Prior to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out and endorsing Donald Trump for president, MIG Reports data showed voter inclination to switch loyalties. Through a weighted analysis of online discussions and sentiment, data suggests up to 50% of potential RFK Jr. voters would crossover to vote for Trump and another 30% likely to sit out.

As I predicted yesterday, RFK Junior will drop out of the race on Friday and endorse President Trump in a national address streamed to all major platforms. This is fantastic news for America and the entire world. We can stop World War III together. pic.twitter.com/jRYpid0ofG

— Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones) August 22, 2024

Sentiment and Support Dynamics

Across datasets and prior to RFK Jr.’s Friday announcement, there was significant discussion about the possibility he would suspend his campaign and endorse Trump. Weighing the data, it becomes clear that around 50% of RFK Jr.'s supporters are likely to shift their votes to Trump with an endorsement.

This shift is driven primarily by shared concerns about the current direction of the Democratic Party, particularly under the leadership of Kamala Harris. Supporters express a strong desire for unity against what they perceive as a leftward shift, and they see Trump as a vehicle for achieving this unity.

Despite this strong inclination toward supporting Trump, there is also a notable divide within RFK Jr.'s base. Approximately 30% of his supporters may choose to abstain from voting altogether rather than align with Trump. This group is driven by ideological differences and concerns that an endorsement would betray the more progressive or independent values that RFK Jr. has represented. This internal conflict highlights tension among his supporters, who are torn between pragmatic political alignment and maintaining their core principles.

Key Issues for RFK Jr. Voters

Economy

Economic concerns, particularly inflation and job security, are highly influential for this group. Many of RFK Jr.'s supporters view Trump's economic policies as more favorable compared to Biden-Harris polices. This economic focus drives a significant portion of the sentiment in favor of Trump, as supporters fear the impact of ineffective or damaging Democratic policies.

Vaccines

Vaccine mandates and health-related issues also emerge as critical points of discussion. RFK Jr. has been a vocal critic of vaccine mandates, and this stance resonates strongly with his supporters. The potential for him to influence health policy in a Trump administration, possibly through a cabinet position, is a major factor in the discussions. Supporters who prioritize these issues are more likely to favor a shift to Trump, seeing it as a way to advance their agenda.

Concerns of Authoritarianism

However, identity politics and broader ideological concerns create a counterbalance to RFK Jr. voters shifting support to Trump. Many in Kennedy’s base remain skeptical of aligning with Trump due to concerns about the potential erosion of civil liberties and the integrity of democratic principles. These discussions often involve fears about authoritarianism and a loss of individual freedoms, which are core to the values of many of his supporters.

The Bottom Line

The analysis reveals a complex and divided landscape among RFK Jr.'s supporters. While around 50% are likely to shift their votes to Trump with an RFK Jr. endorsement, about 30% are hesitant to support Trump and may abstain from voting. This divide underscores the challenges RFK Jr. faces in leaving the Democratic party and realigning his political identity. Discussions reflect a broader struggle within his base, where the tension between pragmatism and principle continues to shape their political choices.

This chart demonstrates the frequency with which specific keywords—such as "Endorse Trump," "Cabinet Position," "Unite," "Save America," and "Communism"—are mentioned across three different discussion datasets: All Discussions, National Discussions, and Election Discussions.

• "Endorse Trump" is prominent theme, particularly in the Election Discussions category, indicating strong interest in RFK Jr.'s potential alignment with Trump.
• "Cabinet Position" is also frequently discussed, especially in the All Discussions category, reflecting speculation about RFK Jr.'s possible role in a Trump administration.
• "Unite" and "Save America" highlight broader aspirations for unity and preservation of perceived traditional values, though these are less dominant.
• "Communism" emerges as a concern primarily in National Discussions, signaling fears about perceived leftward shifts in the Democratic Party.

The absence of several prominent Democrats from the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago is raising questions about the Party's unity. Many attribute absences to political strategy for Democrats in key down-ballot races. However, it also underscores the growing division in a typically unified Party.

A few prominent Democratic Senators are skipping the DNC including:

• Sherrod Brown
• Jon Tester
• Jacky Rosen
• Martin Heinrich
• John Fetterman

Voters are discussing the implications for upcoming elections—particularly in swing states where incumbents face tough re-election battles. Though Fetterman is not up for reelection, many point out his recurring clashes with the left over the border and Israel.

Other Democratic representatives not in attendance include Yadira Caraveo, Val Hoyle, Jared Golden, Mary Sattler Peltola, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

Tough Races in Swing States

Democratic Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Jon Tester of Montana, and Jacky Rosen of Nevada are all engaged in challenging re-election campaigns in states that have trended Republican in recent years. Many assume their decisions to forego the DNC, where Vice President Kamala Harris is being coronated to the nomination, is strategic.

Voters conclude these Democrats in important races hope to distance themselves from the national Party’s increasingly progressive platform. However, most of these candidates have endorsed the Harris-Walz ticket—with the exception of Tester in Montana.

MIG Reports data shows currently:

• Republican Bernie Moreno is leading Sherrod Brown in Ohio 52% to 48%.
• Republican Tim Sheehy is leading John Tester in Montana 52% to 48%.
• Jacky Rosen is leading Republican Sam Brown in Nevada 52% to 48%
• Martin Heinrich is leading Republican Nella Domenici in New Mexico 54% to 46%.

Voters in swing states like Ohio and Nevada likely view their Senators’ absence as an attempt to appeal to a broader electorate. Those wary of Harris’s progressive stances may be won over by the implicit rejection of Senators staying home. However, Democrats also face the difficulty of energizing the progressive base without alienating moderate or conservative voters who could determine the outcome of their races.

For candidates like Sherrod Brown, whose reputation is advocating for working-class issues, voters express disappointment. They say his absence is a missed opportunity to reinforce party solidarity. Similarly, Jon Tester and Jacky Rosen receive scrutiny from Democrats who suggest their participation is crucial in demonstrating alignment with leadership and the Democratic platform. This is a point of emphasis for those concerned about the challenging landscape Democrats face in retaining Senate control in various states.

John Fetterman, though not up for reelection, faces questions about his visibility at national events. Supporters worry his absence at the convention may signal a break with power centers in the Party, jeopardizing his standing among Democrats.

