MIG Reports data from American conversations about the first weekend of early voting shows Trump positivity. Weighted analysis suggests the likely direction of mid-Friday through mid-Saturday early voting, as well as general discussion and sentiment trends.

According to voter discussions, Donald Trump has roughly even odds of leading in initial early voting. This assessment is made with moderate confidence, based on multiple MIG Reports data sets which—though they are not polls—often produce similar results to trusted polling.

Voter Reaction Analysis

• Trump: 66.80%
• Harris: 32.29%

Data suggests Donald Trump may lead up to 66.8% of early voting with his strongest positions on immigration, border security, and the economy. There is some concern regarding international conflict due to Trump’s polarizing leadership style—particularly regarding Israel and Ukraine).

Meanwhile, Harris does not hold a stronger position on the national security front. Harris’s support is found in discussions about healthcare, climate policy, and abortion. Harris gains ground with voters focusing on women’s rights and economic reform, although criticisms of her perceived ineffectiveness and lack of clear policy positions is pervasive.

Border Security

Border security is a dominant issue in early voter discussions, particularly for Trump supporters. Voters cite Trump's strong stance on securing the border, his push for stricter immigration policies, and his commitment to reducing illegal immigration as major reasons for their support.

Critics of Harris point to her leniency on immigration and "open borders" policies. They frame her approach as a security risk. Across voter conversations, including in early voting states, border security consistently ranks as a high priority issue. This leads to Trump gaining overwhelming support with voters who want border security urgently.

Preference for Trump also dominates about immigration policy, which many discuss with border security. His proposed wall and efforts to deport illegal immigrants resonates with voters worried about national security. Harris get criticism for her immigration policies, though some appreciate her focus on human rights and a path to citizenship for immigrants.

Economy

The economy is the other most frequently discussed issue for both candidates, though the tone varies significantly. Trump supporters praise his tax cuts, job creation, and efforts to stimulate economic growth—especially in sectors like manufacturing and small business.

Harris supporters focus on her plans to reduce inequality, provide healthcare for all, and tackle the rising cost of living. While Harris gains voters concerned about middle-class economics, Trump is the dominant choice for those focused on economic stability and conservative financial policies.

Social Justice

For Harris, social justice is a key issue among progressive voters. Discussions about her policies on racial equality, police reform, and civil rights play a central role in her appeal.

Among progressives, Trump is viewed as unsympathetic to social justice concerns as they accuse him of exacerbating racial tensions. The polarized nature of this debate shows division between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats overwhelmingly preferring Harris on social issues.

Healthcare

Healthcare is also important for Harris’s supporters. Voters are drawn to her positions on expanding access to healthcare, supporting Medicare for All, and lowering prescription drug prices.

Criticisms of Trump’s healthcare policies, particularly his efforts to dismantle Obamacare are rampant among those who prioritize healthcare access. Trump supporters are more likely to praise his administration’s deregulation efforts in the healthcare industry, focusing on lowering costs and expanding options for consumers. Many also appreciate his alignment with RFK Jr.’s health platform.

Abortion

Abortion is a particularly important issue for Harris supporters, especially among women and progressives. Harris’s pro-choice stance and her vocal support for protecting abortion rights is a pillar of her platform, gaining a large share of her voters.

Trump’s supporters, particularly those with conservative values, are strongly opposed to abortion and prefer his efforts to restrict abortion access and appoint pro-life judges to the Supreme Court. The debate over abortion is a clear line of division between the two candidates, with highly emotional and polarized discourse.

The Mood for 2024

There is a noticeable anti-establishment tone throughout voter discussions, particularly among Trump supporters. They frequently voice distrust of the current political and media systems. These voters frame their support for Trump as a rebellion against entrenched elites, corrupt governance, and bureaucratic overreach. They particularly highlight border security, economic regulation, and perceived threats to national sovereignty.

For Harris supporters, while less overtly anti-establishment, there is still some frustration with the status quo. The is a point of contention regarding social justice, healthcare, and economic inequality. Progressive voters express a desire reform, but their stance is more about transforming the current system from within, rather than overthrowing it.

Overall, the anti-establishment sentiment is stronger and more explicitly expressed on the conservative side, whereas progressive voters are more focused on reforming the existing structures rather than rejecting them entirely.

Recent layoffs and discussions about low hiring in the U.S. job market dominates voter conversations, according to MIG Reports data. Americans indicate their personal experiences with the economy shape their reactions to job reports. There continues to be significant division between those who perceive the job market as improving and those who believe it is deteriorating.

Data suggests public sentiment based on the language voters use to communicate their experiences. MIG Reports analysis coincides with a recent study from the Challenger Report showing 193% more job cuts from July to August 2024.

