The public discourse surrounding the possible legal consequences for Donald Trump and the potential politicization of the justice system reveals a generally partisan landscape of opinions.

Overall, the data reveals a sense of disillusionment and frustration with the current state of the country. These sentiments tend to be shared by members of all political affiliations and could be a driving force behind the different perspectives on Trump’s legal challenges. There is a shared sentiment of dissatisfaction and frustration with the state of the nation.

Trump’s Approval Across Political Affiliations

• Trump’s overall approval has averaged 48% in the last 15 days.
• Sentiment towards Trump, specifically related to his legal cases, is slightly lower, averaging 46% in the last 15 days.
• Data suggests people feel more negatively about Trump’s legal challenges compared to his platform as a whole.

Republicans Feel the Courts Are Biased

In general, Republicans seem concerned across the board about the potential for political bias within the justice system and weaponization of the courts against conservatives.

Skepticism Toward Current Indictments

• Allegations of corruption and personal misconduct against individuals involved in the lawsuits, such as Fani Willis, cause Republicans discredit the cases.
• Republicans question the impartiality of Special Counsel Jack Smith and Judge Chutkan, suggesting they have overstepped their authority or misused their power.
• There are some Republicans who express reservations about Trump's character and conduct, indicating a split within the party.
• Frequently, there are assertions that the justice system is being used as a political tool by Democrats and "radical liberal" judges to hinder Trump’s reelection bid.
• The postponement and removal of Trump's trial from the federal court's public docket is seen as a possible indication of a lack of concrete evidence against him.

Concerns of Bias and Selective Prosecution

• Republicans express fears that the system is being unfairly used against Trump and other conservative figures.
• They tend to view the legal cases against Trump as politically motivated attempts to tarnish his reputation and undermine his achievements.
• They believe these lawsuits are part of a larger pattern of witch-hunting and political persecution led by Democrats.
• In general, there’s a sense of inconsistency in how the law is applied, such as activists tearing down historical statues being treated differently than the destruction of a “Satanic” statue.
• Conversation suggests that Republicans believe there is a double standard at play, with actions against conservative figures or symbols being treated more harshly.

Democrats Approve of Consequences for Trump

Democrats are more likely to view the potential legal consequences for Trump as legitimate and necessary.

Belief that Trump is Guilty

• A large portion of Democrats believe that Trump has committed a variety of violations ranging from sexual misconduct to financial fraud.
• This group generally denies claims of the justice system being used as a political weapon, arguing that the legal cases simply reflect the rule of law.
• Many argue that the justice system is doing its job by holding Trump accountable for his alleged actions and is not being used as a political tool against him.
• It seems a large swath of Democrats perceive the lawsuits and investigations as necessary checks on his actions and power.
• However, there is a noticeable portion of Democrats who express concern about the potential misuse of the justice system for political gains.
• There are also some Democrats who worry that allegations about Fani Willis could potentially taint the proceedings against Trump.

Pushback Against Trump’s Reelection Campaign

• There is an argument from Democrats that Trump should not be listed on future Republican primary ballots.
• Accusations of corruption, tax evasion, and dictatorial tendencies recur throughout the discourse, fanning the flames that he is unfit to be reelected.
• There are assertions that Trump is a threat to democracy and needs to be held accountable for his alleged crimes.
• There is concern over Trump's comments about becoming a "day-one dictator" if re-elected, implying many Democrats believed it was more than a jest.

Independents Are Divided on Trump Indictments

Independents seem to have a more divided consensus than the two partisan sides. Some echo Democrat concerns about Trump's alleged crimes and the need for accountability. Others express suspicions about the politicization of justice.

General Dissatisfaction With Both Political Parties

• One of the main themes among Independents is a frustration with the perceived corruption and bias in both political parties.
• Some Independents accuse Biden of reinstating Trump's policies and taking credit for them.
• There is some agreement with Nikki Haley's comments implying that Trump should be focused on the American people rather than on his legal issues.
• Some argue there is clear evidence of corruption in Trump's actions. They point to his alleged attempts to interfere with the legal process and protect his political allies.
• Independents seem to dislike the substantial amount of money (around $50 million) spent by PACs supporting Trump to cover his legal bills.