Division and Disarray Among Democrats

This strategic optics game is also indicative of deeper divisions within the party—particularly between traditional Democrats, progressives, and leftists. As more of her economic policies and historical positions surface, voters perceive Harris as deeply sympathetic toward the radical left. This perception is beginning to alienate Independent voters and some Democrats.

Despite leadership attempts to show unity within the Party, voters are keenly aware of growing fractures between far-left progressives and traditional Democrats—particularly when it comes to Israel. Sentiment is growing that the Party's shift towards progressive policies is pushing the country away from core values like meritocracy and free market capitalism. This division will likely have significant implications for Democratic success in critical down-ballot races, and potentially in the presidential race.

Voters are increasingly discussing Harris as supporting open borders and pushing communist economic policies. These two issues are the most important to voters, exacerbating the danger for Democrats in the election.

Voter Sentiment and Potential Backlash

Approximately 65% of discussions around the DNC hint at a potential backlash against the Democratic Party if it continues leftward. This suggests senators in critical races may be justified in attempting to distance themselves from national leadership. Voters, especially in swing states, express doubts about the effectiveness of the DNC and the broader Party strategy.

There is a prevailing sentiment that absence signals a lack of confidence in Harris's leadership. But critics say by not participating in the DNC, candidates may be missing an opportunity to demonstrate unity and solidarity. They say it could potentially weaken their campaigns or the national ticket among those who prioritize party cohesion. Some say it’s especially important when the spotlight is focused on Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

The Impact of Harris's Leadership

Kamala Harris’s leadership and policy positions, especially on issues like the economy and immigration, are central concerns. Her proposals, which critics label as overly radical, likely will not resonate with moderate voters Senate candidates need to win. This sentiment suggests while some voters support Democratic ideals, they remain wary about the current direction of the Party.

Moderates accuse the DNC and its headliner candidates, particularly Harris, of radicalism and communism. They characterize Harris’s proposals as signs of a sharp leftward shift that aims to diminish traditional Democratic values. This exemplifies the tension, where voters in state races likely wish for a return to more centrist American values.

Symbols and rhetoric also play crucial roles in this discourse. Some X users highlight visuals and language around the DNC to showcase discontent. They emphasize various optics which they say capture a larger anti-Harris sentiment even among some DNC attendees like Chris Cuomo.

Dang… the left lost Cuomo 🤣😂😂

pic.twitter.com/5gRPlhM1NI

— MJTruthUltra (@MJTruthUltra) August 22, 2024

Most embarrassing moments at the DNC so far

These are unbelievable

🧵 A THREAD

12. Guy caught in 4K yelling "NOOOO" to choosing Kamala Harris pic.twitter.com/fEVvCH7kob

— TaraBull (@TaraBull808) August 21, 2024

Discussions also point to Kamala Harris’s nomination as people question its legitimacy due to the absence of primary votes. This narrative surfaces consistently, with voters expressing frustrations about the perceived "coronation" of Harris at the DNC—a decision they believe overrides the democratic process.

MIG Reports analysis shows the political landscape in Nevada emphasizes economic stability, housing affordability, and immigration policies. As the state grapples with rising inflation and the increasing cost of living, residents express dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration. Discussions reveal a strong focus on the impact of government policies on everyday life. Voters seek leadership at the national and state level that can address their concerns and provide tangible solutions to pressing problems.

Border Security

The border is a high priority and highly charged conversation in Nevada. Approximately 70% of the discussion is negative toward the state of illegal immigration under Biden-Harris. The predominant concern is that "open borders" are increasing crime rates, economic strain, and a diversion of resources away from American citizens to support illegal immigrants.

Around 60% of Nevadans in the conversation express frustration with misallocation of taxpayer dollars. They believe tax funds should prioritize veterans and the homeless over illegal immigrants. Additionally, 65% of the conversations explicitly link illegal immigration to rising crime rates, further fueling the demand for stricter border controls.

Political Ideologies

Around 75% of comments show negative sentiment toward Democratic policies, often labeling them as socialist or communist. These discussions emphasize a fear that the Democratic Party has strayed too far from traditional American values. Roughly 65% of the discourse focuses on the idea that supporting Democratic candidates equates to endorsing socialism or communism.

On the other hand, Republican ideals, particularly those associated with Trump, receive a more favorable reception in Nevada. About 60% of the discussion supports Trump, expressing appreciation for his policies and the desire to return to traditional conservative values.

Economy

Housing

Housing is a critical issue in Nevada, with about 55% of the conversations expressing frustration over the lack of affordable housing. Rising costs, stagnant wages, and inflation are frequently mentioned, with 30% of discussions focusing on affordability concerns. Around 25% in Nevada are critical of current government policies, particularly those under Democratic leadership, which are seen as ineffective in addressing the housing crisis.

Economic Issues

The economic discourse in Nevada is dominated by concerns over inflation and government spending. Approximately 75% convey frustration with the Biden administration's economic policies. Nevadans blame Democrats for rising costs and wage stagnation. Inflation is the most frequently mentioned issue, appearing in about 40% of the discussion. Many participants criticize the Inflation Reduction Act, arguing it has worsened, rather than improved inflation.

Fiscal Policy

The sentiment toward fiscal policy is predominantly negative, with 72% expressing dissatisfaction with government spending and its impact on inflation. The perception that Democratic policies, particularly those under the Biden-Harris administration, have led to economic hardship is a recurring theme. Many participants advocate for a shift in leadership, with 10% of the comments emphasizing a desire to return to Trump-era policies that are perceived to have been more economically beneficial.

Inflation

Inflation is a major concern for Nevada voters, with 60% of the discussions linking rising prices directly to the policies of the Biden administration. There is a strong sense of discontent, with 45% of the conversations focusing specifically on food inflation, associating it with broader economic mismanagement. Proposed solutions, such as price controls suggested by Harris, receive substantial criticism, with 40% of the discourse arguing these measures would exacerbate the problem rather than solve it.

Nomination

Kamala Harris’s nomination also generates controversy in Nevada, with criticism of the Democratic Party's handling of primaries. About 62% of the comments express displeasure with how Kamala Harris secured the nomination. Voters say the lack of a primary undermines democratic principles.

