Discourse and polling among young men reveals a burgeoning inclination to support Donald Trump over the Democratic ticket in 2024. This trend is capturing national attention, notably influencing public debates and media narratives. Analysts are examining whether this phenomenon signifies a larger shift among younger demographics or reflects a specific partisan appeal.

Trending Topics

A significant focus lies on economic grievances, particularly those affecting young voters. Commentary often highlights the high cost of living, with housing affordability as a primary concern. Young voters frequently express frustrations over soaring rent prices and the challenges of homeownership in current economic conditions. Phrases such as "can't afford to buy a house" and "housing prices are unbelievable" often surface, capturing their financial stress and dissatisfaction with the status quo.

A recent Truth Social post by Donald Trump speaks directly to this concern. Many young voters appreciate messaging like this, which contrasts with Democratic promises of future change, despite holding current office.

Sentiment Trends

Voter sentiment on the economy, and specifically housing, is overwhelmingly negative. There is disillusionment and anger toward current economic policies from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

Young voters associate their economic hardships with Democratic leadership, expressing a preference for policies they believe would alleviate their financial burdens. Comparisons to the economic environment under Trump are prevalent, with many arguing during his administration, they experienced more financial security and housing affordability. This underlying sentiment indicates a belief that the previous administration's policies better supported their economic aspirations.

Many view the Biden-Harris administration's efforts in areas like student debt relief and housing reforms as insufficient or out of touch with their realities. While some acknowledge measures like student debt forgiveness, these efforts are seen as inadequate compared to the broader economic pressures they face daily, particularly in housing.

However, despite being the current vice president, it is possible the public doesn’t completely equate Harris with current housing problems caused by the Biden administration. This suggests Republican messaging should continue to highlight links between the existing administration and more of the same if Democrats win.

Urgent Timing

The intersection of these economic themes with broader political narratives further fuels the discourse. Comments indicate a perception that Democratic leaders are more preoccupied with social issues and political maneuvers than addressing immediate economic concerns. This disconnect exacerbates the frustration and propels the appeal of Trump if he promises economic revival and stability.

In this context, young men’s increasing support for Trump is framed as a pragmatic choice rooted in economic self-interest. They articulate a desire for a return to what they perceive as a more robust economic period in their lifetime. This sentiment is bolstered by shared experiences of financial strain under both Biden and Obama during the Great Financial Crisis. This fosters a belief that conservative economic policies might offer more tangible relief.

The Trump Economy

Public discussions also reflect nostalgia for the perceived economic benefits of Trump's tenure. Phrases expressing longing for past conditions, such as "Trump years were much better" and "affordable housing under Trump," encapsulate this sentiment. These expressions are not merely backward-looking but reveal a substantive critique of current economic policies and a hope for future improvement under a similar leadership style.

MIG Reports shows a key demographic for the 2024 presidential election is likely to be white men in rust belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. For many in these states, economics is the most important issue.

White men are not the only voter group—and not the majority. However, there are several winning issues for Trump among this group. In critical swing states where support is tight and sentiment may be threatened by a Kamala Harris candidacy, issues swaying white men could potentially overlap with other voter priorities.

While conservative values and traditional ways of life do not seem to resonate across all demographics, negative economic sentiment, with strong messaging against Biden administration policies, may translate to other voter groups.

Economics

Wisconsin

White male voters in Wisconsin continue to be a significant demographic influencing election outcomes. These voters prioritize economic issues like job security, tax rates, and the cost of living. Manufacturing sector stability, which is affected by trade policies and economic shifts, is crucial to this demographic.

Despite the inclination toward traditional Republican values, concerns over healthcare affordability and social services prompt a nuanced voting pattern. This group's likelihood to vote is relatively high, driven by a sense of civic duty and concern over economic stability and governance.

Michigan

The white male demographic in Michigan is primarily concerned with economic recovery and job growth—especially in the automotive industry, which has historically been the backbone of the state's economy. Key economic issues include trade policies, tariffs, and the impact of automation.

Economic distress in struggling communities elevates concerns over inflation and healthcare costs. This group is highly motivated to vote, energized by economic performance metrics and policies affecting industrial growth and job security.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, white male voters are significantly influenced by economic issues, notably those impacting the energy sector, such as fracking and coal mining. High priorities for this group include job creation, tax policies, and energy independence.