Concern Over Potential Threats to Democracy

• Many are concerned about the potential politicization of the justice system, regardless of whether they believe Trump is guilty or innocent of the charges against him.
• There’s a distinct group who say they will not vote for Trump, but seem to believe his legal issues could potentially undermine the legal system and democratic processes.
• A common argument against the legal proceedings is the potential conflict of interest over Fani Willis’s personal relationship with Nathan Wade.
• Trump's remarks about being a “dictator” are viewed with concern, as they can be interpreted as a willingness to overstep legal and constitutional boundaries.

The Democratic Party’s divide between its establishment base and progressive branches is growing. Overall, there seems to be a split among Democrats and progressives, with some continuing to support Israel's right to defend itself and others advocating for a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with an emphasis on human rights and international law. There is a strong sentiment of frustration towards the amount of military aid going to Israel, with some suggesting it should be reduced or cut off completely.

Some Democrats are supportive of the US's military aid to Israel, viewing it as necessary to combat threats from Hamas and other destabilizing forces in the Middle East. They believe that Iran, backed by Russia and China, is a significant threat to global peace, and that the US and its allies must remain vigilant. They also argue that Hamas has been a significant contributor to the ongoing conflict and suffering in Gaza, using aid money for military purposes instead of improving the lives of Palestinians.

On the other hand, there are Democrats and progressives who are critical of the US's military aid to Israel. They condemn the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and argue for a reassessment of the US's loyalty to Israel. They are concerned about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, accusing Israel of blocking aid and contributing to the suffering of the Palestinian people. Some go as far as calling for an end to US funding for Israel, equating Israel's actions in Gaza to genocide.

Talking About (Democrats)

Some of the more progressive Democrats express a sense of betrayal, calling it a "huge concession" that the bipartisan border-Israel-Ukraine package blocks all funding for UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East) from the US. They object to the idea of providing more money for Israel while reducing aid to Palestinian children.

The discussions also reveal a concern among Democrats about the potential implications of not passing the bill. Some users note that failure to pass the bill could lead to direct military confrontations in the Middle East and against Russia, suggesting a fear of escalation.

National Conversation About the Border

The online discussions about the US border are rife with emotion and conflicting opinions. An underlying theme in these discussions is the perceived failure of both the federal government and the GOP to protect Americans.

Greg Abbott

A key figure in these discussions is Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who is both lauded and criticized for his stance on border control.

• Abbott‘s statement against the Supreme Court's ruling allowing razor wire to be removed from the southern border has sparked fervent responses.
• Supporters applaud his assertion of Texas's rights against what they perceive as a federal government overreach.
• They view the situation at the southern border as an "invasion," expressing fears about illegal immigration and Texas.
• Critics accuse him of fearmongering and of being absent during what he himself has labeled a crisis.

Donald Trump

Another key figure in the national conversation is Donald Trump.

• Many support Trump‘s wall as a means to control immigration, while others see it as an ineffective and divisive measure.
• Critics point out that the wall not only failed to solve the immigration issue but also inadvertently created easy access points for smugglers.
• They further argue that the situation at the border could have been prevented had Trump been competent in his initial attempts to build the wall.

Farmers

American farmers are also highlighted in the discussion, with some Americans praising them for supporting Texas in its efforts to stem the perceived "invasion" at the southern border.

Ilhan Omar

Multiple people express strong negative sentiments towards Representative Ilhan Omar, often linking her to what they perceive as an open-border policy.

• Commentors believe Omar‘s stance threatens national security.
• There are frequent calls for her to be removed from Congress and deported.
• Many are pointing to a perceived lack of allegiance to the US.
• A significant group of Americans seem to identify Omar as a key figure negatively affecting the border situation.

Democrats Overall

There's also a significant, recurring narrative that accuses Democrats of wanting open borders to score political points.

• Some suggest that this is a strategy to attract future voters from among illegal immigrants.
• Others accuse Republicans of creating fear and anger around the issue for their political gain.
• The current administration is frequently criticized for its perceived attempts to allow open borders and endanger the country.

Support for Key Figures Involved in Border Issues

James Lankford

There is no conversation specifically mentioning Sen. Lankford.

• In the last 7 days, Lankford’s average approval was 50%. Today it sits at 49%.