Negative sentiment is also present regarding the Democratic National Convention, where 55% of the comments criticize the process as undemocratic and disconnected from voter interests. In contrast, around 40% of the commentary in Nevada expresses positive sentiment toward Republican candidates, framing them as more aligned with voter engagement and traditional political values.

All Entities

Across the board, discussions involving key political figures like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are highly polarized. Housing and economic challenges are the most frequently mentioned issues, with approximately 30% of the conversations focusing on inflation and the cost of living. Election integrity is also a significant concern, with 20% of the discourse centered on skepticism about the legitimacy of past and future elections. The overall sentiment towards Democratic figures, particularly Harris, is predominantly negative, with 15% of the discussions highlighting perceived failures in leadership.

The discussion around border security and immigration remains deeply polarized among American voters. Conversations about the border, particularly focusing on presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, dominate overall public discourse, indicating it’s a top concern. MIG Reports analysis highlights significant differences in public perception and sentiment towards the Republican and Democratic nominees.

An analysis of public sentiment reveals stark differences in support for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on border security:

• Voter sentiment against open borders is strong, averaging 66%.
• Harris's support averages around 34%, with only 20% support in broader discussions and up to 67% among Democrats.
• Trump enjoys consistent support, averaging 69% across various groups.
• He has particularly strong backing from his base—85% support him on border security.
  

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris faces a complex and often critical landscape as voters react to her stance on border security. MIG Reports analysis indicates that across national conversations, a large portion of Americans criticize Harris's approach to immigration. Only a minority of supports express agreement or positivity.

Voter sentiment is consistent across broader analyses from Democrat-leaning conversations. This group prioritizes compassion and humane treatment for immigrants, leading to approval for her open border policies.

However, many conversations among Democrats suggest dissatisfaction with the outcomes of her policies, particularly in managing border programs effectively. There is a divide within the Democratic base, where support for Harris’s lenient approach to immigration is mixed. Many feel her policies do not adequately address the complexities of border security.

Most Americans want effective immigration management with accountability and tangible results. Harris's role as a leader and as "border czar" positions her as a figure of both hope and frustration within her party. Responding to criticisms of her administration on border security will likely pose a hurdle for her campaign.

Many Republicans criticize Harris and Democrats’ hypocrisy, pointing out the DNC has strong security and even physical walls. They say Democrats want anyone to enter the country without limitation but protect themselves behind walls and fences.

Watch as Steve tries to help illegal migrant enter the DNC convention, you can image how it went. pic.twitter.com/RdrI0jIZvW

— @amuse (@amuse) August 21, 2024

Donald Trump

Donald Trump remains a dominant figure in border security conversations, particularly among Republicans. MIG Reports analysis shows overwhelming support for Trump’s hardline stance against open borders and his advocacy for stringent immigration controls.

Trump’s policies, such as the "Remain in Mexico" program, receive strong approval from his base. They view strong measures as essential to protecting national security and upholding the integrity of the immigration system.

Republican voters are strongly aligned with Trump's approach of prioritizing enforcement and deterrence. Theu believe strong border security is synonymous with protecting American jobs and maintaining public safety.

Within party, Trump has overwhelming support. This contrasts with waning support among Democrats for their own leadership. Analysis suggests some Independents and disaffected Democrats are bolstering Trump’s broader support. His consistent message of strict border control and opposition to open borders resonates deeply with Americans who want safety and sovereignty.

This support is not only a reflection of Trump’s influence but an indication of voter priorities as border security remains a top concern. These discussions illustrate the extent to which Trump’s stance on immigration continues to shape and mobilize his base, making him a central figure in the ongoing national debate on border security.

The Michigan Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Elissa Slotkin prioritizes important national issues. Important down-ballot races, especially in swing states, are increasingly important as November approaches. These areas can paint an informative picture about how voters are feeling and where important votes may fall—both at the state level and nationally.

MIG Reports analysis of online discussion in swing states and among Michigan voters reveals critical topics include political ideologies, the economy, candidate nomination, and national security issues. These topics capture the predominant concerns and sentiments of the electorate as they engage with the ongoing political developments.

Political Ideologies

Conversations emphasize the ideological divide between the conservative and liberal political perspectives. These discussions in Michigan specifically refer to Rogers and Slotkin and their respective viewpoints.

MIG Reports analysis shows around 40% of the ideological discussion centers on the GOP’s perceived shift toward a more populist, Trump-aligned platform. Voters describe this as MAGA ideology and some voice concerns about the GOP moving away from traditional values and bipartisanship.

About 25-30% of the conversations discuss Slotkin and the Democratic Party being aligned with socialism or communism. There are significant fears that their policies could lead to financial burdens, shortages, and worsening economic decline. Voters say this would be the result of government control over sectors like healthcare and social security.

Ideological polarization shows strong negative sentiments, with around 55% of discussions involving criticism and fear linked to the Democratic Party's direction for the state and the country.

The Economy

Economic concerns are also prevalent in Michigan political discourse, with discussions on various subtopics.

Housing

Housing affordability gets attention, comprising 20-25% of the overall economic discussion. Voters express deep concerns over housing affordability, with fears that government interventions. They mention Harris's proposed $25,000 grant for first-time homebuyers, saying it could inflate housing prices further and exacerbate the crisis rather than alleviate it. This sentiment is particularly strong in Michigan, where many view these policies as ineffective or even counterproductive.

Economic Issues

Broader economic issues like inflation, taxes, and government spending comprise 30-35% of the conversation. Inflation is routinely a concern, with voters attributing rising costs of living directly to current government policies. There is widespread dissatisfaction with how inflation is managed as many blame the Biden administration.

Voters are imminently concerned about the impact of inflation on their daily lives. They mention rising prices for groceries, energy, and housing. The sentiment towards inflation is overwhelmingly negative, with around 60% of comments reflecting frustration and skepticism towards the government's ability to control inflation.

Fiscal Policy

Discussions about government spending comprise around 30% of discussions. Negativity is pervasive as voters criticize “reckless financial management” by government officials. Michiganders voice concerns about long-term debt and the sustainability of fiscal strategies, questioning the efficacy of current government initiatives.