BREAKING: Hiring in 2024 is at a historic low, per CNBC + Challenger.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 20, 2024

Overall Sentiment Breakdown

The job market in 2024 elicits polarized reactions:

• 55-62% of Americans express negative views, largely shaped by their personal financial struggles and the impact of inflation.
• 31-45% hold an optimistic outlook, focusing on macroeconomic indicators such as job creation, wage growth, and a strong stock market.

Despite some optimism, doubt and discouragement dominates voter discussions, particularly among those who distrust economic data or feel the government is not addressing the real economic issues Americans face.

Worker Perception of the Job Market

Most Americans in 2024 view the job market negatively. Many cite inflation, economic instability, and poor job quality as key concerns. Workers feel disconnected from the administration’s reports of macroeconomic success, pointing instead to personal struggles with rising living costs and job instability.

For struggling Americans, the realities of layoffs and stalled hiring directly affects their day-to-day lives. Personal accounts of job loss are also permeated by mentions of paycheck-to-paycheck living and eroded purchasing power.

Some do hold a positive view of the job market, however. They highlight media reporting and government figures of low unemployment, job creation, and economic growth as reasons for optimism. This group focuses on broader economic indicators like wage growth and a strong stock market, rather than their personal experiences.

Typically, in higher economic classes or politically left leaning, this group attributes economic successes to government policies. They particularly mention Biden-Harris measures, viewing the economy as successfully recovering from COVID.

Reasons for Reactions

People who believe the job market is bad typically base their views on personal experiences. They talk about their struggles with inflation, job instability, and rising living costs. These voters frequently blame government policies for failing to address the economic challenges middle class Americans face. For them, the negative impacts of inflation and unstable jobs outweigh any broader economic successes.

Those who perceive the job market positively rely on the Biden-Harris administration to support their views. They point to low unemployment, job creation in industries like manufacturing, and wage increases. This group tends to trust official economic reports and see selective macroeconomic trends as evidence of a stable and improving economy. They attribute economic progress to policies that they believe are fostering growth and recovery.

How Americans Talk About Jobs

The language people use in these discussions reflects their perspectives on the job market. Those who view the job market negatively often use first-person pronouns like "I" and "me" to emphasize their personal struggles. They talk about their individual experiences with statements like "I'm struggling to make ends meet" or "I lost my job because of inflation." This use of first-person language underscores the personal impact the economy has on their lives.

Voters who see the job market as strong tend to use third-person pronouns, such as "they" and "them." They describe the economy from a more detached perspective, with phrases like, “They’re creating jobs" or "The economy is growing." This language suggests a broader view, focusing less on personal hardship and more on the general direction of the economy.

Additionally, those with a positive outlook often adopt a factual and confident tone, while those with negative views express frustration, skepticism, and distrust. Skeptics frequently challenge the accuracy of official economic data, using sarcastic or confrontational language to question the narrative of economic recovery.

Abortion continues to be a central issue for the Harris campaign and voters are reacting. Following the KamalaHQ X account posting commentary on the tragic death of Amber Thurman, a Georgia woman who died after complications from an abortion pill, Americans are divided.

The Harris campaign used this incident to reinforce her stance on reproductive rights, positioning herself as a defender of women's healthcare. However, this has sparked fierce debate across party lines, with Republicans challenging the accuracy and sincerity of her message.

Statement from Vice President Harris on new report of a 28-year-old Georgia woman dying after not receiving urgent care needed for an infection under Georgia’s extreme abortion ban https://t.co/sf1yJp3foG pic.twitter.com/kM0pq3qG3K

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) September 17, 2024

In the statement Harris said:

“Abortion bans have fatal consequences. Amber Thurman should still be alive today. This is not just about Roe. This is about women’s lives.”

This frames the abortion debate as deserving sympathy in the wake of a tragic loss of life, blaming abortion restrictions for Thurman's death. But Republicans are pushing back hard, challenging Harris on the facts of the story.

Republicans Fact Check the Amber Thurman Case

As many on the right point out, the tragic death of Amber Thurman has been used to highlight the dangers of restrictive abortion laws, particularly by the Harris campaign. However, the facts tell a more complicated story. Amber Thurman died after a botched medical procedure following complications from an abortion pill. The problem wasn't an abortion ban—it was the abortion pill itself, combined with medical malpractice.

.@michaeljknowles weighs in on this massive lie. https://t.co/lSjWm2tVYk pic.twitter.com/ZK2rBAdfyl

— The Michael Knowles Show (@MKnowlesShow) September 19, 2024

Georgia’s abortion laws, while stringent, still allow medical procedures like D&Cs (dilation and curettage)—a procedure for surgically removing sections of the lining of the uterus. This includes procedures following abortions or miscarriages. No state, Georgia included, prevents doctors from performing life-saving procedures to protect a woman’s health, a point conveniently omitted from Harris’s narrative.

