ICE may begin the mass-release of illegal immigrants after the failed border bill, but many Americans are unaware, online trends show. In the wake of the ICE bombshell, online discussion increased only slightly, indicating border policy fallout may be delayed.

• While the border remains a top election issue, early February’s House battle over the widely criticized Border Bill saw peak discussion volume, reaching nearly 30,000 online mentions.
• Trends show widespread dissatisfaction with the Biden Administration’s policies and the worsening situation on the US southern border.
• However, by February 14, discussion was down by two thirds, barely crossing 10,000 mentions in the wake of the failed so-called Border Bill, which would limit illegal border crossings to 5,000 per day.
• The data suggests that Americans are unaware of the implications of continued border security issues as volume decreases, yet negative sentiment remains stable.
• Border sentiment has held within a few percentage points of 45% for the last 30 days and sits at 45% as of February 15.

Competing with wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the DOJ Special Counsel Report questioning President Biden’s fitness for office, border security has dropped to sixth place among trending topics. Yet the undiscussed bombshell—that ICE may be set for the widespread release of detained illegal immigrants—has yet to explode.

Top issues online:

1. Biden – special counsel report
2. Security issues – Ukraine and Israel
3. Ideologies – Wokeism
4. Economic issues – taxes and inflation
5. Palestine – Gaza and Hamas
6. Border security – illegal immigration

The discussion around ICE’s potential mass release is limited, according to MIG data. But there is a clear sentiment among those who are discussing it that illegal immigrants should be deported immediately upon encounter with law enforcement.

What People Are Saying About the Border

Discussion of the border falls predictably within partisan lines, even as democrats’ sentiment on the border has eroded. A clear theme is that huge numbers of illegal entries are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, and more Americans now call for stricter border control and mass deportations.

• Mass Deportations: Many Americans are expressing frustration and anger towards immigration policies they perceive as lax, calling for mass deportations and closing the border.
• Sentiment tracking shows the Border is linked with a host of other critical issues: Americans are worried about crime, terrorism, and the economic burden associated with illegal immigrants.

• There are also increasing accusations of treason against individuals who support open border policies.
• Double standards: trends show dissatisfaction with preferential treatment for illegals, such as bypassing TSA screening at airports and benefits funded by American taxpayers.
• Discussion of ICE is limited, but existing trends show a critical stance toward the agency for releasing illegals into the US—which could happen at scale in the wake of the Biden Administration’s battle with the House.

Blame to Go Around

While discussion has simmered in the wake of the bill’s failure, trends show Americans’ anger over the border persists.

• Republican voters are accusing the Biden administration of lying and gaslighting the public in its claims the administration lacks the authority to close the border.
• The few Democrats who have reacted to the border crisis are blaming Republicans and, more specifically, Donald Trump.
• Some defending the Biden administration claim immigrants contribute to the economy and pay taxes.
• Liberal voters criticized Republican lawmakers for blocking the legislation, which would have permitted 5,000 illegal border crossings each day. But increasingly, democrats have turned on the Biden Administration’s handling of the issue.

Impeached DHS secretary Alejandro Mayorkas also received attention in the wake of his House impeachment inquiry.

• On the day of his impeachment, and the following day, discussion about Mayorkas increased from roughly 500 to 1,500 mentions.
• Approval for Mayorkas actually increased from 45% to 46% on the day of his impeachment.
• This indicates that, despite widespread dissatisfaction with the border, Americans are not fully on board with Republican political tactics.

However, along with negativity toward House Republicans, the public discourse around Mayorkas is under fire, with calls for his ouster.

• Many are arguing Mayorkas was derelict in his duty from day one, and that his impeachment is direct fallout from his handling of the border.
• Some are unsatisfied with Mayorkas as the target for inquiry, suggesting Mayorkas’ and DHS’ problems with the border extend to Biden and the White House.
• Even among some Republicans, there is belief that impeaching Mayorkas will not solve the underlying issue, as the Biden Administration will likely replace Maryorkas with someone equally unfit.
• There are also criticisms that the House Republicans have spent more time trying to impeach Mayorkas than they have spent actually securing the border.
• There is speculation that President Biden will scapegoat Mayorkas’ DHS to shift blame away from his administration.
• The Senate's ability to convict Mayorkas is unclear, with the real possibility a Senate trial would end in acquittal.

