris’s scandalous plans for price controls are also helping push Republican momentum nationwide.

Housing

Housing affordability is another pressing issue in Montana, where rising costs are impacting residents statewide. Voters express anger over what they see as Tester's failure to address the housing crisis. Sheehy counters as a catalyst for change—though some critics are skeptical of his ability to tackle these issues with a struggling national economy.

Voters in Montana and nationwide blame Biden-Harris policies for sustained high housing costs. People talk about skyrocketing rents, increased property taxes, and poor solutions from politicians. Specific phrases like "housing costs doubled" and "property taxes rose 22%" underscore the dire situation many Montanans feel they are facing.

Border Security

Border security is another critical issue in the Montana Senate race, echoing national concerns about illegal immigration. Many Montanans accuse Tester of supporting “open borders,” which contributes to economic strain and public safety risks. Broadly, voters are angry at Tester and Democrats’ lax stance on immigration. They believe partisan policies endanger their communities and waste taxpayer dollars.

Sheehy has made border security a central theme of his campaign, promising to uphold “Montana values” by enforcing stricter immigration controls. His supporters believe he will prioritize secure borders and take a hard stance against illegal immigration.

This issue is particularly resonant in Montana, where voters are increasingly concerned about illegal immigrants flying in from border and sanctuary states. The country’s northern border, which is also a vector for illegal immigration and drug and human trafficking, is an under-discussed factor Montanans feel acutely.

Sheehy’s tough talk on immigration appeals to voters fed up with Democratic failures. However, like with other issues, there is a smaller group who question whether Sheehy’s rhetoric will translate into effective action.

Cultural Issues

Cultural issues are growing contentious, and many believe Tester has drifted too far from Montana's traditional values. People say Tester is aligned with “leftist policies” and “socialist ideas,” with some voters even labeling him a “communist.” More conservative voters in rural states also express strong objections to LGBTQ issues like gender ideology and child sex changes. Democrats like Tester aligning with liberal social issues makes voters view them as more attuned to the priorities of Washington, D.C. and far-left progressives.

In contrast, voters view Tim Sheehy as a defender of Montana’s conservative values. His supporters praise him for standing up for freedom and families. They appreciate his military background and commitment to the principles they believe define Montana. Sheehy’s focus on protecting individual liberties, including parents’ rights, and MIG Reports data shows promoting traditional family values resonates with Montanans.

Reactions to Donald Trump’s X space with Elon Musk sparked conversations about free expression, censorship, and manipulation. Supporters celebrate Trump's unfiltered communication style, contrasting him with politically charged media narratives that selectively report on his statements. Meanwhile, many in the media are concerned X—formerly Twitter—is exacerbating divisive rhetoric.

Mark Cuban went on John Stewart to complain about Elon Musk and 𝕏 but ended up being an advertisement for why people should be on 𝕏pic.twitter.com/T3RkisMz0q

— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) August 14, 2024

America Likes Raw, Unfiltered Politics

Social media conversations referencing Trump and Musk show broad appreciation for unfiltered, straightforward political conversation. Voter enthusiasm for an open dialogue and off-script discussions contrasts sharply with criticisms from mainstream media. Americans voice their desire for candid discussions by public figures, celebrating authenticity from Trump in the face of Kamala Harris’s carefully crafted image.

People recount personal stories about their paths to political engagement. There are many mentions of firsthand experiences of communism or observers beholding the unfiltered truth of Trump’s policies for the first time. These stories often involve feelings of revelation at the lies of Democrats and the media on ideological and political fronts. These accounts personalize ideological conflicts and mobilize public sentiment around shared values and experiences.

Young voter sentiment appears polarized. Some express disillusionment with traditional politics but still resonate with Trump's directness and his portrayal as an outsider. Others voice a profound fatigue towards what they perceive as Trump's divisive communication style. Detractors cite extremely polarizing moments during his presidency, specifically on issues of race and gender. TikTok analytics show Trump commanding a wide audience despite pervasive negativity about him. This suggests strong curiosity among younger audiences.

• On the day of the X space, Trump received a 2% approval boost nationally and mentions of his presidential campaign jumped to 23,543 from 16,269 the day before.

Legacy Media Hates Being Upstaged

Media outlets respond to Trump's reappearance on X as distressing and undermining. Many lament the wide reach of more than one billion listeners, expressing regret at the audience being composed largely of young voters.

🚨JUST IN: 77% OF THE 27 MILLION PEOPLE THAT TUNED IN TO TRUMP'S SPACE WITH ELON MUSK WERE YOUNGER THAN 34!