  

Joe Biden

• Many people blame Biden for the influx of illegal immigrants.
• There is criticism of the so-called "Biden-McConnell open borders amnesty bill," which some users feel would only increase illegal immigration.
• Biden’s 7-day average national approval rating was 47%. Today it’s 44%.
• His average approval in swing states over the last 7 days was 42%. Today it’s 42%.

Alejandro Mayorkas

• Some users believe Mayorkas is corrupt and accuse him of breaking the law.
• Calls for his impeachment, claiming he and Biden have committed treason by not fulfilling their oaths of office and endangering American citizens.
• In the last 7 days, Mayorkas’s average approval rating was 45%, and 43% today.

  

Greg Abbott

• There is praise for his efforts to protect the Texas border and his attempts to rally support from other states to address the situation.
• Governor Abbott is seen as a strong leader by many.
• There is some criticism with some attributing the state's immigration issues to his governance.
• Discussion about Abbott's controversial decision to send busloads of immigrants to other states. Some say it’s an attempt to avoid addressing the root of the problem.
• In the last 7 days, Abbott’s average approval rating was 47%. Today it sits at 47%.

What Are MAGA and Progressive?

There are some clear trends in how people use and perceive the concepts of “MAGA” versus “Progressive.” In general, MAGA is associated with pro-Trump Republicans. The term progressive is generally associated with liberal or left-leaning politics. However, there are some varying definitions and perceptions for each word, depending on a group or person’s viewpoint.

How MAGA is Used

• MAGA is often linked with a conservative political stance.
• Discussions frequently referring to traditional values, resistance to “wokeness” or progressive ideologies, and an emphasis on patriotism.
• Supporters view MAGA as a symbol of defiance against political correctness.
• MAGA is often used to express support for stricter border control and election integrity.
• The term is often used pejoratively by those who disagree with these views, associating MAGA with regression, intolerance, divisiveness, and a lack of progress.
• However, supporters of MAGA tend to view it positively, associating it with a return to perceived traditional American values and norms.

How Progressive is Used

• The term “progressive” is often associated with left-wing politics, social justice issues, inclusivity, and change.
• Progressive is frequently used to criticize the Biden administration's handling of border control and economic issues.
• Critics of progressives often use the term “woke,” implying that progressives are overly sensitive and focused on political correctness
• Supporters of progressivism view it as a necessary drive towards social and economic justice and equality.
• MIG data shows the term “progressive” is often used online negatively toward those with left-leaning politics. Liberals themselves seem to use it less often in these discussions.
• A possible conclusion could be that “progressive” is losing effectiveness as a branding term.

MAGA Conservatives

According to MIG data, the perception of MAGA among conservatives includes:

• A strong stance on the US border including support for stricter security and physical barriers.
• Prioritizing America’s issues and struggles at home as opposed to over-funding foreign aid.
• There are internal debates within MAGA about how the party should be lead and whether Republicans can find unity.
• Donald Trump remains the figurehead of the MAGA movement and feelings of negativity or positivity toward MAGA correlate with feelings about Trump.
• There are internal disagreements within MAGA between populist and conservative views of abortion.
• MAGA supporters often express strong support for Israel, viewing it as an ally in the Middle East and criticizing Hamas for the escalation of violence.

The discussions show that conservatives view MAGA positively, associating it with personal freedom, protection of individual rights, and a bulwark against perceived threats like big tech censorship, 'woke' culture, and perceived liberal agenda.

Progressive Democrats

According to MIG data, the perception of progressives among left-leaning people includes:

• Leftists generally view progressives favorably, seeing them as advocates for social justice, diversity, and equity.
• Progressives are seen as champions of change, fighting for issues like race and gender equality, and climate change.
• There’s support for plight of the Palestinians and criticism of Israel for what leftists perceive as disproportionate use of force and violation of human rights.
• Discussions about the economy and taxes are relatively low, suggesting either lack of concern among leftists or quiet disagreement with progressive economic polices.
• Progressives are not directly mentioned in discussions on the border but are implicitly positioned as the ideological opponents of MAGA conservatives.
• Overall, on the top trending topics that do not include social justice and equity issues, there is low discussion volume among progressives and democrats.