Overall, trends indicate Americans are unhappy with officials and lawmakers across the board when it comes to the southern border. Even as the border has lost ground to war and security issues in trending discourse, sentiment shows deep underlying negativity among Americans about the number of illegal immigrants entering the country.

Security issues have obscured the prospect of widespread ICE releases of illegals, the fallout of which remains to be seen.

Public Awareness on the Border

Recent MIG data shows online discussions about border security is significantly increasing, implying rise in awareness and concern among Americans. The general sentiment among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents appears to be that of concern and frustration, albeit for differing reasons.

• In the last 90 days, conversation online about the border has dramatically increased from an average of 2,951 mentions per day in November to 11,088 mentions per day in January.
• In the past week, online discussion about the border has averaged 15,462 mentions per day with February 4 reaching a high of 25,228.

• American sentiment about the border has decreased in the last 90 days. Public sentiment dropped from a consistent 50% in November to 43% today.
• Sentiment on border security has remained below 50% for 84 straight days.

Reactions to the Proposed Border Bill

Discussions about the Lankford border bill appear to be highly polarized and emotionally charged. In general, the discussions also reveal a perceived link between immigration and crime. This suggests that a significant portion of the online discussion on immigration is driven by concerns over safety and rule of law.

Republicans

Sentiment among Republicans seems to be predominantly negative with strong criticism towards the border bill.

• Republicans perceive it as an open borders bill that would allow unchecked immigration and jeopardize national security.
• There are numerous calls for strict immigration control, including the deportation of illegal immigrants and the closure of the border.
• Many accuse the Biden administration of facilitating illegal immigration, which they believe has led to an increase in crime, particularly referencing recent events in New York.
• Republicans also express support for actions against certain Democratic representatives, particularly Ilhan Omar.
• Many advocate for the completion of the southern border wall initiated under Trump's administration.
• Some have even suggested extreme measures like crocodiles in rivers, electrified fences, and drones with bombs.

Democrats

• Democrat voices are less prominent in these border discussions. But there is some criticism of Republicans for spreading what they see as racist and hateful rhetoric.
• Those on the left challenge the narrative of open borders and argue that encounters at the border do not equate to an increase in the U.S. population
• Sentiment suggests they believe Republicans are spreading misinformation about the bill and using the immigration issue to stoke fear and gain political advantage.
• There are accusations of Republicans fear-mongering, particularly toward Trump and Governor Abbott.
• There is also criticism towards the spending on the wall, with some Democrats arguing that the funds could be better used for other domestic issues.
• Democrats continue to be largely critical of the border wall, but are less engaged in discussion about the current crescendo of concern around safety and rule of law.

Independents

• Sentiment among independents is harder to pin down due to the diversity of views within this group.
• There is a noticeable contingent who suggest unorthodox solutions to the border issue, like building a wall on the northern border with Canada.
• Independents are not as vocal as Republicans, but it can be inferred that they are generally concerned about border security and immigration policies.
• They seem to have more nuanced views, but tend to see the need for both border security and humane treatment of immigrants.

Reactions to James Lankford

The online sentiment regarding Senator James Lankford's actions on border security is overwhelmingly negative. Many express dissatisfaction with his border security bill, viewing it as detrimental to the United States.

Approval for Lankford has fluctuated in the last 14 days with a high of 54% and a low of 38%.

Disapproval

• Many argue Lankford’s bill will lead to an influx of 2-3 million illegals per year or 20-30 million in a decade, effectively ending USA borders altogether.
• There’s also dissatisfaction with the bill’s distribution of funding. Many express indignation over possible allocation of more funding to Ukraine and Israel over border security.
• A few voices accuse Lankford of being swayed by bribes or outside interests rather than prioritizing the needs of American citizens.
• Some voters in Oklahoma, Lankford's home state, voice their disappointment, stating that they are closely watching his actions.
• There is a sentiment of betrayal among some Oklahomans who accuse Lankford of siding with Democrats and "selling out" Oklahoma.
• There are numerous calls for him to step down from his position, with some referring to him as a "RINO."
• There's a sentiment of betrayal and a threat of political repercussions with some users threatening to primary him in upcoming elections.
• Across party lines, there seems to be a perceived lack of focus on domestic issues.
• Overall, sentiments reflect a demand for markedly tighter border security measures, as well as a broad disapproval of the bill's provisions.

