Joe Biden's call to the media on December 23, 2023, to "start reporting it the right way", drove increased media coverage, MIG reports show. However, new White House messaging in the press has failed to resonate across the electorate. An increase in reporting from traditional media precipitated an increase in online discussion; however, not all media consumers are not buying White House job-creation or increased-GDP narratives compared with their experience. MIG data currently indicates overall dissatisfaction with the economy, with voters focusing on high taxes (specifically property taxes), younger professionals being unable to save and invest, and a general dissatisfaction with government spending decisions.

Democrats, however, were more likely to side with Biden, indicating a partisan split over the issue.

Democrats

• Perceive the media's reporting on the economy as overly negative or insufficiently informative.
• Argue that the emphasis on inflation and supply chain issues overshadows the accomplishments of the Biden administration, such as labor market gains since the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out employment growth during the Trump administration, and GDP growth.
• Strong Economy/Labor Markets:

• Democrats are more likely to believe narratives about labor and GDP growth signaling a strong economy, citing declining unemployment rates and robust job growth.

Republicans

• Largely skeptical of Biden's economic policies and the overall state of the economy
• View Biden's direct address to the press as an attempt to control economic narratives and downplay inflation and supply chain disruptions.
• Argue that the media should hold the administration accountable rather than drive narratives with White House talking points.
• Strong Economy/Labor Markets:

• Tend to disbelieve labor market and GDP narratives, pointing to inflation and supply chain disruptions, and arguing job growth under the Biden Administration has simply been a recovery of jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Independents

• Often lean towards pragmatism over partisanship and show mixed responses.
• Some echo Democrats' views, others align more with Republicans or express broader skepticism towards media narratives.
• Strong Economy/Labor Markets:

• Independent voters appear split, with their beliefs indexing to their personal economic experiences and media they consume.

Messaging Analysis

Top Messages Increasing Biden’s Support:

• Highlighting job growth
• Emphasizing rebounding GDP
• Pointing out stock market performance
• Underscoring infrastructure investments
• Promoting the president’s Build Back Better plan
• Increased support for middle class and low-income families

Top Messages Decreasing Biden’s Support:

• Emphasizing inflation
• Highlighting supply chain disruptions
  
• Focusing on labor shortages
• Discussing increased government spending
• Criticizing his handling of the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic
• Perceived overspending
• Potential tax increases

Biden's call for the media to "report it the right way" and the press lining up to drive White House talking points further underscores the deep partisan divide in the perception of the president’s economic policies and voters’ sifting of their own direct experience. The influence of media narratives on these perceptions is significant, highlighting the need for balanced and accurate reporting. At the end of the day, voters will have to weigh personal economic outcomes against partisan narratives and will balance GDP and stock market growth against the quality of life they enjoy.

Economic Issues

The current dominant theme emerging from the data is concern over taxes and the quality-of-life Americans enjoy for their hard-earned dollars. Discussion especially centers around property taxes and their impact on both individuals and businesses. Sentiment analysis shows frustration, particularly in higher-tax states like New York, Illinois, and California. This dissatisfaction is driving a shifting population and investment in states with lower tax rates, referred to as "winner" states, many in the Sun Belt, such as Tennessee, Texas, and Florida.

Age and stage of life appears to influence attitudes towards taxes. Younger respondents, particularly those just starting out in their careers, express concern about their ability to save and invest due to high tax rates. Older respondents, particularly those who are property owners, express dissatisfaction with high property taxes.

Regionally, the data shows a clear divide. People in states with high taxes are expressing greater dissatisfaction and are considering migrating to states with lower taxes. The trend is particularly pronounced in New York, where people express concerns about crime, high cost of living, and perceived political targeting of investors, in addition to high taxes.

Politically, there seems to be a divide along party lines. Republicans express satisfaction with tax cuts or rebates in their regions, while Democrats criticize spending decisions, such as National Guard deployments to the southern border, which they believe could be better invested in solving tax and insurance issues. Still, immigration may yet come to bear on the economy in squeezing rent and housing inventory. Housing inventory remains exceedingly tight and prices high, keeping younger buyers from home ownership.  

Analysis shows general dissatisfaction with high taxes across different demographic groups, with more Americans examining their life opportunities and outcomes in the face of their tax burden. Dissatisfaction is reflected in shifting investment trends and migration patterns, which could have significant long-term impacts on regional economies and elections.