This is why the mainstream media is in MELTDOWN MODE!

Trump has the GEN-Z VOTE!

We know the FAKE NEWS won't report this.

Share to make this go viral! pic.twitter.com/M6Y8hBzwHo

— Bo Loudon (@BoLoudon) August 13, 2024

CNN on President Trump’s interview with Elon Musk:

“These are people who aren't going to tune into traditional news — who aren't going to follow politics in a traditional sense — but they are going to tune into Elon Musk doing an X space with Trump. This is a group of people who… pic.twitter.com/2PFmuUwFt1

— Proud Elephant 🇺🇸🦅 (@ProudElephantUS) August 12, 2024

Legacy media commentary often focuses on the apparent DDoS attack that delayed the start of the X space. Reporters highlight the attack as a “glitch” or technological failure, calling it a chaotic resonance of Trump's relationship with digital media. Some portray the delay as a setback for Trump, while others frame it as an irrelevant detail against the backdrop of more serious problems posed by the Trump campaign.

NEW: CNN fumes after the Trump / Musk X Space last night, slams Trump for his comments about their candidate Kamala Harris.

Mission successful.

“It began with 40 minutes of silence and then an apocalypse of politics.”

“No matter how you frame it or what caused the glitch, what… pic.twitter.com/QoabK3aast

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 13, 2024

Demographic and Group Responses

MAGA voters are unanimous in their excitement about the X space and Trump being back on the platform. They align themselves with his narrative about American patriotism in contrast to Democratic disdain for American values. They express urgency about the upcoming election, viewing it as a battle for the very essence of American values against leftist and communist ideologies.

Younger progressive voters are concerned over Trump's policies, particularly women’s rights and LGBTQ issues. Their sentiment often poses Trump as threatening a resurgence of authoritarianism.

Working-class voters appear highly sympathetic towards Trump's economic messaging. Many reflect on his promises of job growth and economic revitalization, arguing his policies offer a chance to restore dignity to working-class Americans. Affluent voters are more likely to voice unease about Trump’s alignment with populist rhetoric, often dismissing him as dangerous or irresponsible.

Conversations about the X space often include words like "communism," "freedom," "socialism," and "values." This highlights the ideological struggle that characterizes the 2024 election. Trump is viewed as a symbol of resistance against the left, while Kamala Harris symbolizes strong pushes for progressive change.

X is Preserving Free Speech

Americans are concerned about increasing attacks on free speech. They view the assault as part of a larger strategy by the left to suppress dissenting voices. Many express their support for Musk and Trump as hinging on their advocacy for the First Amendment. This group often suggests the DDoS attack was an attempt to banish freedom of expression, despite Elon Musk providing an open forum. This collective sentiment positions Trump supporters as guardians of liberty against rapidly receding constitutional rights.

There is a growing public anxiety about the future of American democracy on both sides of the aisle. Democrats and progressives present Donald Trump as a threat to democracy while Republicans and conservatives point to the Democratic establishment as already trampling norms and constitutional freedoms.

Comment threads on X and other platforms often contain a sense of urgency. Many view the current political climate as one of their remaining chances to make a stand for their beliefs. Phrases like “the last real worldview difference election” and calls for unity among conservatives underscore a rallying cry against socialist encroachment.

Trump on the Issues

Many voters who listened to Trump’s X space are taking the opportunity to contrast his policy proposals with Kamala Harris’s. People note that Trump touched on various important voter issues, while Harris has yet to release any meaningful policy platform.

• Since her announcement as the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris has gradually lost support.
• She received an approval bump with announcing Tim Walz as her running mate, but the downward trend continues, showing 49% on July 20 compared to 44% today.
• Donald Trump also received an approval bump following his X space, jumping from 44% to 46% on the day of the stream before settling back at 44%.
• Discussion volume around Trump’s campaign also spiked following the X space, jumping to 23,543 from 16,269 the day before.

Fake Kamala

Conversations online contain a constant stream of condemnation directed at Kamala Harris. Voters call her a "flip-flopper," "radical," and "fake," criticizing her actions and positions. Sentiments largely reflect a perception that Harris is an untrustworthy politician who lacks genuine convictions.

Trump critics highlight the discrepancy between his rhetoric and actions, particularly on immigration and the economy. They claim he adversely affected large segments of the population, championing Harris as an antidote.

• After Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, Kamala Harris received a significant support boost.
• However, that support has steadily eroded over the last month, dropping to 39% compared to Trump’s 58% today.