Approval

• Despite the overall negative sentiment, there are a few voices that view aid to Ukraine as beneficial to the US economy and thus support Lankford's bill.
• Arguments that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented demand for US arms sales, providing a significant boost to the American economy.
• There are a few voices of support for Lankford, arguing that he is focused on results rather than political posturing.
• However, these voices appear to be in the minority.

Reactions to Alejandro Mayorkas

Online sentiments toward Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas appear to be largely negative, with a strong focus on his alleged failure to handle the issues at the border effectively.

• Many commenters accuse Mayorkas of lying about his efforts to address what they perceive as an "invasion" at the border.
• People believe he has not taken action to curb the surge of illegal border crossings. Some even suggest that he's aiding and abetting the situation.
• This sentiment is mostly held by those who believe that Mayorkas and President Biden's border policies have exacerbated the crisis at the southern border.

Approval for Mayorkas has fluctuated in the last 14 days with a high of 48% and a low of 44%.

Division on a Mayorkas Impeachment

While talk about the border situation is generally negative, there seems to be more division about a possible Mayorkas impeachment.

Approval

• There is a strong call from many for his impeachment, with some arguing that his handling of the US-Mexico border crisis is a breach of public trust.
• Many accuse him of lying to the American people and Congress and failing to enforce border security laws.
• There is a belief that Mayorkas has not protected the homeland effectively and should be held accountable for his actions.
• Many say Mayorkas and Biden are ignoring laws they should be enforcing and do have power to act on this issue.
• Supporters insist that it is the duty of Congress members to vote in favor of his impeachment. They also accuse him of being a "Constitution hater."

Disapproval

• On the other hand, there are many who view the potential impeachment as a partisan ploy by House Republicans.
• Arguments that the impeachment is not about Mayorkas's job performance but an attempt to make the border issue a political talking point against the Biden administration.
• Dissenters argue that the impeachment is a political stunt, a "hit job," and an abuse of the process.
• There are some voices who say the impeachment will not pass the House vote and question the timing of the impeachment.
• Some argue that Mayorkas does not have the authority to set the US immigration agenda and that this responsibility lies with Congress.

National Conversation About the Border

The online discussions about the US border are rife with emotion and conflicting opinions. An underlying theme in these discussions is the perceived failure of both the federal government and the GOP to protect Americans.

Greg Abbott

A key figure in these discussions is Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who is both lauded and criticized for his stance on border control.

• Abbott‘s statement against the Supreme Court's ruling allowing razor wire to be removed from the southern border has sparked fervent responses.
• Supporters applaud his assertion of Texas's rights against what they perceive as a federal government overreach.
• They view the situation at the southern border as an "invasion," expressing fears about illegal immigration and Texas.
• Critics accuse him of fearmongering and of being absent during what he himself has labeled a crisis.

Donald Trump

Another key figure in the national conversation is Donald Trump.

• Many support Trump‘s wall as a means to control immigration, while others see it as an ineffective and divisive measure.
• Critics point out that the wall not only failed to solve the immigration issue but also inadvertently created easy access points for smugglers.
• They further argue that the situation at the border could have been prevented had Trump been competent in his initial attempts to build the wall.

Farmers

American farmers are also highlighted in the discussion, with some Americans praising them for supporting Texas in its efforts to stem the perceived "invasion" at the southern border.

Ilhan Omar

Multiple people express strong negative sentiments towards Representative Ilhan Omar, often linking her to what they perceive as an open-border policy.

• Commentors believe Omar‘s stance threatens national security.
• There are frequent calls for her to be removed from Congress and deported.
• Many are pointing to a perceived lack of allegiance to the US.
• A significant group of Americans seem to identify Omar as a key figure negatively affecting the border situation.