For Republicans, this case exemplifies the broader issue: Democrats like Harris are using selective facts to maintain support on one of the top issues for their voter base. Meanwhile, they ignore the reckless prescription practices and FDA oversight failures which contributed to Thurman's death.

Kamala Harris is a LIAR!

Amber Nicole Thurman didn’t die because of lack of an abortion.

The abortion is what killed her! Abortion pills lead to her death.

Even Newsweek is reporting the truth: https://t.co/F8EjAFOgiQ https://t.co/CmCMFoVaHc pic.twitter.com/hMlIseuSmK

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) September 19, 2024

MIG Reports data shows:

• Harris, who typically leads Trump in voter sentiment regarding abortion, dipped to 41% approval, below Trump’s 43% on the day she released the misleading statement.
• In the last few days, both Trump and Harris have surged in sentiment for their respective abortion platforms.

How Americans View this Issue

American voter reactions to this incident and Harris’s campaign framing have been deeply polarized. According to MIG Reports data samples:

Democrats

• 72% believe Harris’s commentary on the abortion pill incident was accurate and support her position.
• 62% are more likely to vote for Harris because of her abortion views.

Republicans

• 62% view Harris's remarks as misleading, saying her campaign politicized the tragedy for electoral gain.
• 45% of Republicans say they are less likely to support Harris because of her abortion platform.

The partisan divide on this issue is not surprising. For Democrats, reproductive rights are a non-negotiable issue and many express intentions to vote with abortion as the main driver. They see Harris as a strong advocate for women’s health and view abortion bans as dangerous.

Pro-life Republicans see Harris’s approach as exploitative and misinformed. They shift focus to the ethical concerns around abortion pills and late-term abortions. Many within the party believe abortion should be restricted, and 25% even argue the abortion pill itself is too dangerous for unrestricted access—using the Thurman case as an example.

Abortion is Likely Crucial for Harris’s Election

Abortion has always been a divisive issue, but in the 2024 election, it has become a flashpoint. Especially in battleground states where voter sentiments can tip the balance of electoral votes. In states like Georgia, where Amber Thurman perished, local laws play a significant role in shaping voter views. Laws like Georgia’s Heartbeat Bill, which restrict abortions after six weeks, are a major point of contention.

MIG Reports data shows how abortion may influence voters this cycle:

• 62% of overall voters express anger or outrage over abortion bans, with many calling for restrictive laws to be repealed.
• 31% defend abortion bans, viewing them as necessary to protect the unborn.
• 7% favor the state-specific approach to abortion laws, part of Donald Trump’s platform.

Demographic trends also highlight the influence of abortion on voter behavior:

• 71% of women oppose abortion bans, particularly women under 30, with 65% of this demographic opposing these restrictions.
• 45% of men support abortion bans, showing a more divided perspective along gender lines.

The broader implications for the election are significant. In swing states, where independent voters often determine the outcome, abortion could be a deciding factor. Independents are split, with 45% believing the issue is being politicized and 31% advocating for greater access to reproductive healthcare. These voters are likely the ones Harris needs to sway if she hopes to secure victory in key battlegrounds.

The Importance of Abortion for Democrats

For Kamala Harris, abortion is not just an issue—it’s central to her 2024 platform. Her emphasis on reproductive rights resonates strongly with her base, especially women and younger voters. By focusing on the dangers of abortion restrictions, Harris is attempting to galvanize support from pro-choice advocates and position herself as a protector of women’s health.

However, the risks for Harris are clear. By overplaying the tragedy of Amber Thurman and misrepresenting the facts, she risks alienating moderate voters who might view her rhetoric as too extreme or politically motivated. The focus on reproductive rights could also backfire in swing states, where voters are more likely to support moderate or state-specific approaches to abortion laws.

Recently, the Teamsters Union released the results of internal straw poll, electronic poll, and telephone poll shows significant favor toward Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. This is a shift from polling showing a Democratic lead prior to Biden dropping from the presidential race.

MIG Reports analysis of discourse shows union sentiment moving against Harris and why union workers are gravitating toward Trump.

TEAMSTERS RELEASE PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT POLLING DATA

“For the past year, the Teamsters Union has pledged to conduct the most inclusive, democratic, and transparent Presidential endorsement process in the history of our 121-year-old organization—and today we are delivering on… pic.twitter.com/CnFNN9uosx

— Teamsters (@Teamsters) September 18, 2024

Trump's Lead Among Union Workers

Donald Trump has a significant lead among union workers, a critical working and voting group of Americans. Between 58% and 60% support Trump according to recent Teamsters polling. MIG Reports data reflects similar sentiments in voter discussions. Union workers, particularly those in industries like manufacturing and construction, are shifting toward Trump. They say his policies align better with their economic interests and job security.