The recent $355 million fraud ruling against former President Donald Trump in New York City is driving new questions about the U.S. justice system being weaponized against political opponents. Democrat Judge Arthur Engoron’s ruling in a case filed by New York’s democratic Attorney General Letitia James, has sparked controversy, deepening existing divisions between Republicans and Democrats, online trend analysis and sentiment tracking shows.

The controversy is a lightning rod, with Republicans seeing the unprecedented $355 million fine as a biased attack on a political challenger during an election year.

A Deutsche Bank executive testified in Trump’s defense against the charges, saying the bank, and Trump, followed the bank’s rules in valuing assets at the center of the fraud trial. Democrats are framing the trial as holding Trump accountable for his financial dealings, saying no one is above the law. Meanwhile, the former president leads Biden in both national and key swing state polls. The repercussions of the ruling are rippling through media and policy debates, showing deeply entrenched partisan sentiments, with some wondering if courts are now a tool for punishing political opponents. 

Republican Response

Republicans are criticizing the NYC fraud ruling against Trump as an extension of power by democrats. The ruling has also underscored Republicans’ commitment to the former president. Some Republicans have drawn comparisons between Trump's alleged financial misdeeds and the corruption scandals plaguing the White House. Their claims have initiated a broader conversation about political accountability and the rule of law and what it means to wield power in America.

Republicans are concerned the Biden White House is corrupt, perceiving that government institutions, including the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the FBI, have been weaponized against political rivals. Biden's alleged involvement in the theft of classified documents during his tenure as a senator and vice president has added to the fire. Some Republicans have gone so far as to draw parallels to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arresting rivals, framing the White House within a broader narrative of political persecution.

Trends show Republicans see the fraud ruling against Trump as indicative of a larger pattern of bias and corruption, suggesting a political agenda behind the legal proceedings. In scrutinizing the legal process, they have been able to underscore their belief in the need for fairness and impartiality. Republicans have maintained focus on the integrity of the legal proceedings in discourse.

Emphasizing Trump's accomplishments, particularly in areas like border security and economic stability, Republicans have also been aiming to highlight Trump’s accomplishments against the Biden administration's handling of key issues, including persistent inflation, crime, open borders, and the national debt having gone parabolic. Critics of the White House have been able to set Trump’s accomplishments and the legal attacks they say are political persecution by democrats against the backdrop of White House policy failures.

Democrat Response

On the Democratic side, the NYC fraud ruling against Trump is wielded as a weapon to disqualify the former president. Democrats, in turn, see media coverage of the Biden administration missing the White House’s student loan forgiveness efforts and success in maintaining its border policy. They insinuate a lack of accountability or consequences for Trump, the fraud trial being one of the former president’s many legal cases. They also emphasize potential misuse of classified documents and even allege that Trump may have sold such documents to foreign leaders.

Democrats are responding in kind to the recent DOJ report claiming Biden was unfit to stand trial with concerns about Trump's potential misuse of classified information to pay legal fees and questioning the former president’s mental capacity.

They also question the legitimacy of Republican criticisms, especially regarding Biden's handling of the deficit, contrasting it with claims about Trump's tax cuts benefiting billionaires and contributing to the growing deficit. 

Economic Fallout

Beyond the political realm, the ruling against Trump may cause economic havoc, particularly in New York’s business and investment climate landscape. Some see fallout on the horizon: will the targeting of political adversaries accelerate an exodus of investors from New York? Analysts are wary the prospect of political bias in legal proceedings may discourage businesses from continued investment in states with high taxes, such as New York, Illinois, and California

Some Republicans express apprehension about the broader economic implications, suggesting that the ruling could have negative consequences for state budgets, public services, and infrastructure. If businesses and investors feel vulnerable to political lawfare, they may choose to relocate or reduce their activities, leading to a decrease in tax revenues for the affected states.

On the other hand, Democrats are countering these claims by emphasizing the moral implications of the ruling. They argue that the economic concerns raised by Republicans are a diversion from Trump's financial dealings. Democrats contend that holding individuals accountable for financial misconduct is crucial for ensuring a fair and just economic system.