Border Security

One of the most frequently discussed topics following Trump’s X space is border security. People want stronger borders to stop illegal immigration. There is admiration for Trump's policies and stringent border controls, linking them to national safety and economic stability. Conversations portray Trump as a champion for strong borders, with discussions citing illegal crossings during his administration compared to today.

Critics accuse Trump and Republicans of politicizing border security for political gain. However, these arguments are often made ideologically rather than with references to specific policy disagreements.

Taxes

Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on tips is also popular. People discuss Kamala Harris’s attempt to piggyback on this policy, highlighting Trump’s comments about her being a copy-cat. Supporters say Trump advocates for the working class with tax relief measures. There is both support for Trump's fiscal policies and skepticism towards Harris’s lackluster economic platform.

Many of these conversations suggest Trump’s proposals resonate more authentically with the public.

Election integrity

Election integrity remains a salient topic in voter conversations, particularly related to Trump’s chances at the ballot box. People discuss Democratic Party tactics, mentioning "Joe Biden," and "Coup 2.0"as heightening their suspicions. Sentiments generally portray Trump as a victim of a political system designed to undermine him.

This fosters a feeling of agitation among his supporters who are concerned about secure voting procedures in November. Discourse around potential election fraud continues to be a rallying theme for Trump voters, blending feelings of indignation and loyalty toward him.

MIG Reports analysis shows recent online discussion about Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz’s liberal political record is corroborated by:

• Speeches given by Governor Tim Walz's between 2019-2024
• His recent first speech as vice-presidential nominee
• Pattern analysis of his record as a Congress member from 2007-2019

Online discourse and an analysis of previous speeches, determining Walz’s historical rhetoric and policy focus, confirms voter perceptions of his left-leaning platform. The analysis shows a clear shift toward more liberal and progressive positions during Walz’s political career.

In early speeches and actions, Walz took a more centrist, bipartisan approach, particularly in his early years as governor and his time in Congress. He emphasized working across the aisle on issues like veterans' affairs, agriculture, and rural economic development—areas traditionally seen as more moderate or centrist. Throughout his tenure, however, there is a noticeable leftward shift, particularly in his stance on social issues, economic policy, environmental concerns, and public safety.

How Voters View Walz

Current voter understanding of Tim Walz is shaped by significant online criticism of his “extremely liberal” politics. People discuss allegations of "stolen valor" for exaggerating his military rank and combat experience. This leads to widespread negative sentiment.

Discussions about how he handled civil unrest in Minnesota and COVID lockdowns also draw ire. Voters accuse Walz of cowardice and authoritarianism for allowing riots to continue unchecked and imposing harsh lockdowns in 2020.

His association with controversial figures like Imam Asad Zaman further fuels negative perceptions, raising questions about his judgment. Criticism extends to his stance on gun control, where detractors argue he lies about his military background to advocate for stricter gun laws.

Allegations of fraud in child welfare programs under his oversight have also damaged his reputation, generating significant distrust in his leadership. Overall, discussions place Walz under intense public scrutiny. Voters discuss him mentioning dishonesty, poor leadership, and questionable associations.

Voters also recognize that Walz has increasingly championed progressive causes, particularly in areas like LGBTQ rights, racial justice, and abortion rights. His strong support for protecting access to sex change surgeries for minors, codifying abortion rights, and banning conversion therapy aligns him closely with the progressive base.

Economically, Walz advocates for larger, tax-funded investments in public education, affordable housing, and paid family and medical leave—hallmark issues for progressives. He also backs required free school meals and a child tax credit aimed at reducing child poverty, further signaling his alignment with progressive economic policies.

More Money Doesn’t Improve Education

MIG Reports analysis shows discussions regarding educational policies, such as the free school breakfast and lunch programs, are politically divided. Some praise Walz's efforts as necessary support systems for children. But more conservative voters denounce the program, which mandates free meals regardless of family income, as a socialist overreach and an unnecessary use of tax dollars. This division reflects the broader ideological battle playing out in the narrative surrounding Walz’s governance.

In speeches, Walz consistently emphasizes Education and Families as central to his agenda. He advocates creating opportunities for children and supporting family structures. However, his discussions lack a detailed education strategy, with little specificity on how proposed investments will be managed or how they will correlate with long-term economic growth.

The absence of a cohesive educational and economic strategy raises concerns about the effectiveness and sustainability of his policies. The Casey Foundation ranked Minnesota education #7 in 2021, #9 in 2022, and #18 in 2023 despite increases in public funding. AP News also reported in December of 2023 that Walz’s free school meal program was costing more than expected and, as a result, was unsustainable for the state budget.