• MIG Reports data shows enthusiasm for Trump among 65.2% of union workers compared to 34.8% for Harris.

Enthusiasm for Trump

The enthusiasm for Trump among union workers is notable and strong, potentially signaling a significant voting bloc shift. Many union members admire Trump’s populist approach and his willingness to challenge the establishment. His "America First" policies, particularly on trade and immigration, resonate deeply with workers who feel threatened by outsourcing and illegal immigration.

Trump’s tough stance on these issues has created a sense of loyalty among union workers. They believe he is the only candidate willing to fight for their jobs and livelihoods. This enthusiasm is reflected in online discussions, where workers express admiration for Trump’s leadership and economic policies.

Reasons for Support

The top issues union workers cite with their support are Trump’s stances on:

• Trade
• Immigration
• Job creation

His trade policies, which focus on protecting American industries and reducing outsourcing, appeal directly to workers who fear losing jobs to foreign competition. His tough rhetoric on immigration, which many view as a threat to job security and wage growth, further solidifies his support.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris faces significant challenges with gaining union worker support. While she has attempted to court their support through endorsements from labor unions and promises of progressive policies, her association with the Democratic establishment and perceived focus on social justice issues over economic concerns alienates many. Union members skeptical of her record on trade and labor rights often see Harris as out of touch with their immediate needs, particularly regarding job security and economic growth.

Harris's Struggles

While Harris’s platform includes policies aimed at workers’ rights, raising the minimum wage, and addressing income inequality, these issues do not seem to resonate as strongly as Trump’s focus on job security and trade protection. Harris is perceived as more aligned with corporate interests and global trade practices, which many view as harmful to their industries. This disconnect has led to a lack of enthusiasm for her candidacy, as many union members remain unconvinced, she can effectively represent their interests.

The stark division between partisan narratives and trust in the media has grown clearer in recent weeks. Previous MIG Reports analysis showed Democrats remain one of the few groups which consistently trust mainstream media.

With 64.8% of all voters expressing strong distrust toward mainstream media, the 24.9% who say they do have trust is largely composed of Democrats. This is consistent with 2023 Gallup data showing:

• 11% of Republicans trust media
• 29% of Independents trust media
• 58% of Democrats trust media

This divergence raises significant questions about how media narratives, especially those with a partisan slant, can shape voter opinion and electoral outcomes. Media narratives, which many Americans believe are biased toward Democratic viewpoints, disproportionately influence voters who still trust these outlets.

Whether Democrats continue to trust media narratives because of confirmation bias, or those who trust media lean Democratic because they are influenced by narratives is unclear. However, the correlation of Democrats trusting the media and media promoting Democratic narratives remains.

Through selective framing, coverage time, and emphasis, the media plays an active role in shaping political perspectives, often long after stories have been debunked or corrected. MIG Reports analysis shows three recent examples of media narratives shaping Democratic voter opinions on key political issues.

Hook Line and Sinker

Migrants Eating Pets in Ohio

Following the presidential debate, rumors of Haitian migrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, dominated media coverage. Mainstream media, including ABC debate moderators who fact-checked Trump, largely positioned the story as unfounded or even fabricated.

Despite copious local resident allegations, certain police reports documenting missing pets, and the Springfield city manager acknowledging claims of pets being eaten, many Democratic voters still align with media narratives critical of the story and Republicans.

Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:

• Nearly 53 hours covering the Springfield city manager’s denial in the three days following the debate.
• Only 9.5 hours covering allegations of migrants eating cats.

There is a slight increase in mentions of the Springfield city manager after footage emerged from March of 2024 in which he acknowledged resident claims. However, these media mentions only total six hours compared to 23 hours the day after David Muir’s fact check against Trump during the debate.

MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:

• 80-90% Democrats still say pet consumption is unproven.
• 10-20% Democrats admit pet consumption is legitimate or indicative of larger immigration issues.
• 10-20% Republicans still say pet consumption is unproven.
• 80-90% Republicans believe pet consumption is legitimate or indicative of larger immigration issues.

The way media outlets frame the story—blaming Trump for “unproven allegations”—illustrates how media impacts perceptions. Democrats largely still dismiss the story as rumor, aligning with media talking points. Republicans, who largely distrust mainstream media, instead view the story—regardless of whether the pet consumption allegations are true—as an indictment of the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy.

The Danger of Bomb Threats

Following the media frenzy over pets in Ohio, narratives turned to bomb threats in Springfield. The media framed multiple bomb threats as a result of “dangerous” and “xenophobic” rhetoric by Trump and Republicans.

A viral clip of CNN’s Dana Bash shows her directly blaming J.D. Vance for drawing violence to Ohio through his allegedly divisive comments.

Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:

• 175 hours covering bomb threats in the last five days.
• 17 hours clarifying threats as a hoax after DeWine’s announcement.