The rural-urban divide strongly influences voter alignment, with urban voters leaning more towards concerns about healthcare and social services. This demographic shows high voter turnout, often driven by direct economic impacts felt in their communities and a strong desire to influence policies on energy and industry regulations.

Minnesota

White male voters in Minnesota are primarily concerned with economic stability, taxation, and the cost of living. Issues such as healthcare, education, and social services also play a role due to Minnesota's relatively high standard of living and educational attainment. Economic policies affecting small businesses, agriculture, and the tech industry are significant motivators.

The likelihood of this demographic to vote is high, influenced by strong social and political engagement traditions in the state and immediate concerns over economic welfare and state policies.

Public Sentiment on Issues

The public conversations surrounding economic issues predominantly feature keywords such as "inflation," "job growth," "taxes," "cost of living," and "healthcare costs." Sentiment toward these issues varies but generally shares a critical view of current economic management.

Inflation

Public sentiment around inflation is overwhelmingly negative, with widespread frustration over rising prices and decreased purchasing power. Comments reflect concerns about the government's role in mitigating inflation and the impact on everyday expenses like groceries and gas. The sentiment trend suggests blame is often placed on Biden administration policies perceived to exacerbate the issue.

Job Growth

Discussions around job growth vary. While some express optimism about job opportunities under certain administrations, others highlight discrepancies in wage growth compared to the increasing cost of living. The trend in sentiment here is mixed, with an underlying concern about job stability and fair wages, as job creation efforts do not always translate into economic security for working families.

Taxes

Taxation is another major topic, with sentiments veering towards criticism of high tax burdens on the middle class. Keywords like "tax cuts" and "tax increases" frequently appear, with frustration aimed at perceived inequities in the tax system. Many argue that tax policies favor the wealthy and corporations over the average taxpayer, deepening economic disparities.

Cost of Living

The cost of living is a critical issue, Americans in the rust belt express stress about affording basic necessities with rising prices. Negative sentiment here is strong, with calls for policies that address wage stagnation and improve affordability for essential goods and services. Public opinion calls for economic measures to alleviate these burdens, reflecting a demand for immediate action.

Healthcare Costs

Healthcare costs also dominate economic discussions, with public sentiment largely critiquing the high expenses associated with medical care. There is a strong desire for reform to make healthcare more affordable and accessible. This issue's sentiment trend shows bipartisan frustration, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with the current healthcare system regardless of political affiliation.

Influences on Voter Turnout

There are multiple driving factors that influence white male voting behavior and the probability of turning out to vote. This demographic is particularly significant given the heavy discourse surrounding political ideologies social issues that specifically involve white men in public conversations.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin men often vote strongly on economic issues. There's an emphasis on fiscal conservatism and opposition to expansive government intervention, often labeled as "socialist" or "communist." The notion of "Project 2025," a plan associated with conservative principles, is frequently mentioned to outline policy preferences that favor deregulation and a reduced federal footprint in state affairs. The sentiment here is mostly distrust of liberal overreach and a desire to reclaim local autonomy.

Michigan

White male voter concerns are tied to the manufacturing sector in Michigan, which has been subject to significant changes over recent decades. Here, keywords like "MAGA," "America First," and "economic nationalism" dominate discussions, reflecting a preference for policies that prioritize American industry and workers. This demographic is deeply skeptical of international trade agreements and immigration policies which could undermine American jobs. These men fear losing traditional economic strongholds and pushback against globalization-fueled economic decline.

Pennsylvania

Energy policies are a driving factor for white male voters in Pennsylvania, especially given the state's historical reliance on coal and natural gas industries. They like candidates who support deregulation and oppose the Green New Deal, which they see as a threat to Pennsylvania’s economy. There is distrust towards federal institutions, suggesting cultural conservatism and wariness of elitism and overreach from liberal politics. This group often prioritizes safety, security, and economic stability over progressive social changes. Voter turnout among this demographic is generally high, driven by a strong sense of civic duty and a belief that their way of life is under threat from liberal policies.

Minnesota

White men in Minnesota often discuss MAGA and communism, revealing an urgency to defend against progressive policy advancements. Public conversations often revolve around crime, policing, and urban policies, indicating a demand for law-and-order approaches. The animosity towards perceived liberal agendas is palpable, with strong resistance to movements for social justice reform, seen as destabilizing forces. This voter group is likely to turn out in significant numbers, driven by a perceived existential threat to their values and way of life.