2020 Riots Still Anger Americans

Voter discussions on Public Safety are rife with allegations that Walz allowed and even encouraged chaos during the George Floyd protests in 2020. People accuse him of failing to deploy the National Guard to control the riots. They say he instead directed police efforts toward enforcing stringent lockdown rules.

Americans view Walz as a leader who prioritized extreme lockdown enforcement over public safety amid civil unrest. There is significant criticism of his COVID response, with accusations of unjust and overly restrictive measures. The most discussed topics revolve around his enforcement methods—like a snitch line—during lockdowns. Sentiment across these discussions is negative, with frequent comparisons to authoritarian practices and criticisms of his broader political ideology and governance style.

In public speeches, Walz’s approach to Public Safety focuses on gun control measures like red flag laws and universal background checks. These positions align him progressive views on gun limitations.

Foreign Policy and Security Issues

In discussions about Walz’s Foreign Policy, people mention his historical affiliations and travel to China. Voters highlight his extensive travel history to the country, accusing him of having ties to the Chinese Communist Party. These accusations are often linked to a broader distrust of Walz’s foreign policy positions and potential influences on his domestic policy decisions. Sentiment around these allegations is largely negative, often intensifying calls against his candidacy.

Top keywords mentioned with Tim Walz regarding Security Issues include:

• Hamas
• Muslim cleric
• Military service
• Stolen valor
• Antisemitic
• Hitler

The overall sentiment is negative, as people question his honesty, associations, and ability to handle security-related issues effectively.

Walz’s Rhetoric is Increasingly Leftist

Current public discussion of Walz's various policy positions is limited. However, MIG Reports analysis of his speech content confirms general voter perceptions of Walz’s increasingly left-leaning positions.

Healthcare

Walz’s speeches frequently mention Healthcare, initially focusing on access and affordability. Later in his political career, his advocacy expands to emphasize mental health and abortion rights. Despite this, Walz's speeches lack in-depth proposals for healthcare reforms. This gap in his healthcare strategy suggests a reluctance to tackle politically divisive issues, which could be attributed to his tendency to cater to the far left.

Bipartisanship

Over time, Walz's rhetoric shifts, with Bipartisanship giving way to a more direct, occasionally confrontational tone, particularly toward Republican policies. This shift indicates a stronger alignment with progressive stances, especially on issues like climate change, gun control, and social equity.

However, his speeches often omit issues critical to voters such as Immigration Policy, an increasingly significant topic in national discourse. By neglecting immigration reform and border security, Walz aligns himself with the political left who are often accused of advocating open borders.

Environmental Issues

On Environmental Issues, Walz sets ambitious goals, such as achieving 100% clean energy in Minnesota by 2040. This aligns with broader progressive goals focused on combating climate change and promoting sustainable energy.

His focus on Environmental Justice—how these policies impact marginalized communities—is historically limited. With growing importance in progressive circles, any emerging rhetoric from Walz on environmental justice would indicate continued movement to the left.

Rural Issues

Online conversations about Tim Walz characterize him an an increasingly left-leaning, authoritarian figure. When addressing Rural Issues, Walz tends to focus more on agriculture, with less attention on broader challenges such as rural healthcare access, broadband connectivity, and educational disparities. This narrow focus may suggest a limited understanding of the diverse needs of rural communities, which could hinder his ability to effectively serve these constituencies.

Summary

Voter discussions about Walz feature suspicions of dishonesty, poor leadership during crises, and questionable political associations. Public sentiment trends negatively across these themes, presenting Walz as much more progressive than Democrats claim. Many Democratic voters and political analysts seek to position Walz as a Midwesterner with moderate appeal. However, voter discussions and his own history of political advocacy confirms his strongly progressive allegiances.

Glaring gaps in addressing critical issues like immigration, comprehensive healthcare reform, and rural challenges damage Walz’s image among critical voter groups. People seem to understand that Walz’s track record reveals misalignment with important voter issues in favor of catering to the progressive wing of the Democratic base. As a governor, his impact is often seen as limited, with his successes overshadowed by significant failures.

Democrats are attempting to frame Governor Tim Walz as the authentic, rural moderate Republicans claim J.D. Vance to be. However, this strategy may not be working, based on recent MIG Reports data.

Urban voters and liberals praise and promote perceptions of Walz as a Midwesterner with moderate appeal. Rural voters, who tend to be more conservative, criticize Walz as out of touch, calling him a “progressive costal elite’s version of a Midwesterner.”