National Security Issues

National and international security concerns focus on U.S. support for Ukraine and Israel. Voters are deeply divided on these issues, largely along partisan lines. About 20% of the conversation focuses on the perceived alignment of Democratic politicians with pro-Hamas progressives. Sentiment towards Democratic candidates on security issues is predominantly negative. Voters are frustrated and fear the implications of these security concerns on national and personal safety if leadership caves to far-leftists who side with terrorists.

Candidate Nominations

Voters have significant concerns about the legitimacy and fairness of the nomination process. About 35% of conversations highlight issues related to party loyalty, candidate viability, and the accessibility of primaries.

There is anxiety about the effectiveness of the candidates' electoral strategies, particularly regarding Slotkin's financial advantages and her ability to appeal to centrist voters. This topic also reflects broader discontent with the candidate offerings, with around 60% of the conversation maintaining a critical tone towards the candidates.

Other Discussions

• About 25% of conversations focus on the credibility of the candidates, particularly Slotkin. There is skepticism about her ties to the agricultural community and concerns about her background and connections to wealth.
• Abortion conversations also feature prominently, comprising about 20% of the dialogue. Sentiment is largely supportive toward Democratic and pro-choice policies.
• Comparison of the two political parties comprises roughly 20% of the conversation. There is frustration with the perceived extremism in both the Republican and Democratic parties.

MIG Reports analysis of American voter perspectives reveals how sentiment determines voting choices based on key issues. Many issues remain partisan, with Democrats supporting Kamala Harris’s stance and Republicans supporting Trump’s.

Independent voters are likely to be a critical voter group in 2024, enhancing the importance for each candidate to appeal to them. Several trends in sentiment and behavior overlap, suggesting a rough sketch of these voting demographics and indicating where they may place votes.

The top voter issues generating volume consistently over time are:

• The U.S. border
• Economic concerns
• Ideological disagreements
• National security and international affairs
• The Trump and Harris presidential campaigns

Voter conversations vary across political affiliation, with different emphasis and sentiment within each.

Border Security

There is strong disapproval toward Biden-Harris border policies and calls for a return to Trump-era measures which were more effective. Much of the conversations revolves around illegal immigrants and the perception of open borders. Voters are dissatisfied with the Biden-Harris administration, citing concerns about unchecked immigration, national security, and rising crime rates.

Kamala Harris's role as border czar often leads to criticism and accusations that she is failing to secure the border. Many also say she is actively encouraging illegal crossings. The discussion also ties border security to broader social issues like crime and the economy. People believe the impact of illegal immigration touches many areas of American life. This suggests border security will be a critical issue as Americans cast their votes.

Trump Voters

Republican conversations about the 2024 election highlight border security as a critical issue. There are strong sentiments favoring Donald Trump’s policies over Kamala Harris’s. Because people link immigration policies to other high-priority issues like national security and economic concerns, its importance increases.

Voters are frustrated with the Biden-Harris administration, saying Trump's policies were more effective. The discourse frames the upcoming election as a pivotal moment, with border security presented as integral to future stability.

Discussion among Democrats and Independents is much lower than among Republicans.

Economic Issues and Housing

Worries about the economy are consistent across all voter groups, with significant worry about inflation, taxes, and government spending. There is widespread dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration’s policies.

Voters associate rising costs of living and inflation with "Bidenomics” and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Many voters view these policies as exacerbating economic challenges rather than alleviating them. There is a consistently strong narrative linking economic instability directly to government mismanagement.

There is notable discontent regarding proposed changes like the "no tax on tips” proposal both Trump and Harris have presented. Many voters are skeptical about the sincerity of these reforms, suggesting they’re simply rhetorical promises that will not be kept.

Housing Affordability

The cost of housing further amplifies economic anxieties for Americans. There is pervasive frustration in online discussion over the lack of affordable housing and rising rent and mortgage rates. People view the housing crisis as symptomatic of broader economic instability. This, many also blame on Biden and Harris.

For many voters, there is a clear overlap between economic stressors and housing costs. Many tie their financial struggles to expensive housing, blaming politicians for focusing on less important issues and neglecting critical economic realities.

Independents

Independent voters are concerned about economic transparency and fairness. The economy dominates conversations among Independents who are skeptical of the reliability of economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and job reports. They question the accuracy of inflation data and express a desire for more transparency from the government.

Discussions also focus on the fairness of government spending. They contrast the plight of the working class with perceived preferential treatment for the wealthy, including large corporations. Sentiment is mixed, with some rejecting increased social assistance, calling it socialism, while others criticize economic inequality.

Among Independents, there is criticism of Kamala Harris’s policies. Some fear her leadership will worsen economic challenges and bring communist economic policies.

Republicans

Trump voters are optimistic about his economic policies, expressing urgency to return to his leadership and avoid further economic decline. Republicans highlight low taxes—including Trump's “no tax on tips” proposal—and tout Trump’s tax reform proposals. These, they associate with economic growth and middle-class support.

Inflation is also a significant concern as many draw a sharp contrast between today’s prices and those under Trump's leadership. Border security and immigration are frequently mentioned, as voters link these issues to economic strain. They support Trump's policies as vital for national security and economic health.

Democrats

Harris voters are more optimistic, expressing confidence in her economic management and hope in her future policies. The economic conversation is still central among Democratic voters, but it prompts them to stronger support for Kamala Harris's candidacy.

Democrats discuss trade, tariffs, agricultural prosperity, and the positive impact of Biden and Harris’s policies compared to past administrations. The term “farmers” frequently appears, reflecting a belief that Harris's strategies have reversed the hardships imposed during Trump's tenure. Democrats view Harris as revitalizing the agricultural sector and improving economic stability.

Ideologies

Americans are increasingly divided on the ideological stances of Democrats versus Republicans. There is heightened emotional sentiment and deep ideological divides regarding economic policy, social issues, democratic integrity, and perceptions of governance. These discussions revolve around terms like “socialism,” “communism,” and “America First.”

Trump supporters express strong loyalty to preserving and fighting for American values against a radical left agenda. They criticize Democrats like Harris for policies they say are socialist or communist. Many Republicans voice fears that a Harris presidency would push the country toward communism. Meanwhile, those on the left view a second Trump presidency as likely heralding fascism and authoritarianism.