MIG Reports data shows American perceptions of Vice President Kamala Harris’s economy as like Joe Biden’s, especially on inflation. Public sentiment about Harris as a potential president is negative based on her association with the Inflation Reduction Act and the broader economic conditions under the Biden administration.

Inflation Reduction Act Revisionism

Kamala Harris was the tie-breaking vote in the Senate to help pass the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. President Joe Biden, along with numerous economists, have since made it clear the Act didn’t address Inflation. More accurately, it was a government spending bill.

Several mainstream media articles even address this, including AP News. When people discuss Kamala Harris and inflation, they criticize the Inflation Reduction Act, decry record high prices and the cost of prescription drugs.

Public discourse frequently highlights Harris's efforts to build up the middle class. However, many attribute the 20.1%+ overall price hike and record high gas prices to her tenure as vice president. There is prevalent criticism that Harris has overseen the decimation of the American Dream.

Despite historical negativity and criticism for her economic record, Harris has enjoyed a sentiment boost in the last couple of days, likely due to coordinated fawning and revisionism by the media to rehabilitate her policy record.

False Support or Dismissal?

Conversations that increase Harris's sentiment often center on touted accomplishments alongside Biden like the Inflation Reduction Act. Despite evidence to the contrary, many supporters still praise them for decreasing costs for families, lowering prescription drug prices, and making historic investments in clean energy jobs and manufacturing.

Harris advocates say these measures demonstrate her efficacy in legislative processes and her capability in executive functions. They say this increases their confidence in her potential presidency. However, these discussions seem based on tribal loyalism as opposed to direct discussion of the Act.

Some on the right speculate that voter support is being astroturfed by biased media and Democratic leaders. They say establishment “machines,” which include the White House press team and mainstream media, are attempting to prop up Kamala Harris by lying about her track record.

Sentiment toward Harris decreases significantly when people consider the negative impacts of inflation directly. High prices, low savings rates, and a general sense of economic decline put many voters on edge. Criticism often revolves around the feeling that Harris, along with Biden, failed to adequately address or prevent these economic challenges, leading many to doubt her competency in managing the economy.

Critics closely associate Harris with unpopular aspects of Biden's administration, such as weak global leadership and failure to address critical domestic issues. Many voters believe Harris would be an extension of Biden’s flaws, citing her role as "Enabler in Chief" and highlighting her record during her time as District Attorney and Attorney General in California as indicative of her inadequacy in future leadership.

Fluff Over Substance

Discussion trends show the public is simply not having the same discussions across the aisle or compared to media discourse. Supporters are vague in their endorsements, leaving room frame Harris’s role in passing progressive legislation as a positive, regardless of specifics. They focus broadly on her stance on issues like reproductive rights, voting rights, and clean energy investments, seeing her as a champion for significant and needed reforms.

Detractors, however, cite specific examples of Harris’s failures and hypocrisies. They emphasize economic difficulties caused by the Biden-Harris administration, the border crisis, and her general alignment with the Biden administration’s less popular policies.

On the opening day of the RNC, Teamsters President Sean O’Brien delivered the keynote speech as the first union leader to ever speak at the RNC. In reaction, discussions about labor unions and the political support of union members toward either Joe Biden or Donald Trump flooded social media.

MIG Reports data shows union members are vocal about several major topics, revealing insights into their political leanings, the controversies that shape their views, and the prevailing trends in discourse and sentiment.

Union-First: It’s a Mixed Bag

Discussions among union members about their political support for Joe Biden or Donald Trump reveal nuances. There are some key themes such as taxation, the economy, trade policies, healthcare, and labor rights.

Taxation

Many union members are dissatisfied with policies favoring the wealthy and increasing the tax burden on the middle class. Biden supporters appreciate his efforts to reduce unemployment and increase wages. Trump's critics highlight his tax reforms as benefiting the affluent.

Economy

Biden supporters credit his policies for reducing inflation, lowering gas prices, creating jobs, and emphasizing benefits for the working class. Trump supporters argue his deregulation and corporate tax cuts stimulate economic growth, though critics say these measures favor businesses over workers.