• Since being chosen as the Democratic VP nominee, Walz’s national support has dropped from 49% prior to the announcement to 45% a week later.
• J.D. Vance is holding steady at around 49% support, with some daily fluctuation.

• In the last week, Tim Walz has generated significantly more discussion than Vance with 62,775 mentions versus Vance’s 18,262.
• Overall approval for Walz averaged 47% in the last week compared to Vance’s 48%.
• Walz’s highest support topic was Palestine at 51% in the last week and campaign rallies at 61% in the last 24 hours.
• Walz’s lowest support topic was crime at 36% in the last week and military at 45% in the last 24 hours.
• Vance’s highest support topic was housing at 50% in the last week and multiple topics at 50% in the last 24 hours, including taxation, unions, and healthcare.
• Vance’s lowest support topics was Congress at 34% in the last week and cultural issues at 48% in the last 24 hours.

J.D. Vance

Vance’s policy positions, particularly on immigration and reproductive rights, elicit strong reactions from key voter groups. His strict stance on border security and alignment with Trump’s policies resonate with his supporters. Critics accuse Vance of extremism and question his sincerity, citing past criticism of Trump juxtaposed with his current support.

Increasing Support

One of the key issues increasing J.D. Vance’s support is his military service, which many voters respect. Voters compare his service in the Marines with Tim Walz’s service in the National Guard, often mentioning allegations of Walz’s stolen valor.

American voters are also vocal about Vance’s ability to handle media interviews adeptly. His quick thinking and ability to counter mainstream media narratives generates praise from conservatives and moderates who view the media as biased.

Voters are discussing Vance's interviews on left-leaning networks like CNN. Reactions are varied but generally emphasize his confrontational and assertive style. Some admire his ability to "handle" and "unload on" liberal anchors like Dana Bash. They view his performance as showing media savviness and courage to engage adversarial platforms.

Discussions also emphasize voter beliefs that media outlets bias their coverage of Vance compared to Walz. People say Vance receives scrutiny and negative coverage whereas Walz receives praise and protection. There are accusations that Wikipedia and other platforms censor Vance’s military credentials while disregarding discrepancies about Walz’s military rank.

Decreasing Support

Vance’s controversial comments about "childless cat ladies," gender, and race generally lower his approval. Many describe these remarks as misogynistic and offensive, energizing opposition particularly among women and progressive groups. His stance on abortion and advocacy for state-level control is another source of criticism. Pro-choice advocates and moderate voters in swing states generally express disapproval.

Another point of controversy is Vance’s messaging on the Child Tax Credit (CTC). Critics point to his failure to vote on the expansion of the CTC, calling him unreliable and insincere. Some question his resolve in supporting the expansion of the CTC after missing crucial votes.

Some voters call Vance a "chameleon" who changes his tune for different audiences—an accusation his supporters direct instead at Kamala Harris. Critics claim Vance lacks authenticity, saying it erodes trust with voters who are unsure of his principles.

Geographic Support

Vance's support is more robust in conservative strongholds and rural areas. In these areas, his messages about patriotism, military service, and criticism of liberal policies resonate. In urban areas, where progressive values are the norm, voters oppose him based on his controversial image, which is perpetuated by the media.

Tim Walz

Party affiliation plays a significant role in support for Tim Walz. Democratic and progressive voters cast his efforts as necessary steps to modernize and humanize state governance. These voters prioritize social equity and see Walz as a champion of these ideals. Republican and conservative voters express displeasure, accusing him of radical leftism and threatening economic freedom and individual rights.

Increasing Support

Support for Walz is driven by his progressive policies and efforts toward social equity. Democrats appreciate his push for progressive taxation, free school breakfast and lunch programs, and his push for healthcare access.

Voters view his policies as “inclusive,” with supporters praising “basic decency” and “neighborliness.” His transformations in education, focusing on cultural teaching and ethnic studies, are positive for those advocating representation and equity.

Democrats and progressives value Walz’s alignment with the Biden administration. They laud policies bolstering social welfare, LGBTQ+ issues, and sex changes for transgender youth. This group views Walz as a compassionate and progressive leader gaining momentum among urban and younger voter demographics.

Decreasing Support

The same issues generating support for Walz also drive disapproval among conservatives and moderates. Opposition to Walz is fierce, with critiques focusing on the extremes of his progressive policies. Critics label Walz as a socialist or communist.