Conclusion

The NYC fraud ruling against Trump has become a lightning rod for political division, with Republicans and Democrats interpreting the decision along partisan lines. The controversy has exposed live questions as to whether the rule of law is on the line, and whether the justice system is a tool to punish political adversaries. The fallout contributes to a widening gap between the two political camps. As debate unfolds, the impact of this ruling on the political landscape and the 2024 election remains to be seen. Even so, the controversy has exposed massive fissures in perception of American courts as upholding equality before the law.

Recent online discussions reflect a general dissatisfaction and frustration with the current economic situation, particularly around rising prices. There is a clear demand for more effective communication from the government and corporations about measures to manage inflation and stabilize prices. The online discussions provide a rich insight into the public sentiment and concerns regarding the current economic situation, particularly focusing on inflation and price changes. A few key themes emerge from these discussions:

Frustration over Rising Prices

Many online users express dissatisfaction with the continued increase in the prices of goods and services, with specific mention of gas prices and the subsequent impact on other sectors such as fast food and retail.

Lack of Trust in Corporations

There is significant sentiment expressing distrust towards corporations like Walmart and McDonald's, with users questioning why prices have not dropped now that gas prices have been lower for over a year.

Concern Over Real Estate Market

Concerns over the stability of the real estate market, particularly in high-value areas, are evident. Users are worried about the potential impact of environmental factors (like climate change) on property values and safety.

Uncertainty and Anxiety

There is a general sense of uncertainty and anxiety about the future, particularly concerning economic stability and the potential for increased inflation.

Skepticism Towards Biden and Media

There is skepticism towards the claims made by Biden and the media regarding the state of inflation. Users are eager for tangible evidence of improvement.

Messaging

Increasing Sentiment on Inflation Getting Better:

1. Tangible evidence of price decreases, especially in essential goods and services.
2. Positive news about economic recovery and job growth.
3. Clear communication from the government about measures taken to control inflation.

Decreasing Sentiment on Inflation Getting Better:

1. Continued increase in prices of goods and services.
2. Negative news about the economy or job market.
3. Lack of clear communication or perceived inaction from the government on inflation.

Talking About - Economic Issues & Inflation

Sentiment - Economic Issues & Inflation

American voters have an unhappy view about the job market and general state of the economy. Conversations online boil down to two indicators:

1. Distrust in the economic reporting
2. How the government spends money

Americans remain skeptical about the job reports, with claims that half of the jobs are "fake" and the other half being government jobs. They also express concern about the lack of new jobs for native-born Americans since 2018. This sentiment could be indicative of wider concerns about unemployment, underemployment, and the overall health of the job market.

Online conversations support this a pattern of the top discussions:

1. Concerns about job security and employment prospects, especially for native-born Americans
2. Doubts about the accuracy and reliability of government-provided statistics
3. Belief in the recovery and stabilization of the labor market
4. General interest in economic matters, with specific focus on employment rates and the health of the job market
5. The broader context of political discourse, with jobs and the economy being key issues in political campaigns and policy-making

Bipartisan Disapproval

Democrats' comments seem to focus more on dissatisfaction with the current tax system, advocating for reform and suggesting that wealthy individuals and large corporations are not paying their fair share. They also express concerns about how tax money is being spent, particularly with regard to funding wars.

Republicans' comments reveal a similar dissatisfaction with the tax system, but from a different angle. They mention the burden of taxes on the middle class and business owners, and they express frustration with how tax money is spent. They also seem to be against high taxes and are more likely to suggest tax cuts or reforms that reduce taxes.

Independents' comments are a mix of the above. They express frustration with the complexity of the tax system, the perceived unfairness of the distribution of tax burdens, and the misuse of tax money. They also discuss the impact of taxes on various groups, including the homeless and the self-employed. Some Independents seem open to both tax hikes for the wealthy and tax cuts for middle-income earners and businesses.

Media Narrative Support

Online conversations appear to be sustained by assistance from traditional approaches; online discussions peaked on Jan 10, Jan 18, Jan 25, Feb.