Trade Policies

Trump's tariffs and trade wars are seen as protective, but criticized by opponents for increasing costs and financial strain on Americans. Opinions are mixed on the effectiveness of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.

Healthcare and Social Security

Biden supporters value his commitment to expanding social safety nets, while Trump's stance on reducing government spending and repealing the Affordable Care Act raises concerns about benefits and affordable healthcare among union members.

Labor Rights

Many union members support Biden for his pro-union stance and support for collective bargaining, contrasting with Trump's actions which are perceived as weakening union power.

Corporate Influence and Elitism

Trump gets criticism for being corporate-friendly and pandering to elite interests. His supporters praise his anti-establishment rhetoric and efforts to dismantle entrenched political systems. 

Union Workers

Conversations about union workers expose sharp political divides, particularly their support for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Key areas of contention include union leadership endorsements, policy impacts, and the broader implications of political alliances on labor rights and worker conditions.

Union Leadership and Support

Biden often garners support from union leaders and members who emphasize his pro-labor stances. Leaders like Liz Shuler of the AFL-CIO call Biden the "most pro-union president in history." They highlight his efforts to promote labor rights, increase investments in new industries, and foster training and apprenticeship programs. Union leaders and members who favor Biden highlight the positive impacts on labor and the economy, aligning with historically labor-friendly Democratic positions.

Trump’s relationship with labor unions is contentious. Union members who support Trump often praise his economic policies and efforts to bring jobs back to the United States. However, many union leaders oppose Trump, labeling him anti-union due to his administration’s labor policies, which they argue weakened labor protections, undermined collective bargaining, and promoted right-to-work laws that diminish union power.

Policy Impacts and Economic Approaches

Union members favoring Biden argue his administration supports labor union goals and protects worker rights. Conversely, Trump supporters within unions argue his economic policies led to job growth and prosperity, though these claims are often disputed by union leadership pointing to the negative impact of his labor policies.

Sentiment Trends

Pro-Biden sentiment among union members includes trust in his commitment to labor rights and his administration's tangible successes. Pro-Trump union members exhibit enthusiasm for his economic policies and frustration with union leadership, which they perceive as out of touch or excessively partisan.

Controversial Topics

Immigration is a contentious issue, with some union members criticizing Biden's policies for potentially undercutting wages by flooding the labor market. Trump’s stance is seen as protecting domestic jobs.

Political Realignment

There is anxiety over union leadership's engagement with conservative politicians. Events like Sean O’Brien’s appearance at the Republican National Convention evoke strong reactions. Critics within unions protest any engagement with Republicans, citing historical antagonism toward labor unions in conservative policies. Some union members warn that Republican overtures toward labor unions may be strategic moves to weaken them later.

Broader Implications

Union-related conversations about Biden and Trump are deeply divided, reflecting broader political polarizations. Union leadership generally supports Biden while criticizing Trump’s labor policies.

However, a significant faction within rank-and-file union members perceives benefits in Trump’s economic approach. This dynamic continues to provoke vibrant debate and starkly contrasting sentiments among union members, encapsulating the broader national discourse on labor and political allegiance.

Lester Holt’s NBC News interview with Joe Biden gave the American public more fodder to criticize the performance and abilities of the President. The conversation generated conversations about taxation, economic policies, national security, and public trust. Analysis of the discourse reveals overarching themes and prevailing sentiments of disappointment and disillusionment with Joe Biden as the sitting president.

HOLT: "If you were to have, continue to run and be officially nominated, what happens if you have another episode like we saw during the debate?"

BIDEN: "What happenuvanuh?"

HOLT: "Yeah, what happens if you have another performance on that par, on that level?"

BIDEN: "I don't… pic.twitter.com/2YHmWBfokq

— Vince Coglianese (@VinceCoglianese) July 16, 2024

Economics, Economics, Economics

One of the most consistent topics Americans focus on is Biden’s tax policies, particularly his plans to repeal Trump-era tax cuts. Critics vehemently argue this will lead to increased taxes for most Americans. They also say this move will cement Trump as the champion of tax reduction and economic prosperity.

This narrative is potent among anyone who felt positively about their economic prospects and the market climate under Trump. Biden supporters counter by emphasizing his tax policies target only the very wealthy. They say this will correct economic disparities and bolster social programs.