The discussions show that liberals view progressivism positively, associating it with gender equality, social justice, diversity, and .

Moderates and Independents on MAGA vs Progressive

There is a clear distinction between how conservatives view MAGA and how moderates and independents see it. Similarly, leftists view progressives positively and the perception by moderates and independents tends to be more negative. The perception of both MAGA and progressives seems to be largely influenced by political affiliation, leaving moderates skeptical.

MAGA

• Some moderates perceive MAGA positively for its focus on economic growth and national pride.
• MAGA has recently gained some support from moderates and independents on things like the Texas border crisis and child sex change operations.
• There are concerns about divisive rhetoric, perceived authoritarianism, and its association with far-right ideologies.
• Many moderates perceive MAGA as an extreme or radical representation of conservative politics.
• There is criticism for controversial aspects like a perceived association with nationalism, xenophobia, and aggressive foreign policies.
• While some moderates are critical of Biden, they express skepticism about the effectiveness of MAGA’s impeachment push as a solution.
• Many moderates express dislike for Trump and an unwillingness to vote for him.

Progressives

• Some moderates appreciate the progressive focus on social issues and equality, others express concern about perceived radicalism, identity politics.
• Moderates and independents tend to support progressive views on abortion and criticize MAGA for its perceived stance on women’s health.
• There is also criticism among independents for a perceived disregard for economic realities in leftist politics and Bidenomics.
• Many moderates are critical of progressive attitudes toward the Israel-Hamas conflict.
• There is dislike for progressive silence on the border and are perceived as promoting open borders and enabling illegal immigration.
• Some feel that the progressive movement is too focused on symbolic gestures rather than substantive policy changes.

Online discussions about union support for Donald Trump and union leadership support for Joe Biden reveal a spectrum of opinions. Some posts accuse UAW union bosses of not representing their members and claim that Biden has worked against the interests of auto workers. These posts often argue that the union leadership has sided with the Biden administration, which they believe has harmed working-class Americans.

American workers seem divided in their support for Trump's and Biden's policies, with some expressing strong support for Trump's policies and others strongly supporting Biden's policies. However, the general sentiment towards the Biden administration's union policies seems negative, with many comments calling for his impeachment.

Raises Trump's Support:

1. Hiring union workers.
2. Strong stance on border issues.
3. Support from the Republican party.
4. Perceived financial acumen due to billionaire status.
5. Opposition to mass migration.

Lowers Trump's Support:

1. Perceived disregard for the working man.
2. Alleged history of not paying workers.
3. Perceived prioritization of billionaires over workers.
4. Accusations of using border issues for campaign reasons.
5. Negative sentiment from union leadership.

Union Approval - Trump vs Biden

Raises Biden's Support:

1. Policies believed to create jobs.
2. Enforcing strong labor standards.
3. Proposals for clean energy.
4. Perceived willingness to negotiate on issues like border control.
5. Support from union members.

Lowers Biden's Support:

1. Accusations of ignoring border crisis.
2. Perceived lack of strong stance on border issues.
3. Lack of significant discourse on his union policies.
4. Perceived partisan politics.
5. Absence of notable union endorsements.

Wages and Salaries

Under Trump's Administration

• Some dissatisfaction with what they perceived as globalist control over union leadership
• Criticism of UAW President's negative comments about Trump, with suggestions that this reflected a broader trend of union leadership being out of touch with their members' interests
• Supporters of Trump's policies argued that his promises of Rust Belt revitalization were being undermined by union leaders aligned with the Democratic Party.

Under Biden’s Administration

• Substantial support for his policies, particularly those perceived as promoting social and racial justice.
• These supporters often used the term "woke" in a positive context, arguing that being aware of and actively attentive to important facts and issues, especially issues of racial and social justice, was a crucial part of supporting Biden's policies.
• Also criticism of Biden's policies, arguing that a focus on "woke" politics was alienating certain sections of society and that this could harm support for unions
• Some concerns that Biden's policies were putting American citizens at risk, particularly in relation to immigration.

Union Trends

Union membership rate of public-sector workers (32.5%) continued to be more than five times higher than the rate of private-sector workers (6%).

The highest unionization rates were among workers in education, training, and library occupations (32.7%) and protective service occupations (31.9%).