Following Ohio Governor Mike DeWine’s announcement that the bomb threats were a hoax committed by foreign actors, media coverage continued to mention bomb threats for more than 100 hours while only mentioning them as a hoax for 17.3 total hours and a mere 17 minutes two days after the revelation.

MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:

• 60% of Democrats are discussing the bomb threats as real.
• 20% of Democrats are discussing the bomb threats as a hoax.
• There is no quantifiable number of Republicans discussing the bomb threats as real, but 31% express concern about community safety.
• 70% of Republicans are discussing the bomb threats as a hoax.

Again, biased coverage by mainstream outlets highlights how crafted narratives push slanted perspectives on voters who trust legacy reporting. This phenomenon is exacerbated by outlets spending far less time correcting falsehoods.

Democrats, a majority of whom still trust the media, show a greater tendency to internalize the mainstream narrative without scrutiny. Republicans, who largely distrust the media, are more likely to dismiss narratives which are proven biased by independent reporting.

Golf Course Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump

The second assassination attempt on Donald Trump triggered another wave of intense media coverage. While many Democrats expressed concern about the attempt, they strongly focus on linking the event to Trump’s divisive rhetoric.

Narrative battles again erupted as Republicans claim Democrats and the media are “victim blaming” Trump by saying his own language caused the assassination attempts. Fox News reporter Peter Doocy’s confrontation with White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre about how Democrats choose to discuss these events—continuously calling Trump a “threat”—demonstrates the partisan messaging clash.

Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:

• 818.5 hours covering the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in the three days following.
• 328 hours covering Trump and mentioning his “rhetoric.”
• 671 hours covering Trump and mentioning him as a “threat.”
• 96 hours covering Trump and mentioning “threat to democracy.”
• 2.8 hours covering the assassination and mentioning “Democrat rhetoric.”

Combined hours of coverage mentioning Trump with “rhetoric,” “threat,” and “threat to democracy” total 1,095 hours compared to coverage of the assassination alone and mentions of “Democrat rhetoric” at just more than 820 hours.

MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:

• 24% of Democrats are mentioning the assassination attempt.
• 60% of Democrats are mentioning Trumps divisive rhetoric.
• 57% of Republicans are mentioning the assassination attempt.
• 21% of Republicans are mentioning Trumps divisive rhetoric.

Once again, Democratic reactions suggest legacy media has strong influence over voter views with focus on Trump’s rhetoric rather than the assassination attempt itself. For Democrats, media framing reinforces pre-existing beliefs that Trump’s language incites violence. For Republicans, it further deepens distrust of both the media and Democrat credibility.

Media in the Tank for Democrats

Multiple data sources suggest the mainstream media’s framing of high-profile stories has a profound impact on the electorate—particularly Democrats who continue to trust these outlets. The disproportionate airtime given to narratives that align with Democratic viewpoints continues to foster anger and distrust among non-Democratic voters.

People use terms like “gaslighting,” “media bias,” and “we’re being lied to,” in discussions about how legacy outlets report on American political and cultural issues.

Increasingly, voters say they believe mainstream outlets attempt to control which stories gain traction and how long they remain in the spotlight. They suggest bias in favor of Democrats is intended to influence voter opinions and, ultimately, election outcomes.

However, given that Democratic voters compose the dwindling segment of Americans who consistently believe mainstream media narratives, some conclude the media’s influence and credibility is declining.

This is demonstrated by:

• Democrats often voting in alignment with issues amplified by the media, such as abortion, social justice, and government spending programs.
• Republicans repeatedly expressing distrust in media, driving them to seek alternative sources of information on platforms like X.

An ABC whistleblower affidavit alleging the Harris campaign colluded with ABC to cheat in the presidential debate is generating controversy. MIG Reports analysis shows deep mistrust of the media and government institutions, with voters reacting to the polarized political environment.

Yesterday, ABC made a statement regarding the whistleblower affidavit. The only thing ABC said was that they did not give the questions or the topics to the Harris campaign. Well, nobody accused ABC of doing that. ABC has been accused of the following:

1.) Giving the Harris…

— Black Insurrectionist--I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS (@DocNetyoutube) September 17, 2024

There is strong sense of skepticism and disillusionment, particularly among Trump supporters. They often express beliefs that the establishment is working against him. Conversations also highlight a growing narrative of "waking up" to the realization that systemic bias and corruption permeate media coverage and political processes.

Endorsements from prominent anti-establishment figures like Elon Musk and certain rappers and businessmen also generate enthusiasm from voters who do not necessarily view themselves as conservative but align with Trump’s anti-establishment image.