Democrats Overall

There's also a significant, recurring narrative that accuses Democrats of wanting open borders to score political points.

• Some suggest that this is a strategy to attract future voters from among illegal immigrants.
• Others accuse Republicans of creating fear and anger around the issue for their political gain.
• The current administration is frequently criticized for its perceived attempts to allow open borders and endanger the country.

Support for Key Figures Involved in Border Issues

James Lankford

There is no conversation specifically mentioning Sen. Lankford.

• In the last 7 days, Lankford’s average approval was 50%. Today it sits at 49%.

  

Joe Biden

• Many people blame Biden for the influx of illegal immigrants.
• There is criticism of the so-called "Biden-McConnell open borders amnesty bill," which some users feel would only increase illegal immigration.
• Biden’s 7-day average national approval rating was 47%. Today it’s 44%.
• His average approval in swing states over the last 7 days was 42%. Today it’s 42%.

Alejandro Mayorkas

• Some users believe Mayorkas is corrupt and accuse him of breaking the law.
• Calls for his impeachment, claiming he and Biden have committed treason by not fulfilling their oaths of office and endangering American citizens.
• In the last 7 days, Mayorkas’s average approval rating was 45%, and 43% today.

  

Greg Abbott

• There is praise for his efforts to protect the Texas border and his attempts to rally support from other states to address the situation.
• Governor Abbott is seen as a strong leader by many.
• There is some criticism with some attributing the state's immigration issues to his governance.
• Discussion about Abbott's controversial decision to send busloads of immigrants to other states. Some say it’s an attempt to avoid addressing the root of the problem.
• In the last 7 days, Abbott’s average approval rating was 47%. Today it sits at 47%.

Ukraine Approval Remains low as overwhelming majority of Americans Focus Instead on Border Security and Immigration Crisis

Recent analysis from the Media Intelligence Group (MIG) offers a comprehensive look into how both American engagement and support for Ukraine remains low, in serious contrast from high levels seen at the start of the Ukraine conflict. These insights reveal that despite ongoing debates in Congress about further aid for Ukraine, American opinion remains unchanged and instead focused on America First principals.

Shifting Focus: MIG's data indicates that online engagement surrounding Global Affairs is viewed increasingly with an America First lens.

• Engagement towards Ukraine is dwarfed by discussions about Border Security or more longstanding priorities like the US-Israeli alliance.
  • MIG found that over the last 30 days, Ukraine averages 1,106 online daily mentions, with a total of 33,185 mentions of Ukraine.
    
  • In contrast, discussions about Border Security and the Migrant Crisis averaged 8,836 daily online mentions, totaling 265,095 online mentions in the last 30 days.
    
  • Similarly, online conversations about Israel and Palestine are even more prominent, with a daily average of 9,072 online mentions and a total of 278,200 online mentions in the last 30 days.

Ukraine Hawks fail to sway Americans:

• Further analysis from the MIG reveals American approval of Ukraine remains consistently below 45%, contrasting sharply with the high levels of backing seen at the start of the conflict.
  
• In late 2023, Gallup found that American support for Ukraine had dropped sharply since the onset of Russia’s invasion.
  
• When Russia forces had first breached Ukrainian defenses, American support for Ukraine stood at 66%. This dropped sharply in Gallup’s subsequent poll in October 2023, when 41% of respondents stated they believed the United States was doing too much for Ukraine.
  
• MIG’s latest numbers from the last 30 days find support for Ukraine hasn’t budged. Despite many Ukraine Hawks in Congress making the case for further aid to Kiev, MIG finds Ukraine’s average approval stuck at 41%.
  
• Worse, Ukraine’s approval reached 44% just three times in the last 30 days, while it fell below 40% for 7 days total.

America First, Here to Stay:

• MIG's data underscores a growing shift in America’s focus in prioritizing an America First global perspective, as online discussions about Ukraine sink into further irrelevancy and are eclipsed by Border Security and Immigration debates.
  