Percentage of Workforce Union Membership Over Time

(Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Discussions online about the recent SCOTUS ruling that Texas must not use razor wire at the border are highly charged and divided. The majority of sentiments expressed are in favor of border control measures. Many express frustration towards the Republican party's actions regarding immigration policy and border control.

• Between 6,000 and 14,000 people have been talking about border and immigration issues daily in the last week.
• Public sentiment towards border issues in the last 7 days averaged 45%.

What Texans are Saying About the Border

• Texans show strong support for the enforcement of border control measures.
• Many Texans are outspoken about their belief in the need for a physical barrier, such as a wall, to deter illegal border crossings.
• There is great support for the actions of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and criticism of the Biden administration's immigration policies.
• A majority of Texans are critical of SCOTUS' ruling to remove the razor wire.
• Abbott supporters argue that the state's actions are necessary to ensure security and protect against threats such as drug cartels and human trafficking.
• Some also contend that federal interference in the state's efforts to control the border is unwarranted.
• A recurring sentiment is that voters support legal immigration, but not illegal immigration.
• Many commenters express support for Texas' stance on immigration.
• Texans applaud Abbott's actions, such as deporting over 100,000 undocumented immigrants, and seem to favor strict border control measures.
• Voters are critical of supposed conservative leaders whom they perceive as not adhering strictly to conservative principles, including Justice Barrett.
• There is a sense of dissatisfaction with the current Republican party in Texas, with calls for more conservative leadership and criticism of perceived liberal agendas.
• Many express readiness to assist in defending the border, criticizing the federal government.
• A minority contingent of people condemn the use of razor wire as inhumane and dangerous.

Overall, the majority of the discussions reveal a split within the Republican party in Texas between those who align more with MAGA and more moderate or 'establishment' Republicans.

Approval for Texas Leaders

• In the days following the SCOTUS ruling allowing razor wire to be removed from the Texas border, Greg Abbott’s approval increased from 45% a week ago to 51% today.
• Ken Paxton’s approval increased from 47% a week ago to 50% today.

Reactions to Biden Administration Policy

• Public sentiment towards the Biden administration's immigration policies is overwhelmingly negative.
• There is a stark contrast between the collective sentiment towards the federal government's immigration policies and the state of Texas' stance on the issue.
• There is a general sentiment that Biden is prioritizing illegal immigrants over US citizens.
• Many people believe the Biden administration's policies are ineffective and have led to an increase in illegal border crossings.
• The sentiment is that Biden is not taking the necessary steps to secure the southern border and is contributing to an "invasion" at the southern border.
• Most commenters express strong opposition to what they perceive as an "open border" policy, and are advocating for stricter border control measures.
• Some progressive voices are present in the discussions, expressing support for a more diverse and progressive platform. However, these voices are in the minority.

Solutions the People Want

• Some propose the creation of a human wall or using the homeless population as a deterrent.
• Others suggest the construction of an electric fence.
• Many express support for more stringent measures, such as the use of razor wire at the border.
• There is also a call for state governors to bolster their State Guards in response to perceived federal government inaction.
• Some have expressed a desire for mass deportations, while others argue that such an approach would be unrealistic or result in conflict.
• Voters call for politicians who support open borders to step forward, suggesting a desire for transparency and accountability.
• There are repeated calls for the governor to declare the situation an "invasion," which could trigger legal authority for Texas to protect its own border.

In conclusion, the SCOTUS ruling and the broader issue of border control is a contentious topic amongst Texans and Americans in general. Overall sentiment leans towards a more conservative approach to immigration, with criticism directed at both state and federal officials for perceived inaction or leniency.

There is a clear divide within the Republican party in Texas, and a desire for more conservative leadership. Despite this, there is also a minority progressive voice advocating for more inclusion and border leniency.

New Hampshire - What Happened

The New Hampshire GOP primary demonstrated a clear victory for Donald Trump, with his total votes exceeding the entire vote count of the 2016 primary.

Trump's overwhelming victory can be attributed to his strong ground effort and appeal among registered GOP voters. He won 74% of the registered GOP vote, demonstrating his enduring popularity within the Republican party. Conversely, Haley's campaign impressed with independents, winning 65% of their support. This suggests that Haley's message appeals to a broader base, potentially including some Democrats.