Republicans and conservatives say Walz exacerbates racial tensions and undermines traditional American values. They criticize his actions during the BLM riots in 2020, saying he encouraged lawlessness, violence, and destruction. Walz’s involvement in the Minnesota Freedom Fund generates accusations that he eroded community safety by bailing out violent protesters.

Critics also attack his stances on gender identity, particularly the installation of tampon dispensers in boys’ bathrooms. There is negativity toward his support for “gender-affirming care” for minors, which critics call child mutilation. Walz’s public education track record also draws criticism due to declining proficiency in reading and math among Minnesota students during his tenure.

Debates over Walz's personal history and past behavior generate negativity. Allegations of stolen valor and suspicious ties with China further undermine his credibility with voters who prioritize national security and personal integrity.

There are claims about his work as a teacher in China in 1989, his yearly visits between 1996 and 2003, and his decision to honeymoon in China. Voters say these events cast a shadow over his loyalty to America. People voice suspicions of underlying influence from the Chinese Communist Party, labeling him untrustworthy and a potential security threat. Some reference his failed security clearance in 2021, questioning whether it was due to his foreign ties.

Walz’s lack of media presence also creates frustration which extends to the overall tactics of Democrats, which some say are meant to obfuscate and hide from voters. His and Kamala Harris’s failure to engage with the media fosters doubt about transparency and accountability.

Geographic Support

Urban areas, which tend to be progressive, are more likely to support Walz. They like his policies of healthcare for illegal immigrants and social justice in education. Rural areas express growing dissatisfaction. They view his policies as out of touch with their more conservative and traditional norms. Rural and conservative voters see his policies as embracing a socialist agenda that threatens economic stability and erodes their way of life.

Supporters emphasize Walz’s potential to bridge gaps in politically diverse areas. They cite his record in the U.S. Congress where he represented a conservative region of Minnesota, despite the state’s overall blue leaning. They say he understands rural America and can identify with everyday voters. However, this image is not borne out in reactions from voters in rural regions.

MIG Reports data shows increasing conversations about potential U.S. dollar decline, the Laffer Curve, and policy hypocrisy from Kamala Harris. Americans continue to discuss the Biden administration’s fiscal policies and the failure of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Some say the IRA impacted the U.S. economy positively, but many criticize its results as contradicting its promises. Negative discourse also extends to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, where inflation, interest rates, and economic management strategies further polarize opinions. Overall, there is growing apprehension about America's economic future.

Many economists utilize the Laffer Curve as a general theory, though it is not an exact instrument. The Laffer Curve illustrates the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue, showing there is an optimal tax rate which maximizes revenue. If tax rates are too low, the government collects less revenue. If tax rates are too high, it can discourage economic activity, also decreasing revenue. The curve suggests both very low and very high tax rates can negatively impact revenue.

Concerns over the implications of analysis using the Laffer Curve highlight these facts:

• 2019 tax revenue per person was $12,628 while tax spending was $16,188
• 2023 tax revenue per person was $13,341 while tax spending was $18,406
• Tax revenue per person increased by approximately 5.65%
• Tax spending per person increased by approximately 13.70%

This increased government spending continues to widen disparities between tax revenue and tax spending. In recent comments, economist Art Laffer also suggested the U.S. dollar may jeopardize its status as the world’s reserve currency saying, “the U.S. government’s use of the dollar as a political weapon, through sanctions and other measures, has eroded international trust in the currency.”

Economist Art Laffer Slams US Economic Policies, Warns of Dollar's Decline as Global Reserve Currency - #Economics https://t.co/rRPRxNCTNT

— Bitcoin.com News (@BTCTN) August 10, 2024

Harris’s Hypocritical Fiscal Policy

Voter sentiment about the Inflation Reduction Act is negative. Many blame current economic struggles on this policy—including high inflation, increased IRS oversight, and elevated costs for goods and services.

VP Kamala Harris, who cast the deciding vote to pass the IRA, regularly attracts criticism in online conversations. People describe the IRA as a political maneuver that, contrary to its name, exacerbated inflation rather than mitigating it. Many people also view it as especially harmful to low-income workers.

Harris also generates extreme negativity for recent claims in a campaign speech that she plans to remove taxes on tips. People accuse her of plagiarism, pointing out that Donald Trump began promoting this concept back in June.

People point out that Harris’s deciding vote on the IRA directly contradicts her new promise. They highlight the policy’s IRS expansions to pursue taxpayers for not paying taxes. They cite that the IRS, under the Biden-Harris administration, rolled out a “tip reporting” program in February to improve tip reporting compliance.