Economic concerns spark ideological debates about communism versus capitalism. Conversation about social issues like gun rights and immigration draw debates about personal and national sovereignty versus safety and inclusion.

The debate over effective leadership intensifies as voters criticize both candidates. Trump supporters view him as a strong leader while critics view him as an authoritarian. Harris supporters view her as effective and historically significant while critics question her leadership and competence.

The ongoing election discussions highlight not just policy preferences but grow fears on both sides about the direction of the country. Most voters believe the ideological battleground will significantly impact America's future political landscape.

Independents

Independent voters are skeptical and frustrated with the political divide. They are engaged in ideological discussions but disillusioned with the two parties. There is a significant focus among Independents on media portrayals, political alignment, and ideological evolution.

This group is worried about the role of media, with skepticism directed at outlets like Fox News and CNN as unreliable or politically aligned. They also strongly react to the perception of radical ideological shifts in either party and decry media outlets as partisan.

Republicans

Republican voters also express widespread distrust of mainstream media. They accuse most legacy news outlets of bias, misrepresentation, and accepting talking points from Democrats. There is also disillusionment with the Republican establishment as voters call for more aggressive and principled leadership that aligns with true conservative values.

Democrats

Democrat conversations often center on governance, with mixed to positive sentiment toward Biden and Harris' ability to address challenges. Most support is underpinned by opposition to Trump, with optimism about Harris rectifying his damage to the country.

Election campaign strategies and voter mobilization are more prominent than conversations about media bias. There is both frustration and motivation among Democrats regarding the Party. Public perceptions of Harris as a candidate mix skepticism with support, showing some criticism and some excitement for her potential election.

Security Issues

Foreign policy and national security issues are also important to American voters. Discussions focus heavily on the U.S. relationship with Israel, the conflict in Gaza, and the implications of Iran's alleged hacking of the Trump campaign.

Discourse around foreign interference and military aid further exacerbates anxieties about national security. Trump voters feel indignant, arguing media portrayals and allegations of hacking are part of a broader agenda against their candidate.

The Biden administration's military aid to Israel gets most of the attention from Democrats. Conversations are charged with anger and frustration toward the Biden-Harris administration, with many accusing them of complicity in the ongoing conflict.

Independents

Independent voters are wrestling with the moral and strategic complexities of U.S. involvement in wars and conflicts. They show empathy for the humanitarian crises arising from these conflicts, particularly in Gaza. But they are wary of how protest movements alienate potential allies through extreme rhetoric or actions.

This group is skeptical about the possibility of meaningful change in U.S. foreign policy, especially regarding its support for Israel. There is general frustration with the political status quo. Despite these concerns, Independents express a strong sense of national pride. They hope for foreign policy that aligns more closely with their values and expectations of American leadership on the global stage.

Republicans

Discourse among Republican voters focuses on Iran allegedly hacking Trump’s campaign communications. They are suspicious about the security of political communications and the broader implications for national security. There is also deep distrust toward mainstream media. This group believes news outlets use incidents like this to undermine Trump's campaign.

There is anger, distrust, and a feeling of vulnerability among Republicans. They talk about the importance of national security, media integrity, and foreign influence in shaping voter sentiment. Overall, the conversations reflect a concerned electorate focused on protecting American values and the integrity of the electoral process.

Campaign Rallies

A significant focus in conversations about campaign rallies is on crowd sizes and the effectiveness of protests. Many use crowd size as a measure of political strength, with Trump supporters boasting large numbers as evidence of his influence and critics saying the claims are exaggerated.

Harris supporters claim her rallies are larger, with more popularity and better vibes. However, her rallies face scrutiny about the legitimacy of images and organic voter support, with critics accusing her of staging events and faking images. Some, however, are frustrated with the ongoing fixation about crowd sizes on both sides. They say these conversations detract from substantive political engagement.

There are also conversations about protests. Some question the lack of substantial protests at Trump rallies compared to the vocal opposition from pro-Palestine demonstrators at Harris events. People discuss the safety and efficacy of protests, fearing the consequences of heightened political tensions.

In general, discussions fall by the wayside, overshadowed by the focus on spectacle and attendance. This leaves many voters feeling as though pressing issues like immigration and healthcare are being neglected.

Sheehy’s Growing Momentum Among Montana Voters

Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer and decorated Navy SEAL, has gained traction in his Montana Senate race against the three-term incumbent Jon Tester. MIG Reports data shows Sheehy leads Tester in both approval and support. His lead is corroborated by a recent NonStop Local poll.

Tester has represented Montana for nearly two decades. This shift in voter sentiment reveals a growing dissatisfaction with Tester's performance, along with national disapproval of Democrats, on issues like inflation, taxes, and border security.

Voter conversations in Montana show increasing frustrations at Tester's alignment with leftist policies—despite his refusal to endorse Kamala Harris and his decision to skip the DNC. People use phrases like “Tester is a communist” and accuse him of “furthering socialist policies,” MIG Reports data shows.

This sentiment is pushing voters toward Sheehy, who they view as “America First” and upholding traditional values. Supporters describe Sheehy as a leader who embodies “freedom” and “patriotism,” contrasting him with their view of Tester as detached from Montana’s heritage.

• In the last 15 days, approval for Tester and Sheehy has fluctuated. In the past three days, Sheehy regained a lead of 51% to 49%. The shift comes on the heels of Sheehy’s rally with Donald Trump in Bozeman last Friday.
• Overall positive sentiment toward Sheehy in the last month has averaged 48% compared to Tester’s 46%.

The National Significance of Sheehy’s Senate Bid

The outcome of the Montana Senate race carries national implications. Sheehy is leading according to MIG Reports data and some polls. Tester's plan to skip the Democratic National Convention is also raising eyebrows. This draws attention to tight down-ballot races as the Harris-Walz campaign continues to get battered on economic issues and the border, and given Democrats’ slim Senate majority.

The incoming administration will need Congressional support, and economic struggles and the unpopularity of the Biden-Harris administration’s open border are putting incumbent down-ballot democrats like Tester in jeopardy. A Sheehy victory would not only flip a crucial Senate seat but signal a shift in voter sentiment by unseating an incumbent who has been in office since 2006.