While it's hard to ascertain from the data provided whether Democrats were supporting Haley, her strong performance among independents suggests some cross-over appeal. Similarly, it's unclear which candidate attracted libertarian voters, but Trump's strong showing among registered GOP voters suggests he may have been their preferred choice.

What Was On The Ballot?

Without specific polling data on the top issues for Trump and Haley voters, it is difficult to determine what their key priorities were. However, given Trump's past campaigns and his base of support, it is reasonable to guess that issues like immigration, trade, and a strong economy were likely important to his supporters. Haley's supporters, on the other hand, may have been more attracted to her international experience and more traditional conservative stances.

It’s also worth noting that some comments suggest a portion of Libertarian voters might have supported Trump over Haley. This is indicative of Trump’s appeal to anti-establishment voters who prioritize issues such as individual liberties and small government, which are hallmarks of Libertarian ideology. The top three issues appear to be:

Trump

• Anti-establishment
• More conservative governance
• America-first policies

Haley

• Anti-Trump, Pro-Establishment
• Traditional GOP
• Challenging Trump’s control

However, there is a growing call among some voters for Haley to drop out of the primary. The argument is that the money being spent on her campaign could be better utilized in other crucial races, such as those for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, or gubernatorial seats. Trump is running unopposed in the Nevada Caucus and presumed to win all 26 delegates.

Nevada - What’s Next

Donald Trump's campaign has been marked by significant successes, making him the first non-sitting Republican candidate to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire. His campaign has effectively mobilized his base and resonated with voters, resulting in tangible victories. Nikki Haley's campaign appears to be facing challenges, despite a surge of Democratic votes in the Republican primary in New Hampshire. This perception of Haley as a 'swamp shill', as reflected in public sentiments, has also been detrimental to her campaign.

Trump vs Haley (Nevada)

How Do Voters See It?

Negative sentiments surrounding Haley's campaign have been increasing, with many believing that she has little chance of beating Trump and that her continued presence in the race is damaging to the GOP. These sentiments are further fueled by the belief that she will likely lose the primary in South Carolina, her home state.

In contrast, Trump's campaign is surrounded by mostly positive themes, with supporters praising his leadership and his potential to secure a landslide victory. Despite some criticisms about his focus on loyalty, his support levels seem to be consistently high.

Raising Trump support

• Strong leadership
• America-first policies
• Electability in November

Lowering Trump support

• Threat of potential indictments
• Perceived shift from traditional GOP values

Raising Haley support

• Fresh start in the GOP

Lowering Haley support

• Endorsing candidates against Trump
• Divisiveness within the party, Democrat in disguise
• Refusal to drop out

The New Hampshire GOP primary is garnering significant attention with key players including former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. The endorsement of Trump by Ron DeSantis seems to have contributed to Trump's edge in the race. Recent polling identifies Donald Trump receiving around 50% support, while MIG reporting is currently at 59%

Heading into the vote, Trump seems to have the support of the conservative base of the Republican party, while Haley seems to be the preferred choice for moderate Republicans and those dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden. There is also a significant percentage of the population open to a third-party candidate, as indicated by the readiness of the No Labels Unity Party to put forth a candidate if Haley does not get the GOP nomination.

Donald Trump's campaign appears to be gathering momentum, after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump. Many have speculated that this endorsement may cement Trump's standing in the race. The endorsement was hinted at by Rep. Matt Gaetz during a Trump event in Manchester, NH, which has generated much chatter in the political circuit.

On the other hand, Nikki Haley's campaign has been characterized by a mix of support and criticism. Haley, a self-proclaimed globalist, has been criticized for her association with the World Economic Forum (WEF) and their Agenda 2030, which some fear could massively limit personal freedoms. Her endorsement by Asa Hutchinson has also led to accusations that she is backed by elites.

Top Ten Discussions

1. The endorsement of Trump by Ron DeSantis.
2. The perceived bias in certain polls favoring Haley
3. The controversial tactics employed by MAGA extremists.
4. The potential of a third-party candidate by the No Labels Unity Party.
5. The public sentiment towards each candidate.
6. The potential of Haley beating Biden in the general election.
7. The divide among Republican voters.
8. Trump and Biden's close competition within the margin of error in some polls.
9. The possibility of a Biden/Trump rematch in the upcoming election.
10. The speculation about the potential failure of either Trump or Biden in certain areas.