• Notably, these findings are supported by a recent Harvard Harris poll, which found Immigration as the top policy concern amongst Americans, well ahead of foreign policy but even surpassing inflation and the economy.
  
• Despite unending frustrations with a Congress many believe is disconnected from the rest of America, recent comments from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell may reveal Americans are forcing D.C. to listen. This week, McConnell told Senate colleagues “When we started this, the border united us and Ukraine divided us” but that “The politics on this have changed.”

Discussions online about the recent SCOTUS ruling that Texas must not use razor wire at the border are highly charged and divided. The majority of sentiments expressed are in favor of border control measures. Many express frustration towards the Republican party's actions regarding immigration policy and border control.

• Between 6,000 and 14,000 people have been talking about border and immigration issues daily in the last week.
• Public sentiment towards border issues in the last 7 days averaged 45%.

What Texans are Saying About the Border

• Texans show strong support for the enforcement of border control measures.
• Many Texans are outspoken about their belief in the need for a physical barrier, such as a wall, to deter illegal border crossings.
• There is great support for the actions of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and criticism of the Biden administration's immigration policies.
• A majority of Texans are critical of SCOTUS' ruling to remove the razor wire.
• Abbott supporters argue that the state's actions are necessary to ensure security and protect against threats such as drug cartels and human trafficking.
• Some also contend that federal interference in the state's efforts to control the border is unwarranted.
• A recurring sentiment is that voters support legal immigration, but not illegal immigration.
• Many commenters express support for Texas' stance on immigration.
• Texans applaud Abbott's actions, such as deporting over 100,000 undocumented immigrants, and seem to favor strict border control measures.
• Voters are critical of supposed conservative leaders whom they perceive as not adhering strictly to conservative principles, including Justice Barrett.
• There is a sense of dissatisfaction with the current Republican party in Texas, with calls for more conservative leadership and criticism of perceived liberal agendas.
• Many express readiness to assist in defending the border, criticizing the federal government.
• A minority contingent of people condemn the use of razor wire as inhumane and dangerous.

Overall, the majority of the discussions reveal a split within the Republican party in Texas between those who align more with MAGA and more moderate or 'establishment' Republicans.

Approval for Texas Leaders

• In the days following the SCOTUS ruling allowing razor wire to be removed from the Texas border, Greg Abbott’s approval increased from 45% a week ago to 51% today.
• Ken Paxton’s approval increased from 47% a week ago to 50% today.

Reactions to Biden Administration Policy

• Public sentiment towards the Biden administration's immigration policies is overwhelmingly negative.
• There is a stark contrast between the collective sentiment towards the federal government's immigration policies and the state of Texas' stance on the issue.
• There is a general sentiment that Biden is prioritizing illegal immigrants over US citizens.
• Many people believe the Biden administration's policies are ineffective and have led to an increase in illegal border crossings.
• The sentiment is that Biden is not taking the necessary steps to secure the southern border and is contributing to an "invasion" at the southern border.
• Most commenters express strong opposition to what they perceive as an "open border" policy, and are advocating for stricter border control measures.
• Some progressive voices are present in the discussions, expressing support for a more diverse and progressive platform. However, these voices are in the minority.

Solutions the People Want

• Some propose the creation of a human wall or using the homeless population as a deterrent.
• Others suggest the construction of an electric fence.
• Many express support for more stringent measures, such as the use of razor wire at the border.
• There is also a call for state governors to bolster their State Guards in response to perceived federal government inaction.
• Some have expressed a desire for mass deportations, while others argue that such an approach would be unrealistic or result in conflict.
• Voters call for politicians who support open borders to step forward, suggesting a desire for transparency and accountability.
• There are repeated calls for the governor to declare the situation an "invasion," which could trigger legal authority for Texas to protect its own border.

In conclusion, the SCOTUS ruling and the broader issue of border control is a contentious topic amongst Texans and Americans in general. Overall sentiment leans towards a more conservative approach to immigration, with criticism directed at both state and federal officials for perceived inaction or leniency.

There is a clear divide within the Republican party in Texas, and a desire for more conservative leadership. Despite this, there is also a minority progressive voice advocating for more inclusion and border leniency.