Kamala Harris, who now claims to be against taxing tips, was the tie-breaking vote on the Inflation Reduction Act, which expanded the IRS so it could go after people not paying taxes on tips.

Incredible stuff. The most inauthentic, astro-turfed campaign in history. pic.twitter.com/9Nne61oJPi

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) August 11, 2024

Sentiment trends are unmistakably negative when discussing Biden-Harris administration fiscal policies. People associate Harris with increased financial hardship and increasingly accuse her of disingenuous flip-flopping.

The reliability of sentiment analysis is high given the volume and consistency of negative feedback. Common themes include accusations that the IRA was a disguised effort to push progressive agendas rather than control inflation.

Voters complain that targeting tips for tax revenue, as Harris has very recently done, impacts lower income households who rely on tip wages. People allege misallocation of funds under Harris toward initiatives like climate change and say overall tax burdens on middle-class families are increasing.

Partisan proponents of the IRA and the Biden-Harris administration cite lowered prescription drug costs and clean energy advancements as key benefits. Opponents argue these benefits are overshadowed by overarching economic downturn, characterizing the IRA as a net negative.

Trump Versus Harris Tax Policies

The concept of the Laffer Curve influences discussions on tax cuts and their impact on revenue and economic growth. Some also debate fiat currency and the Federal Reserve's role in managing the U.S. dollar. Public sentiment is divided on these topics, as some distrust the Fed's control over fiat money, advocating alternatives like Bitcoin. Many Americans view the Federal Reserve as increasing inflation and debt through money printing, though some also believe it is a stabilizer in financial crises.

Sentiments towards Kamala Harris regarding the economy is largely negative. Voters are skeptical about her promises to eliminate taxes on tips. They see the claims as politically motivated, pandering, and an attempt appropriate Trump's populist policy proposals.

Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz also faces criticism for how he handled Minnesota’s budget surplus. Voters say his tax hikes during surplus periods caused inefficient economic management.

The narrative around Trump's tax policies is nostalgic as voters recall his tax cuts. There is pronounced positivity toward middle-class and small business tax savings. Voters highlight Trump's previous economic measures, like the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, as significant achievements that benefited the American workforce.

Trump's proposal earlier this year to eliminate federal tax on tips has been positively received by voters. Many suggest this is why Kamala Harris suddenly adopted the idea as well, despite looking hypocritical in doing so. People also lambast the media for how they report on Harris proposing no tax on tips versus how they reported Trump's initial proposal. One stark example gaining criticism is CBS news, which framed it as a tragic loss of tax revenue under Trump then, subsequently, a win for service and hospitality workers under Harris.

What an honest media we have.

SAME policy. Different candidates. pic.twitter.com/PJHcEB5M9y

— Wesley Hunt (@WesleyHuntTX) August 12, 2024

Trending directions indicate an increasing anxiety about the potential for recession. Americans worry about recent stock market crashes, heightened geopolitical uncertainties, and economic policies that perpetuate instability. Voters pay attention to economic indicators like unemployment rates and GDP growth. Any shifts are met with calls for urgent rate cuts to stimulate economic activity.

On Aug. 6, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. Many voters speculate Harris’s strategy was aimed at solidifying support with voters in the Midwest. Democrats are emphasizing both progressive and moderate credentials to appeal across the party’s spectrum.

MIG Reports data shows headwinds for Harris in the three days following Walz’s announcement as the Democratic VP pick:

• Harris continues to lose ground nationally against Donald Trump
• Walz’s individual support dropped from leading J.D. Vance by 3%, to trailing him by 1%.

Negativity Toward Gov. Tim Walz

On the ideological left, there is a limited amount of support for Harris-Walz. Leftists among these groups dissect Harris's campaign decisions for their shaky alignment with progressive values. Progressives express skepticism about her commitment to systemic change, often pointing to her past as a prosecutor and her perceived establishment ties.

Democrats and progressives who approve of Walz express hope that he can strengthen Harris’s appeal to rural and Midwestern voters while reinforcing progressive policies. However, this hope seems largely negated by voter sentiment in Midwest states like Wisconsin.

• Despite an initial boost on Aug. 6, Kamala Harris’s approval in Wisconsin has since dropped to net -1% relative to her support prior to adding Walz to the ticket.
• In Ohio, Harris saw a 4% bump with her VP announcement, which dropped back down to 46% in the following days.
• Similarly in Michigan Harris has not held her VP bump, dropping back down from 49% on Aug. 6 to 47% today.