What Voters are Saying

• 35% of discussions express distrust toward the media and establishment politics, highlighting widespread skepticism of institutional credibility.
• 25% mention polarization and tribalism, illustrating sharp divisions among factions.
• 20% discuss the concept of "waking up" to establishment bias, saying they now see through media manipulation for the first time.
• 10% voice distrust of political parties and the rise of conspiracy theories.

Negative sentiment related to the “whistleblower” keyword is not directed toward the individual, but the information revealed in the affidavit which, if true, strongly condemns ABC and Disney.

Media and Establishment Loses Credibility

35% of discussions express distrust toward the media and establishment.

Distrust of mainstream media and the political establishment underpins most voter conversations about the ABC whistleblower. Many believe the media, particularly outlets like ABC, actively work to manipulate public opinion against Trump.

People use words like "bias," "fake news," and "deep state." This exemplifies concerns that legacy institutions are not untrustworthy and involved in a coordinated effort to undermine Trump's candidacy. Negative sentiment extends both to media bias and a rejection of establishment politics as voters feel disconnected and disillusioned.

Polarization and Tribalism

25% mention polarization and tribalism.

Both pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions engage in deeply tribal behavior. Conversations are emotionally charged, with voters using inflammatory language to attack the opposing side. Rather than fostering nuanced debate, these interactions often devolve into accusations of "communism," "racism," “threats to democracy,” and "fascism."

Party loyalty often overshadows good faith conversations, reinforcing an "us vs. them" mentality. Entrenched divisions in the American electorate show each side increasingly views the other as an existential threat to the country’s future.

"Waking Up" Narrative

20% discuss the concept of "waking up" to establishment bias.

Many voters say they are "waking up" to institutional and establishment corruption. They believe the media, political elites, and other institutional forces are aligned in opposition to Trump’s re-election.

This group often says they have only recently become aware of this anti-Trump coordination. New and longstanding Trump supporters see themselves as having pierced through the veil of establishment propaganda. They see themselves as champions of truth and defenders against an oppressive establishment.

Distrust Toward Political Parties

10% voice distrust of political parties and the rise of conspiracy theories.

There is noticeable frustration with political parties—especially the Republican Party for not defending Trump. Some conversations reveal dissatisfaction with the GOP, where voters express disappointment that establishment Republicans do not push back against liberal media and political forces.

This internal criticism highlights a fragmentation in partisan politics, which aligns with previous reports of political realignment away from parties and in favor of ideology. Republican Party leaders—especially RINOs—are seen as either complicit or ineffectual in protecting conservative values.

Conspiracy theories and misinformation often generate discussion along with partisan disillusionment. Many share and discuss speculations about the deep state working with the media to rig elections, spread disinformation, or otherwise undermine Trump.

These theories often tie into broader fears about globalism, socialism, or corporate influence over politics. This element of the conversation suggests a growing distrust of official narratives to explain current events.

This sentiment is evident in reactions to Governor Ron DeSantis announcing an independent state investigation of the most recent Trump assassination attempt, citing distrust in the same federal agencies which many believe are targeting Trump.

BREAKING: Governor DeSantis Moves Trump Assassination Case Under State Jurisdiction

This means that Ryan Routh can be prosecuted for attempted m*rder, not just federal charges.

The Governor explained his rationale, saying, "In my judgment, it's not in the best interest of our… pic.twitter.com/TjvhX3aLWR

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) September 17, 2024

MIG Reports analysis of sentiment and support for Kamala Harris among Democratic voters reveals an enthusiasm gap. While some express strong support for her policies and leadership, most are not driven by Harris’s personal or candidate appeal. Instead, much of the enthusiasm stems from dislike for Donald Trump and his MAGA agenda.

Harris, who was deeply unpopular among Democrats during her 2020 presidential bid and in her tenure as Biden’s VP, seems to still be struggling with positive voter perceptions. This analysis explores key patterns behind voter support for Kamala Harris, highlighting how anti-Trump sentiment shape Democratic voter behavior.

Can Harris Pull Out a Win on Trump Hatred?

In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris faces similar challenges to those in 2016 and 2004, where negative sentiment against the opposition wasn’t enough to drive turnout. In both elections, opposition to Trump and Bush was strong, but lack of enthusiasm for Clinton and Kerry respectively resulted in lower Democratic turnout.

Google search trends indicate, in the previous two election cycles, the highest spikes in user searches for “register to vote” happened in mid to late September.

This year, mail-in ballot requests in critical states like Pennsylvania are down for Democrats, both compared to Republicans and compared to Democrats in 2020.

📢 PENNSYLVANIA DATA DROP ‼️

Mail-in ballot requests R vs D

2020 (50 days out)
GOP: 376,956
Dem: 1,101,962

2024 (50 days out)
GOP: 321,077
Dem: 798,946

KAMALA IS DOWN 303,016 requests compared to 2020.

Dems are shaking in their crocs!!!