For Republicans, winning Montana could be a key step in regaining control of the Senate. Sheehy’s success in connecting with voters on issues like the economy, border security, and housing highlights the broader dissatisfaction with Democratic governance, particularly in rural states.

As one voter put it, “We need someone who understands Montana values, not Washington politics.”

Important Voter Issues

Economic Concerns Drive Support for Sheehy

Americans across the country are deeply worried about inflation and taxes — and Montana voters are not exempt. Many blame Tester for contributing to the inflation crisis, complaining about rising prices, and increased property taxes. Tester's association with the Biden administration further fuels this narrative as voters place their financial struggles at Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s feet.

Tim Sheehy has capitalized on these concerns by positioning himself as the candidate who will bring economic relief. His background as a successful businessman lends credibility to his promises to lower taxes and stimulate economic growth. Voters who are disillusioned with Tester's handling of the economy see Sheehy as someone who can steer Montana back to prosperity.

Some critics call Sheehy “self-serving” or acting out of personal interest rather than genuine concern for Montana. But the overarching sentiment is dissatisfaction with Tester and willingness to give Sheehy a chance to prove himself. Donald Trump’s recent press conference on the economy and Kamala Harris’s scandalous plans for price controls are also helping push Republican momentum nationwide.

Housing

Housing affordability is another pressing issue in Montana, where rising costs are impacting residents statewide. Voters express anger over what they see as Tester's failure to address the housing crisis. Sheehy counters as a catalyst for change—though some critics are skeptical of his ability to tackle these issues with a struggling national economy.

Voters in Montana and nationwide blame Biden-Harris policies for sustained high housing costs. People talk about skyrocketing rents, increased property taxes, and poor solutions from politicians. Specific phrases like "housing costs doubled" and "property taxes rose 22%" underscore the dire situation many Montanans feel they are facing.

Border Security

Border security is another critical issue in the Montana Senate race, echoing national concerns about illegal immigration. Many Montanans accuse Tester of supporting “open borders,” which contributes to economic strain and public safety risks. Broadly, voters are angry at Tester and Democrats’ lax stance on immigration. They believe partisan policies endanger their communities and waste taxpayer dollars.

Sheehy has made border security a central theme of his campaign, promising to uphold “Montana values” by enforcing stricter immigration controls. His supporters believe he will prioritize secure borders and take a hard stance against illegal immigration.

This issue is particularly resonant in Montana, where voters are increasingly concerned about illegal immigrants flying in from border and sanctuary states. The country’s northern border, which is also a vector for illegal immigration and drug and human trafficking, is an under-discussed factor Montanans feel acutely.

Sheehy’s tough talk on immigration appeals to voters fed up with Democratic failures. However, like with other issues, there is a smaller group who question whether Sheehy’s rhetoric will translate into effective action.

Cultural Issues

Cultural issues are growing contentious, and many believe Tester has drifted too far from Montana's traditional values. People say Tester is aligned with “leftist policies” and “socialist ideas,” with some voters even labeling him a “communist.” More conservative voters in rural states also express strong objections to LGBTQ issues like gender ideology and child sex changes. Democrats like Tester aligning with liberal social issues makes voters view them as more attuned to the priorities of Washington, D.C. and far-left progressives.

In contrast, voters view Tim Sheehy as a defender of Montana’s conservative values. His supporters praise him for standing up for freedom and families. They appreciate his military background and commitment to the principles they believe define Montana. Sheehy’s focus on protecting individual liberties, including parents’ rights, and MIG Reports data shows promoting traditional family values resonates with Montanans.

Reactions to Donald Trump’s X space with Elon Musk sparked conversations about free expression, censorship, and manipulation. Supporters celebrate Trump's unfiltered communication style, contrasting him with politically charged media narratives that selectively report on his statements. Meanwhile, many in the media are concerned X—formerly Twitter—is exacerbating divisive rhetoric.

Mark Cuban went on John Stewart to complain about Elon Musk and 𝕏 but ended up being an advertisement for why people should be on 𝕏pic.twitter.com/T3RkisMz0q

— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) August 14, 2024

America Likes Raw, Unfiltered Politics

Social media conversations referencing Trump and Musk show broad appreciation for unfiltered, straightforward political conversation. Voter enthusiasm for an open dialogue and off-script discussions contrasts sharply with criticisms from mainstream media. Americans voice their desire for candid discussions by public figures, celebrating authenticity from Trump in the face of Kamala Harris’s carefully crafted image.

People recount personal stories about their paths to political engagement. There are many mentions of firsthand experiences of communism or observers beholding the unfiltered truth of Trump’s policies for the first time. These stories often involve feelings of revelation at the lies of Democrats and the media on ideological and political fronts. These accounts personalize ideological conflicts and mobilize public sentiment around shared values and experiences.

Young voter sentiment appears polarized. Some express disillusionment with traditional politics but still resonate with Trump's directness and his portrayal as an outsider. Others voice a profound fatigue towards what they perceive as Trump's divisive communication style. Detractors cite extremely polarizing moments during his presidency, specifically on issues of race and gender. TikTok analytics show Trump commanding a wide audience despite pervasive negativity about him. This suggests strong curiosity among younger audiences.

• On the day of the X space, Trump received a 2% approval boost nationally and mentions of his presidential campaign jumped to 23,543 from 16,269 the day before.

Legacy Media Hates Being Upstaged

Media outlets respond to Trump's reappearance on X as distressing and undermining. Many lament the wide reach of more than one billion listeners, expressing regret at the audience being composed largely of young voters.

🚨JUST IN: 77% OF THE 27 MILLION PEOPLE THAT TUNED IN TO TRUMP'S SPACE WITH ELON MUSK WERE YOUNGER THAN 34!

This is why the mainstream media is in MELTDOWN MODE!

Trump has the GEN-Z VOTE!

We know the FAKE NEWS won't report this.

Share to make this go viral! pic.twitter.com/M6Y8hBzwHo

— Bo Loudon (@BoLoudon) August 13, 2024

CNN on President Trump’s interview with Elon Musk:

“These are people who aren't going to tune into traditional news — who aren't going to follow politics in a traditional sense — but they are going to tune into Elon Musk doing an X space with Trump. This is a group of people who… pic.twitter.com/2PFmuUwFt1

— Proud Elephant 🇺🇸🦅 (@ProudElephantUS) August 12, 2024

Legacy media commentary often focuses on the apparent DDoS attack that delayed the start of the X space. Reporters highlight the attack as a “glitch” or technological failure, calling it a chaotic resonance of Trump's relationship with digital media. Some portray the delay as a setback for Trump, while others frame it as an irrelevant detail against the backdrop of more serious problems posed by the Trump campaign.