Economic issues that concern Americans extend beyond taxation. People also worry about inflation and job security. Biden critics blame his administration for rising inflation, often called a hidden tax, saying it disproportionately affects the middle and lower classes. Many argue economic conditions were more favorable under Trump, highlighting personal anecdotes of better financial stability during his tenure.

Biden advocates, however, point out reports that say overall unemployment has decreased. They credit Biden’s policies for bringing jobs and stability back after COVID. This economic dialogue is significant in shaping the perceptions of undecided voters who prioritize financial stability and employment prospects.

However, there are serious questions about whether Americans believe the jobs and economy narrative Biden’s administration is pushing. Many express skepticism over constantly revised job reports and the realities of their own situations. Some voters feel Biden’s economic and job offerings are a last-ditch effort to shore up votes before November.

Critics point to the fact that most of Biden’s alleged job growth stems from federal jobs. In 2023, nearly 25% of all job gains in the U.S. job market were attributed to government positions. This highlights a significant dependence on public sector employment to support economic growth. Additionally, the government's household survey indicates, as of May 2024, there are only 971,000 more U.S.-born Americans employed compared to May 2019, before COVID. Whereas, the number of employed immigrants has risen by 3.2 million.

Open Borders, A Conversation Starter

National security and public safety are recurrent themes, fueled by discussions of border policies and recent high-profile criminal events. Biden detractors blame his administration for exacerbated security risks, citing open borders and increased crime rates. People contrast this with the promise of stricter, more effective security measures under Trump. This rhetoric aims to persuade voters who prioritize safety and border control to lean away from Biden.

Public trust issues also dominate the conversation around Biden’s recent interviews. Misinformation and distrust of politicians and the political system are rampant, with accusations from both sides. Biden's critics paint him as deceitful and out of touch, questioning his credibility and often quipping about conspiracies regarding past political misdeeds and current policies.

Biden supporters emphasize the need to hold on to democratic values and counter the rhetoric of Trump, which they believe is a threat to democracy itself. This polarized view challenges undecided voters to navigate through a cacophony of deeply contentious narratives.

How Americans Feel about Joe Biden

Sentiment trends confirm political divides. There is palpable frustration and anger among Biden’s critics, who insist he now clearly is incapable of governing. Their language is often heated with a sense of urgency to “save” the country from poor policies and a puppet presidency. Biden supporters are defensive. They take a proactive stance urging for continued support and engagement through voting to ensure a progressive trajectory.

For undecided and Independent voters, reactions suggest a complex landscape. Those dissatisfied with current economic conditions, swayed by the argument of high inflation and ineffective economic strategies, might be leaning away from Biden. However, voters who value democratic stability and view Trump as a destabilizing force might find solace in Biden's promises, despite economic concerns.

Ultimately, Biden's Lester Holt interview appears to have deepened existing political divides, with strong reactions on both sides. Biden’s base continues to defend him, resigning themselves to vote for him—if only to preserve the Party’s agenda. However, this simultaneously provides fodder for his critics who view supporting a clearly incapacitated president as equally threatening to the country.

For undecided and Independent voters, their sway might hinge on personal economic experiences and perceptions of national security rather than the interview alone. They may need more tangible evidence of policy impacts leading up to the elections.

MIG Reports data shows recent online discussions about economic hardships with inflation as a critical point of anxiety. Several key topics are frequently discussed among Americans as they react to their current economic struggles.

Many Americans are feeling significant cost increases day to day—particularly for essential items like food, gas, and housing. A lot of people point out this inflation disproportionately affects the middle and lower classes. Sentiment is frustration with anxiety about financial stability and the future.

Top Concerns for Americans

One of the big worries voters discuss is taxation. There is growing frustration about the fairness of the current tax system. Some critics—often on the left—say it favors the wealthy and large corporations at the expense of the middle class.

Higher taxes, particularly under Democratic policies, make people feel burdened as they are already struggling. Both working-class Democrat voters and right leaning voters have complaints about taxes on the middle class.

Employment and job security are also significant themes. People worry about corporations outsourcing American jobs, as in the case of Zoom cashiers in New York City. They also talk about the impact of union policies on job availability for blue collar workers.

Job concerns are intertwined with fears about the sustainability and dignity of the American middle-class workforce. Many middle- and working-class Americans worry about losing their jobs or not being able to find a job.