— Cliff Maloney (@Maloney) September 17, 2024

Harris's policies on immigration and Palestine are controversial within her own party, with many Democrats either finding her too liberal or disagreeing with her foreign policy. If her campaign relies solely on Trump hatred without generating positive enthusiasm for her candidacy, voter turnout may fall short. This may result in a repeat of the 2016 and 2004 elections, where Democrats were surprised to find opposition wasn’t enough to secure victory.

Enthusiasm is Actually Anti-Trump Fervor

Conditional Support for Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris has a base of support among Democratic voters, according to MIG Reports analysis of online discussions. Many voters praise her performance in the debate, her background as a prosecutor, and her stance on issues like social justice and healthcare.

Discussions of Kamala Harris which do not focus on the election show 43.6% express direct support for her. However, this support is not as stark with deeper analysis. In conversations mentioning Harris's policies or leadership positively, reactions also focus on the political climate over her accomplishments.

Criticism of Trump as a Driving Force

Much of the conversation among Democrats which mention Kamala Harris are not about her but rather about Donald Trump. In election-specific discussions, 25% of conversations focus solely on criticizing Trump. They label him as representing "terror" and "lies.” Harris supporters largely incorporate this sentiment in all their supportive mentions of Harris.

Voters frame Harris as a necessary opponent to Trump, positioning her as a vehicle for resisting Trump’s influence rather than rallying around her personal achievements or vision. This pattern suggests, for many Democrats, Harris represents the best hope for defeating Trump, rather than an inspiring candidate on her own.

Voter Behavior Motivated by Opposition

In conversations mentioning Trump and Harris in a head-to-head race, there is a mix of positive and negative sentiments about Harris. While 42% of the conversation was positive, much of that positivity is focused on her role as a foil to Trump. Voters view her as a champion against his policies.

Broader trends in Democratic voter enthusiasm show an urgency to reject Trump outweighing affirmative support for Harris.

Kamala as a Symbol of Opposition

In many cases, Kamala Harris's support appears to be symbolic, with voters rallying behind her as a replacement for Biden and a figurehead of the Party. While some say they appreciate her leadership and policies, 23.5% primarily criticize Trump and his allies. In addition to her role as a political opponent to Trump, Harris’s identity as a woman of color adds to the symbolic nature of her candidacy.

For many Democrats, her race and gender are celebrated as markers of progress, positioning her as a trailblazer in American politics. However, her identity also draws skepticism for others, with some feeling her symbolism outweighs her qualifications. This divide underscores the conditional nature of her support, where enthusiasm hinges on what she represents rather than her achievements.

MIG Reports shows voters are comparing crime rates during the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations. As people engage with the topic of crime, themes of political bias, media manipulation, and immigration policies surface as focal points. These discussions highlight overarching concerns about how crime is managed, reported, and perceived in the current political climate.

Views of Crime Under Democrats

Data shows public sentiment leaning heavily toward skepticism about Biden-Harris policies for handling of crime.

• 62% of the MIG Reports data sample express distrust in crime statistics reported by the Biden-Harris administration.
• 45% believe crime has increased in discussions mentioning “crime under Trump.”
• The disparity between the views of each administration focuses on immigration, political agendas, and media bias.

What Voters are Saying

When comparing crime under Trump versus Biden-Harris, many view Trump’s administration as maintaining stronger law enforcement policies. They mention border security and stricter immigration controls.

In contrast, Americans perceive Biden-Harris policies as too lenient, particularly regarding immigration and sanctuary cities. Around 62% of commenters blame Democrats for increasing crime. People link rising crime to border policies, citing specific instances of migrant crime. They say current policies embolden criminals and endanger public safety.

Discussions also emphasize widespread distrust of media and official crime statistics—like rampant distrust in job numbers. Many Americans feel the media is downplaying or manipulating crime data to protect the Biden-Harris administration, including David Muir in the recent debate.

These perceptions about incorrect data further generate discontent. 45% suggest that media bias plays a significant role in shaping public opinion about the administration’s effectiveness.

Conversations don’t contain any noticeable defense that media is not shaping public opinion. Many also question the accuracy of reported crime stats, citing the number of large metropolitan areas which don’t report crime statistics to the FBI.

There are examples, like one from 2022. Among 19 of the largest law enforcement agencies—all of which are responsible for more than 1 million people—seven were missing from the FBI's crime data.

Voters are also concerned about politicization of law enforcement. Many believe the justice system under Biden-Harris is biased, with certain groups receiving preferential treatment. This idea of unequal justice adds to the frustration and deepens the divide between supporters of the two administrations.

Recently, White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby accidentally sent a “reply all” to an inquiry from four members of the House of Representatives regarding the Afghanistan withdrawal with. In it, he said there is “no use” responding to a “handful of vets on botched Afghan withdrawal,” calling them “all of one stripe.”