NEW: CNN fumes after the Trump / Musk X Space last night, slams Trump for his comments about their candidate Kamala Harris.

Mission successful.

“It began with 40 minutes of silence and then an apocalypse of politics.”

“No matter how you frame it or what caused the glitch, what… pic.twitter.com/QoabK3aast

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 13, 2024

Demographic and Group Responses

MAGA voters are unanimous in their excitement about the X space and Trump being back on the platform. They align themselves with his narrative about American patriotism in contrast to Democratic disdain for American values. They express urgency about the upcoming election, viewing it as a battle for the very essence of American values against leftist and communist ideologies.

Younger progressive voters are concerned over Trump's policies, particularly women’s rights and LGBTQ issues. Their sentiment often poses Trump as threatening a resurgence of authoritarianism.

Working-class voters appear highly sympathetic towards Trump's economic messaging. Many reflect on his promises of job growth and economic revitalization, arguing his policies offer a chance to restore dignity to working-class Americans. Affluent voters are more likely to voice unease about Trump’s alignment with populist rhetoric, often dismissing him as dangerous or irresponsible.

Conversations about the X space often include words like "communism," "freedom," "socialism," and "values." This highlights the ideological struggle that characterizes the 2024 election. Trump is viewed as a symbol of resistance against the left, while Kamala Harris symbolizes strong pushes for progressive change.

X is Preserving Free Speech

Americans are concerned about increasing attacks on free speech. They view the assault as part of a larger strategy by the left to suppress dissenting voices. Many express their support for Musk and Trump as hinging on their advocacy for the First Amendment. This group often suggests the DDoS attack was an attempt to banish freedom of expression, despite Elon Musk providing an open forum. This collective sentiment positions Trump supporters as guardians of liberty against rapidly receding constitutional rights.

There is a growing public anxiety about the future of American democracy on both sides of the aisle. Democrats and progressives present Donald Trump as a threat to democracy while Republicans and conservatives point to the Democratic establishment as already trampling norms and constitutional freedoms.

Comment threads on X and other platforms often contain a sense of urgency. Many view the current political climate as one of their remaining chances to make a stand for their beliefs. Phrases like “the last real worldview difference election” and calls for unity among conservatives underscore a rallying cry against socialist encroachment.

Trump on the Issues

Many voters who listened to Trump’s X space are taking the opportunity to contrast his policy proposals with Kamala Harris’s. People note that Trump touched on various important voter issues, while Harris has yet to release any meaningful policy platform.

• Since her announcement as the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris has gradually lost support.
• She received an approval bump with announcing Tim Walz as her running mate, but the downward trend continues, showing 49% on July 20 compared to 44% today.
• Donald Trump also received an approval bump following his X space, jumping from 44% to 46% on the day of the stream before settling back at 44%.
• Discussion volume around Trump’s campaign also spiked following the X space, jumping to 23,543 from 16,269 the day before.

Fake Kamala

Conversations online contain a constant stream of condemnation directed at Kamala Harris. Voters call her a "flip-flopper," "radical," and "fake," criticizing her actions and positions. Sentiments largely reflect a perception that Harris is an untrustworthy politician who lacks genuine convictions.

Trump critics highlight the discrepancy between his rhetoric and actions, particularly on immigration and the economy. They claim he adversely affected large segments of the population, championing Harris as an antidote.

• After Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, Kamala Harris received a significant support boost.
• However, that support has steadily eroded over the last month, dropping to 39% compared to Trump’s 58% today.

Border Security

One of the most frequently discussed topics following Trump’s X space is border security. People want stronger borders to stop illegal immigration. There is admiration for Trump's policies and stringent border controls, linking them to national safety and economic stability. Conversations portray Trump as a champion for strong borders, with discussions citing illegal crossings during his administration compared to today.

Critics accuse Trump and Republicans of politicizing border security for political gain. However, these arguments are often made ideologically rather than with references to specific policy disagreements.

Taxes

Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on tips is also popular. People discuss Kamala Harris’s attempt to piggyback on this policy, highlighting Trump’s comments about her being a copy-cat. Supporters say Trump advocates for the working class with tax relief measures. There is both support for Trump's fiscal policies and skepticism towards Harris’s lackluster economic platform.

Many of these conversations suggest Trump’s proposals resonate more authentically with the public.

Election integrity

Election integrity remains a salient topic in voter conversations, particularly related to Trump’s chances at the ballot box. People discuss Democratic Party tactics, mentioning "Joe Biden," and "Coup 2.0"as heightening their suspicions. Sentiments generally portray Trump as a victim of a political system designed to undermine him.

This fosters a feeling of agitation among his supporters who are concerned about secure voting procedures in November. Discourse around potential election fraud continues to be a rallying theme for Trump voters, blending feelings of indignation and loyalty toward him.

MIG Reports analysis shows recent online discussion about Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz’s liberal political record is corroborated by:

• Speeches given by Governor Tim Walz's between 2019-2024
• His recent first speech as vice-presidential nominee
• Pattern analysis of his record as a Congress member from 2007-2019

Online discourse and an analysis of previous speeches, determining Walz’s historical rhetoric and policy focus, confirms voter perceptions of his left-leaning platform. The analysis shows a clear shift toward more liberal and progressive positions during Walz’s political career.

In early speeches and actions, Walz took a more centrist, bipartisan approach, particularly in his early years as governor and his time in Congress. He emphasized working across the aisle on issues like veterans' affairs, agriculture, and rural economic development—areas traditionally seen as more moderate or centrist. Throughout his tenure, however, there is a noticeable leftward shift, particularly in his stance on social issues, economic policy, environmental concerns, and public safety.

How Voters View Walz

Current voter understanding of Tim Walz is shaped by significant online criticism of his “extremely liberal” politics. People discuss allegations of "stolen valor" for exaggerating his military rank and combat experience. This leads to widespread negative sentiment.