High inflation remains a top concern as well. Voters believe inflation rates are unacceptable and unsustainable. The rising cost of living, particularly groceries and housing, puts a significant strain on household budgets.

High interest rates also create a barrier for most Americans to purchase homes. This further adds to economic anxiety. Many voters also express displeasure with high gas prices, which have a cascading effect on their overall cost of living.

Dissatisfaction with Bidenomics

American families feel frustration, distrust in leadership, and a desire for change. Trump supporters are particularly vocal about reversing current policies they believe are detrimental to the economy. They dislike Biden policies they see as affecting fuel prices and border security.

Many argue Biden administration policies are increasing economic strain by exacerbating inflation and increasing layoffs. There is a distinct shift among some undecided voters and potential Biden defectors. They express sharp dissatisfaction with how Biden has handled the economy.

Talk about tangible economic outcomes which a second Trump administration might bring is increasing Trump’s support. Exasperated voters reminisce about the successes of his previous administration. They cite lower taxes, reduced regulation, and economic growth and appear to be attracting undecided voters and others dissatisfied with Biden.

Another positive discussion point is Trump’s proposal to exempt tips from tax. Many Americans hope for a return to policies that benefit the middle class. They want leaders who will address specific pain points like inflation and job security.

Conversely, Biden’s support drops with any spotlighting on his economic failures. Reminders of persistent inflation, high taxes, and a poor job market disheartens voters about his capability to manage the country's economy.

Stressing the immediate and visible impacts of pressing economic issues on everyday life resonates with those feeling the pinch in their own finances.

The trend of job report numbers consistently being revised down is revealing a worse job market to Americans who are unhappy. Many feel deceived by the initial reports indicating a more robust job market, only for them to be corrected later to reveal a less optimistic reality—which more closely aligns with many workers’ experiences.

There is a growing sense of distrust and frustration towards the agencies and media sources reporting current job figures. People feel misled and uncertain about the true state of the job market, which complicates personal and financial planning.

JUST IN: The unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.1%, going over 4% for the first time since November 2021.

- 74% of jobs added last month came from government and healthcare education.

- May jobs were revised down from 272K to 218K.

- April jobs were revised down from 165K to… pic.twitter.com/gHtXhW9EtP

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 5, 2024

Anger Over Job Growth Only in Government

One viral topic around jobs includes news that most of the new job creations were government and education jobs. For many Americans, this has multiple implications on their perception of economic health and labor market dynamics.

In general, reactions are negative. Many interpret this as a sign of an economy relying too much on government intervention rather than private sector growth. They say it’s indicative of a stagnant private sector that is being choked by inflation and regulation.

Government employment is typically considered more stable, implying a potential increase in job security for those lucky enough to secure these roles. However, an economy heavily tilted towards government employment makes many workers feel that unnecessary jobs are being artificially created instead of driven by private sector growth.

Some also claim these government jobs are created specifically to pad job numbers.

This is how the Biden Department of Labor is fudging the data now: all job openings are government. pic.twitter.com/udxQSeKj0f

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 2, 2024

Many people are doubtful about the sustainability and impact of government job creation. They say an increase in government jobs does not create a healthy, flourishing economy. They also point out the rising unemployment rates among certain demographic groups, questioning the effectiveness of the administration's policies.

Arguments Over “Black Jobs”

A particularly contentious point of conversation is around employment for black Americans. During the first presidential debate, Donald Trump used the term to underscore issues like job displacement due to illegal immigration or underemployment in black communities.

On social media, this controversy led to heated debates over terms like "black jobs" and "black unemployment," illustrating the divide in how different groups interpret and discuss labor market outcomes. Democrats and progressives took the opportunity to criticize Trump for differentiating “black jobs” in their own category.

Republicans mostly reacted by highlighting the rise in black unemployment rates over the past year, despite reported overall job growth. They allege the gains in government jobs are not translating into meaningful employment opportunities for black workers.

Voters on the right argue Trump’s main point was to highlight unemployment specifically within the black community. They assert discussing "black jobs" is merely a way to highlight employment opportunities and challenges faced by black Americans, akin to other demographic-specific economic indicators.

Preferences for the Trump Economy

Trump supporters of all racial and ethnic backgrounds express a strong belief that the job market was at its peak during Trump’s administration. They especially point to black unemployment rates. They cite figures showing black unemployment hit a record low of 5.3% in 2019 under Trump. These supporters often frame their arguments around the belief that illegal immigration is undercutting job opportunities for black Americans.