Trump's recent historical win in Iowa seems to have bolstered his support in New Hampshire as well, with many staunch Republicans backing him as the only viable candidate who can beat President Biden in the general election. There's a strong sentiment among these supporters that Trump is the true defender of the American Constitution and the values it represents. Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley have distinct campaign narratives and differing levels of support, which have been shaped by various factors, including their performances in the Iowa Caucus and the endorsement of Trump by Vivek Ramaswamy. Interestingly, there’s continued conversation of final weeks’ campaign spending and effect in the Iowa caucus.

• Trump’s campaign spent $3.5 million on advertising, securing 54,783 votes, which translates to $63.88 per vote. This efficient campaign spending demonstrates Trump's enduring popularity within the party.
• Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, spent $6.1 million for 22,803 votes in the Iowa Caucus, equating to $268 per vote.
• Nikki Haley’s campaign spent a significant $7.8 million in the Iowa Caucus to secure 20,446 votes, equating to $381.49 per vote.

Looking back at the results from the Iowa caucus, we see a trend of strong support for anti-establishment figures. If this sentiment carries over into New Hampshire, it could benefit Trump, who has long positioned himself as an outsider fighting against the "establishment." Trump’s support received an overnight bump of approximately 7% and is back to over 50%, mirroring his results of the Iowa Caucus. DeSantis, with his strong stance on state rights versus federal overreach, could also capitalize on this sentiment. Haley, however, may struggle if the New Hampshire electorate continues to lean anti-establishment.

What’s On The Ballot?

Online sentiment in New Hampshire indicates several topics which either increases support for Trump or decreases support for Haley, DeSantis:

• Globalism, Trade, and Foreign Relations - negatively impacting Haley due to perceived support for the World Economic Forum's Agenda 2030 and soft on China.
• Immigration - Online discussions suggest that immigration might be a key issue for voters, which may favor Trump more despite perception of Haley's toughness on the border,
• Candidate Credibility - Voters appear to be assessing the candidates on their perceived ability to effectively lead and manage the nation, as evident in the criticism of Haley and DeSantis.
• Anti-Trump, Pro-Establishment Sentiment - For some voters, their support for Haley seems to be driven more by their dislike for Trump than their liking for Haley.
• Evangelicals & Non-College Educated - Haley's lack of appeal to this demographic and Ramaswamy's appeal to this group suggests that their concerns and preferences are shaping the race.
• Political strategies - Voters are attentive to each candidate's strategy, as shown by the commentary on Haley's decision not to participate in the debates unless Trump does.

Specific issues may vary between states and individuals, but there is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change among the GOP primary voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Similar to the Iowa voters, there is a sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change in the government. This is evidenced by the call for a strong candidate who can defeat Biden and the concerns about election integrity.

Trump’s dominant win in Iowa has set a high bar, while DeSantis and Haley are offering distinct alternatives to Trump's style and politics. In a curious twist, some Democrats are reportedly willing to caucus for Haley if it boosts her chances against Trump, even though they plan to vote for Biden in the general election. This underlines the complexity of the political landscape and the high stakes of this election. It also demonstrates the level of opposition to a potential Trump nomination within sections of both the Democratic and Republican electorate.

Candidate Approval - Trump Alone Above 50%

The criticism of both Haley and DeSantis for representing "same old" politics suggests that there may be a desire for a more non-traditional candidate. New Hampshire’s primary is shaping up to be a closely contested race. Trump's strong, albeit divisive, support base, DeSantis's as-yet unclear position, and Haley's potential appeal to cross-party voters could all impact the eventual outcome.

• Nikki Haley, despite underperforming in the Iowa caucus, seems to have a unique appeal, especially among Democrats who seem to prefer her over President Biden. Her campaign has focused on her electability, with canvassers in New Hampshire emphasizing her potential to defeat Biden in a general election. However, there are also voters who have expressed strong opposition to her, using the hashtag #NeverNikki, suggesting a divided public sentiment towards her candidacy.