Moderates and centrists are a challenge for Harris, creating a need to prevent herself from being perceived as far-left. Critical issues like the economy, border, and national security draw sharp negativity from important voter groups.

Despite the Harris campaign attempting to frame Walz as a moderate who appeals to both progressives and centrists, MIG Reports data shows online sentiment is predominantly negative. The campaign’s framing effort is often met with skepticism and outright rejection. Dissatisfied voters are quick to highlight Walz’s record as extremely far left.

Many Midwestern voters also highlight geographic and cultural rifts. They claim coastal democrats have misunderstood Midwestern moderates. They view Walz’s policies as reshaping Minnesota into a facsimile of California's liberal agenda. This comparison highlights growing divides on the left between far left progressives and moderate and blue-collar Democrats.

Top issues causing negativity toward Walz include:

• Walz role in allowing and possibly abetting BLM riots in Minneapolis in 2020
• His position on transgender issues and child sex-change surgeries
• Concerning ties Walz has with China and travel there as a teacher
• Widespread allegations of stolen valor
• His extremely progressive immigration policies
• Walz’s poor fiscal record of government over-spending in Minnesota
• His stringent enforcement of 2020 COVID lockdowns

National approval for Walz has been volatile in the last month. In mid-July, Walz saw approval highs of 48% and a low of 37%.

• Since being chosen as the Democratic VP candidate, Walz's approval has dropped from 49% to 46%.
• A month ago, online mentions of Tim Walz only averaged 38 per day. With his announcement as Harris’ running mate, mentions spiked to 23,936, dropping back to around 10,000 in the following days.

Voter Group Reactions

Democrats

Among Democrats, many highlight Tim Walz's legislative achievements and progressive credentials. Proponents celebrate his moves to provide universal free school meals, legalize cannabis, enact carbon-free electricity mandates, and establish paid family leave policies.

Walz's supporters argue his executive experience and progressive policies align with Kamala Harris's vision for America. They spotlight his efforts in sectors like education, climate change, and healthcare.

National Democratic figures like Nancy Pelosi and David Axelrod have defended Walz, indicating his acceptance among influential party members. However, these support pillars do not translate to more moderate Democratic voters.

Moderate Democrats express concern about Walz’s progressive track record. They worry about the backlash against his handling of BLM protests and his controversial COVID "snitch line." Walz's advocacy for defunding police and support for youth gender surgeries also alienates centrist Democrats in swing states who view these policies as too radical.

Republicans

Predictably, Republican and conservative voters are sharply critical of Walz. They decry his role during BLM protests in Minnesota, accusing him of allowing riots and chaos. Conservatives view Walz as overly radical, emphasizing his ties to socialist policies and his progressive stance on LGBTQ issues.

Republicans suggest Walz solidifies a leftward shift on the Democratic ticket. This, they argue, is contrary to the values of mainstream America.

Much of the discourse among Republicans—with growing media acknowledgement—outlines allegations of repeated stolen valor by Walz. Evidence has emerged that Wal retired from the National Guard to avoid deployment and misrepresented his rank and service record. This scandal elicits strong negativity from veterans, voters who value support for the U.S. military, and moderate demographics who emphasize valor and honor in service.

Independents and moderates

Some Independents appreciate Walz's tangible policy achievements and his Midwestern roots. They hope this can help the Democratic ticket gain traction in critical swing states. However, support among those who would have appreciated Walz's military background wavers with more information about his alleged stolen valor.

Many are also concerned about how he managed 2020 protests and view his policies as too extreme. His COVID lockdown policies also generate disapproval—especially in discussion about creating a "snitch line" to report anyone violating lockdown orders. These are major sticking points for moderates and Independents, could jeopardize support.

Geographic Voter Groups

Geographically, the reaction to Walz varies. In Minnesota and neighboring Midwestern states, his candidacy elicits strong responses, both positive and negative. These regions have witnessed his governorship firsthand, causing many to express dissatisfaction.

In contrast, coastal states inclined towards more progressive policies seem to respond more favorably to Walz. They align with progressive values but believe Walz could shore up moderate appeal.

In traditionally conservative regions, especially the South and parts of the Midwest, criticism reigns. These regions frame Walz’s policies as emblematic of excessive government intervention and radicalism.

• In swing states, Walz does not meaningfully boost Kamala Harris’s support.
• Since Walz’s announcement as VP pick, Kamala Harris has lost ground against Donald Trump in swing states, going from a 50%-46% Trump lead to 52%-44%.