They maintain that Trump’s administration ushered in significant gains for minority employment, despite sharp rises in unemployment during COVID. To conservatives, Biden’s tenure has not continued these successes. They say economic recovery, especially for black Americans, has been dismal.

Conversely, Biden supporters and liberals accuse Trump and his constituents of using racially charged rhetoric to pit black Americans against immigrants. They point to the record lows in black unemployment achieved under Biden administration in 2023 as evidence that Biden is improving the job market for black Americans.

Democrats highlight investments in infrastructure and historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) as part of a broader strategy that includes focusing on economic development and community welfare. Many liberal voices decry the term “black jobs” as racially insensitive and misleading. They emphasize that job creation and employment statistics should not be segregated by race.

Democrats and liberals push narratives and Biden administration talking points claiming a successful and healthy economy with strong jobs performance. But working Americans who feel the effects of inflation and layoffs experience a different reality. While trying to remain hopeful for the future, many voters also voice longing for the economy and markets prior to COVID.

MIG Reports data shows emerging discussions about layoffs and firings with sentiment driven by ongoing political and economic conditions in Biden’s economy. This dialogue appears to be concentrated around several themes:

• The U.S. economy under Biden versus Trump
• Unemployment rates
• Inflation
• Legislation around job creation and layoffs

What Americans Are Saying

America’s economic performance frequently dominates voter conversations. People compare the achievements of Presidents Biden and Trump on the economy. There are many references to record-low unemployment rates and the two presidents’ respective economic policies, especially during and after COVID.

The COVID era brought extreme volatility to employment statistics, which continues to influence public sentiment. For example, there is frequent mention of the record high unemployment during Trump's term due to lockdowns. People also talk about how economic recovery has gone under Biden—specifically low unemployment rates.

Sentiment Trends

Attitudes about jobs and layoffs show a strong partisan divide. Biden supporters emphasize the reported low unemployment rates, stabilized inflation, significant investments in infrastructure, and legislative successes such as the CHIPS Act and lowered insulin prices.

Trump supporters highlight the unparalleled economic growth during his tenure prior to COVID, citing low taxes, high stock market performance, and strong GDP growth. Both sides seem to view the economy as much better during their preferred candidate’s presidency.

This political polarization is underscored by mutual accusations of economic mismanagement. Each side attributes positive or negative outcomes selectively to their favored administration.

Demographic Patterns

Discussions about layoffs and unemployment rates cut across various groups, but certain patterns emerge. Minorities, particularly African American and Hispanic communities, are noted for achieving historically low unemployment rates under both administrations. This serves as a focal point in debates about the effectiveness of each administration’s economic policies.

Industry Trends

Many discussions about jobs refer specifically to the manufacturing and energy sectors. This suggests wider concerns about job security in traditional blue-collar jobs. Voter focus on these industries confirms the importance of political platforms that heavily emphasize revitalizing American manufacturing. Workers want to ensure energy independence, which is touted as critical for job creation and economic stability.

Geographical Conversations

States like Mississippi, Kansas, and North Dakota come up frequently in job discussions. Reports cite Mississippi's record-low unemployment alongside the lowest labor force participation rate. This suggests a nuanced economic landscape where job growth does not necessarily equate to broader economic health.

Kansas shows slight changes in employment metrics, maintaining a middle ground in job growth across states. North Dakota’s energy production and high GDP per capita also get attention, highlighting its robust economic performance.

WARN Data

MIG Reports analysis of data from the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act revealed some interesting patterns. WARN notices are filed by employers announcing mass layoffs or plant closures. The dataset for 2024 year-to-date shows 2,247 layoff notices which affected 183,454 employees. That equates to an average of 82 workers per company layoff notice.

Some additional layoff trends include:

There is a significant spike of WARN notice activity in January of 2024, indicating a high number of layoffs planned at the beginning of the year. The number of WARN notices fluctuates across different months with noticeable peaks and troughs.

California has the highest number of WARN notices by a significant margin. Other states with a notable number of WARN notices include Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois.

Voter conversations about California Governor Gavin Newsom in recent days have been intensely critical. There are multiple issues negatively influencing opinions, but one of the most severe is the alarming increase in antisemitic incidents. Jewish communities have faced violent assaults from protesters, especially in Los Angeles. The outrage has been palpable, with citizens questioning Newsom's stance and demanding immediate action to curtail hate crimes on the streets of LA.