“NSC Spokesman (Ret Rear Admiral) Kirby said it was ‘no use in responding' to a 'handful of vets' on botched Afghan withdrawal” who are “all of one stripe”

I met him once at the Pentagon. This is very on brand.https://t.co/af7gzS4tDg

— Alex Plitsas 🇺🇸 (@alexplitsas) September 12, 2024

MIG Reports data indicates Americans often view government using them to serve as tax subjects, rather than serving the people. Kirby’s comments infame conversations about government elites dismissing American concerns to pursue their own ends.

Democratic voters are split between those who feel represented by their government and those who express disillusionment. Their primary concerns revolve around systemic economic issues, gun control, and government transparency. Many maintain hope for meaningful reforms, though a significant portion views the government as prioritizing elite interests over public welfare.

Republican voters often feel disconnected from the government, particularly under Democratic leadership. Their dominant sentiment reflects a sense of disenfranchisement, particularly concerning issues like taxation and government inefficiency. While some maintain faith in specific Republican leaders, many Republicans express strong distrust in the broader political establishment.

Democrat Sentiments

General Representation

Democratic voters are divided. About 45% feel the Democratic Party's progressive initiatives—such as efforts to address gun violence and immigration reform—reflect their voices in governance.

However, an almost equal 40% feel alienated, perceiving the government as elitist and unresponsive. Anti-establishment Democrats believe they are treated more like tax subjects, disconnected from decision-making processes. The remaining 15% hold mixed or neutral views, acknowledging both positive efforts and shortcomings.

Economic Issues

Economic concerns dominate much of the discourse among Democrats.

• 40% express optimism, believing the government can address systemic issues like healthcare and inflation with the right reforms.
• 35% express frustration with political corruption and mismanagement, accusing elected officials of failing to prioritize middle-class concerns.
• 25% of Democrats have mixed feelings, reflecting both hope for change and skepticism toward entrenched political interests.

Gun Control

Gun control is a particularly contentious issue for Democratic voters.

• 30% express a sense of hope and representation, believing in the potential for meaningful reform.
• 55% feel disenfranchised. This group views the government as capitulating to the gun lobby and failing to enact necessary legislation to curb gun violence.
• 15% express resignation, believing their political engagement will not have an impact.

Security Issues

Foreign policy and national security also divide Democratic voters.

• 65% feel disconnected from the government. They argue the government prioritizes political maneuvering over national security.
• 25% are hopeful, believing Democratic leaders are pushing for necessary reforms.
• 10% convey mixed or uncertain sentiments, questioning whether the government truly represents their interests.

Border Security

The border is mostly negative for Democrats.

• 38% feel proud of government policies on immigration and border issues, emphasizing the need for humane and equitable policies.
• 47% are frustrated by what they perceive as the government’s failure to manage the border effectively, feeling their concerns are not prioritized.
• 15% express indifference.

Republican Sentiments

General Representation

Republican voters overwhelmingly feel alienated from their government.

• 40% express a sense of being treated as tax subjects, lamenting high taxes and inefficient government programs.
• 35% feel represented by their elected officials, primarily in areas like immigration and national security.
• 25% voice outright distrust in the government, particularly Democratic leadership, accusing them of undermining American values and integrity.

Economic Issues

Economic concerns shape much of the Republican discourse.

• 62% are dissatisfied, viewing themselves as tax subjects in a system that mismanages public funds. They are particularly critical of wasteful or fraudulent government programs.
• 28% feel represented, particularly by policies that promote tax reduction and economic growth.
• 10% have mixed feelings, recognizing both positive steps and inefficiencies in how economic issues are handled.

Gun Control

Republicans are strongly against gun control measures, feeling frustrated with government pushes for more regulations.

• 65% feel underrepresented on gun rights, viewing the government’s actions as hypocritical and ineffective. They call for stronger representation of their Second Amendment rights.
• 25% defend their gun rights even more fervently, viewing any form of gun control as government overreach.
• 10% express neutral or supportive sentiments toward government-led gun control initiatives.

Security Issues

Security concerns also elicit frustration among many Republican voters.

• 45% feel the government fails to prioritize national security, viewing citizens as marginalized by an establishment that does not protect their interests.
• 30% feel their concerns are lost in partisan politics among government elites.
• 25% feel empowered by leadership, believing strong national security policies align with their values and protect American sovereignty.

Border Security

Border security is a top issue for Republican voters who are extremely frustrated with current government policies.

• 60% feel unrepresented by the government, saying lax border policies fail to protect American citizens and prioritize illegal immigrants over citizens.
• 25% are satisfied with their party’s approach to border security, viewing it as a necessary measure to safeguard national interests.
• 15% remain indifferent or uncertain, reflecting divisions within the party on how to handle this issue.