Discussions about how he handled civil unrest in Minnesota and COVID lockdowns also draw ire. Voters accuse Walz of cowardice and authoritarianism for allowing riots to continue unchecked and imposing harsh lockdowns in 2020.

His association with controversial figures like Imam Asad Zaman further fuels negative perceptions, raising questions about his judgment. Criticism extends to his stance on gun control, where detractors argue he lies about his military background to advocate for stricter gun laws.

Allegations of fraud in child welfare programs under his oversight have also damaged his reputation, generating significant distrust in his leadership. Overall, discussions place Walz under intense public scrutiny. Voters discuss him mentioning dishonesty, poor leadership, and questionable associations.

Voters also recognize that Walz has increasingly championed progressive causes, particularly in areas like LGBTQ rights, racial justice, and abortion rights. His strong support for protecting access to sex change surgeries for minors, codifying abortion rights, and banning conversion therapy aligns him closely with the progressive base.

Economically, Walz advocates for larger, tax-funded investments in public education, affordable housing, and paid family and medical leave—hallmark issues for progressives. He also backs required free school meals and a child tax credit aimed at reducing child poverty, further signaling his alignment with progressive economic policies.

More Money Doesn’t Improve Education

MIG Reports analysis shows discussions regarding educational policies, such as the free school breakfast and lunch programs, are politically divided. Some praise Walz's efforts as necessary support systems for children. But more conservative voters denounce the program, which mandates free meals regardless of family income, as a socialist overreach and an unnecessary use of tax dollars. This division reflects the broader ideological battle playing out in the narrative surrounding Walz’s governance.

In speeches, Walz consistently emphasizes Education and Families as central to his agenda. He advocates creating opportunities for children and supporting family structures. However, his discussions lack a detailed education strategy, with little specificity on how proposed investments will be managed or how they will correlate with long-term economic growth.

The absence of a cohesive educational and economic strategy raises concerns about the effectiveness and sustainability of his policies. The Casey Foundation ranked Minnesota education #7 in 2021, #9 in 2022, and #18 in 2023 despite increases in public funding. AP News also reported in December of 2023 that Walz’s free school meal program was costing more than expected and, as a result, was unsustainable for the state budget.

2020 Riots Still Anger Americans

Voter discussions on Public Safety are rife with allegations that Walz allowed and even encouraged chaos during the George Floyd protests in 2020. People accuse him of failing to deploy the National Guard to control the riots. They say he instead directed police efforts toward enforcing stringent lockdown rules.

Americans view Walz as a leader who prioritized extreme lockdown enforcement over public safety amid civil unrest. There is significant criticism of his COVID response, with accusations of unjust and overly restrictive measures. The most discussed topics revolve around his enforcement methods—like a snitch line—during lockdowns. Sentiment across these discussions is negative, with frequent comparisons to authoritarian practices and criticisms of his broader political ideology and governance style.

In public speeches, Walz’s approach to Public Safety focuses on gun control measures like red flag laws and universal background checks. These positions align him progressive views on gun limitations.

Foreign Policy and Security Issues

In discussions about Walz’s Foreign Policy, people mention his historical affiliations and travel to China. Voters highlight his extensive travel history to the country, accusing him of having ties to the Chinese Communist Party. These accusations are often linked to a broader distrust of Walz’s foreign policy positions and potential influences on his domestic policy decisions. Sentiment around these allegations is largely negative, often intensifying calls against his candidacy.

Top keywords mentioned with Tim Walz regarding Security Issues include:

• Hamas
• Muslim cleric
• Military service
• Stolen valor
• Antisemitic
• Hitler

The overall sentiment is negative, as people question his honesty, associations, and ability to handle security-related issues effectively.

Walz’s Rhetoric is Increasingly Leftist

Current public discussion of Walz's various policy positions is limited. However, MIG Reports analysis of his speech content confirms general voter perceptions of Walz’s increasingly left-leaning positions.

Healthcare

Walz’s speeches frequently mention Healthcare, initially focusing on access and affordability. Later in his political career, his advocacy expands to emphasize mental health and abortion rights. Despite this, Walz's speeches lack in-depth proposals for healthcare reforms. This gap in his healthcare strategy suggests a reluctance to tackle politically divisive issues, which could be attributed to his tendency to cater to the far left.

Bipartisanship

Over time, Walz's rhetoric shifts, with Bipartisanship giving way to a more direct, occasionally confrontational tone, particularly toward Republican policies. This shift indicates a stronger alignment with progressive stances, especially on issues like climate change, gun control, and social equity.

However, his speeches often omit issues critical to voters such as Immigration Policy, an increasingly significant topic in national discourse. By neglecting immigration reform and border security, Walz aligns himself with the political left who are often accused of advocating open borders.

Environmental Issues

On Environmental Issues, Walz sets ambitious goals, such as achieving 100% clean energy in Minnesota by 2040. This aligns with broader progressive goals focused on combating climate change and promoting sustainable energy.

His focus on Environmental Justice—how these policies impact marginalized communities—is historically limited. With growing importance in progressive circles, any emerging rhetoric from Walz on environmental justice would indicate continued movement to the left.

Rural Issues

Online conversations about Tim Walz characterize him an an increasingly left-leaning, authoritarian figure. When addressing Rural Issues, Walz tends to focus more on agriculture, with less attention on broader challenges such as rural healthcare access, broadband connectivity, and educational disparities. This narrow focus may suggest a limited understanding of the diverse needs of rural communities, which could hinder his ability to effectively serve these constituencies.

Summary

Voter discussions about Walz feature suspicions of dishonesty, poor leadership during crises, and questionable political associations. Public sentiment trends negatively across these themes, presenting Walz as much more progressive than Democrats claim. Many Democratic voters and political analysts seek to position Walz as a Midwesterner with moderate appeal. However, voter discussions and his own history of political advocacy confirms his strongly progressive allegiances.

Glaring gaps in addressing critical issues like immigration, comprehensive healthcare reform, and rural challenges damage Walz’s image among critical voter groups. People seem to understand that Walz’s track record reveals misalignment with important voter issues in favor of catering to the progressive wing of the Democratic base. As a governor, his impact is often seen as limited, with his successes overshadowed by significant failures.