• In the last 10 days, Newsom’s overall support has averaged 40%, dipping down from 44% to 38% with a spike in online mentions.
• Sentiment toward Newsom regarding Israel-Palestine issues dropped dramatically from 50% to a low of 27%.
• Voters are also extremely negative about the economy and crime, with Newsom’s sentiment respectively reaching lows of 33% and 30%.

Antisemitic Protests

Public discourse about Gavin Newsom is intensely focused on incidents of violence and tension between pro-Palestine protesters and the Jewish community in Los Angeles. Many disapprove of the violent clashes where pro-Palestine protesters reportedly assaulted Jewish individuals near synagogues, particularly in the Pico-Robertson neighborhood.

There are vivid descriptions of chaos, including instances where Jewish women have been pinned to the ground and injured. These events sparked alarm and outrage from Californians. Many are questioning where Gavin Newsom and other leaders are during these times of crisis.

People are also discussing the broader issue of antisemitism. There is palpable anger toward Newsom for not publicly denouncing antisemitic actions. Protesters blocking the entrance to synagogues and verbally or physically harassing Jewish attendees exacerbate fears and frustrations.

Many argue these disturbing protests cross a line beyond political protest and enter religious and ethnic discrimination.

Top Issues Impacting Newsom Support

The issue of rising antisemitism in California has been at the forefront of conversation in recent days. However, there are several ongoing issues which land blame at Newsom’s door, making voters angry.

Economic Struggles

There is considerable anger toward California leadership for how they are handling economic matters. High unemployment rates, exacerbating income disparities, and a surging cost of living fuel discontent. Many Californians say Newsom's policies are accelerating the decline of a state once renowned for its economic vitality and prosperity. Voters direct particular ire at legislative decisions, such as those surrounding the controversial SB7, which some argue undermines voters' rights concerning taxes, housing, and utilities.

California Senate Bill 7 (SB7) removes county and city government abilities to object to state-determined housing needs and reduces review times. Supporters claim it will address the housing crisis more effectively. However, opponents argue it undermines local autonomy, imposes a one-size-fits-all approach, and overburdens smaller governments. They also worry about potential community resistance and legal challenges regarding the erosion of local control.

Crime and Public Safety

Another pain point for Californians is the issue of public safety and infrastructure. Crime is alarmingly high, there is widespread homelessness, and ineffective policing leaves many citizens feeling unsafe and neglected. A gun violence incident in Oakland, where a family was attacked with an AK-47, has generated pronounced negativity. Many call for Newsom to address the growing menace of violent crime, which Californians feel he has utterly failed at.

Environmental Grievances

Environmental and energy issues also generate harsh criticisms for Newsom. People accuse him of prioritizing the interests of large energy firms over public rights, causing distrust. Recent rulings by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) regarding rooftop solar have only intensified these frustrations. The sentiment that California is being mismanaged extends to perceptions that Newsom failed to capitalize on the state's natural resources sustainably.

Distaste for Newsom Himself

Many Californians also place intense scrutiny on Newsom’s personal conduct and political aspirations. People castigate him for his failures in governance and his gauche ambition for higher political office, including the presidency. There are many allegations of corruption within the Democratic leadership in California, amplified by recent high-profile raids, further tarnishing Newsom's reputation. Many say the state's political landscape has become increasingly chaotic and dysfunctional under his leadership.

There is also sharp criticism of Newsom’s communication methods and ways of addressing state issues. His decision to deliver his State of the State address via a pre-recorded video rather than a traditional speech has been met with disdain. People interpret the choice as indicative of Newsom’s off-putting lack of transparency and accountability. Voters see Newsom as a member of the political elite who absolve themselves of blame and wrongdoing while citizens bear the consequence of their poor governance.

A thread that combines these various strands of discontent is how voters view Newsom’s hypocrisy and lack of accountability. Whether it's the accusations of failing to support healthcare workers, the disenchantment over neglected public services, or his cancelled State of the State address, it seems trust in Newsom is at an all-time low. The overarching narrative is that California, under Newsom's leadership, is grappling with deep-seated social, economic, and political crises, causing many people and businesses to leave the state.