• Jan 10: several articles about Biden adding 14 million jobs
• Jan 18: Biden tweets about adding 14 million jobs
• Jan 25: several articles and Nancy Pelosi tweet about adding 14 million jobs
• Feb 1: jobs report bolstered by traditional media

Talking About - Jobs, Economic Issues (Joe Biden)

Approval - Jobs, Economic Issues (Joe Biden)

Plummeting Approval for Newsom’s Crime Policies

Newsom is frequently cast in public discussion as being out of touch and ineffective in his handling of California’s crime issue. Discussion online spiked as a result of a video clip where Newsom says he was blamed for a shoplifting incident to his face. People find his story either ironic or fitting. Californians say Newsom’s story shows a failure to address crime and shoplifting effectively.

• On the topic of “crime,” Gavin Newsom’s approval score dropped to a 7-day low of 27%.
• His approval bounced back to 44% on the day of his comments as discussion volume surged.
• Following his shoplifting comments, discussion volume related to crime and Newsom doubled.

• Newsom’s support overall, including the topic of “crime,” reached a 7-day low of 40%, including the day his shoplifting comments became public.

What People Are Saying

Online discussions show that people are expressing strong negative sentiment towards Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, regarding the state's crime situation, especially in relation to shoplifting.

• People argue that Newsom's approach to handling crime in California is inefficient and ineffective.
• Californians express frustration and disappointment, citing an increase in taxes, high homelessness, rampant drug use, and uncontrolled crime rates as key issues.
• Many people feel these problems are direct results of Newsom's leadership and policies.
• There is a deep dissatisfaction with increasing instances of shoplifting and the overall crime rate in California.
• There's a sentiment that excessive amounts of tax money are not being used effectively, with some alleging corruption and misuse of funds.
• Many are blaming Newsom for creating an environment that is seen as favoring criminals.

Larger Contributing Issues

Many Californians see the crime increase as one problem among many other larger issues. Overall, the online sentiment towards Gavin Newsom in relation to crime in California is highly critical.

• There are suggestions that Newsom's policies are driving people out of California
• People accuse Newsom of being detached from reality and failing to acknowledge the impact of his policies on small businesses.
• They also argue that insurance companies are pulling out of California due to the rise in crime.
• Californians express a desire for stronger law enforcement, stricter policies towards criminals, and more effective solutions for homelessness and drug addiction.
• There is a belief that economic decline and problems like a failing school system and increased cost of living are causing people to leave California.
• A frequently expressed belief is that California has become excessively liberal under Newsom's leadership, with some labeling it as “communist.”
• Positive sentiments are few and far between, suggesting Newsom is facing significant public backlash over his policies.

Crime and the Border

A primary concern Californians discuss about the border is Newsom's perceived support for “open borders,” which they believe has led to an influx of illegal immigrants in the state. Many people attribute the high crime rates in California to Newsom's alleged failure to effectively control the state borders.

• People express anger and frustration towards Newsom, with some labeling him as a “dangerous person” and a “traitor” to California.
• They accuse him of condoning illegal immigration and even facilitating criminal activities, such as human trafficking and drug trafficking.
• There is also widespread belief that Newsom's border policies have resulted in a surge of crime in the state.
• Critics believe that illegal immigrants contribute to the high crime rates in the state, with some even suggesting that Newsom's administration has turned California into a “criminal haven.”
• Many say Newsom’s neglect of important issues in favor of supporting illegal immigrants is a testament to his inability to effectively govern the state.

Online discussions about union support for Donald Trump and union leadership support for Joe Biden reveal a spectrum of opinions. Some posts accuse UAW union bosses of not representing their members and claim that Biden has worked against the interests of auto workers. These posts often argue that the union leadership has sided with the Biden administration, which they believe has harmed working-class Americans.

American workers seem divided in their support for Trump's and Biden's policies, with some expressing strong support for Trump's policies and others strongly supporting Biden's policies. However, the general sentiment towards the Biden administration's union policies seems negative, with many comments calling for his impeachment.

Raises Trump's Support:

1. Hiring union workers.
2. Strong stance on border issues.
3. Support from the Republican party.
4. Perceived financial acumen due to billionaire status.
5. Opposition to mass migration.

Lowers Trump's Support:

1. Perceived disregard for the working man.
2. Alleged history of not paying workers.
3. Perceived prioritization of billionaires over workers.
4. Accusations of using border issues for campaign reasons.
5. Negative sentiment from union leadership.

Union Approval - Trump vs Biden

Raises Biden's Support:

1. Policies believed to create jobs.
2. Enforcing strong labor standards.
3. Proposals for clean energy.
4. Perceived willingness to negotiate on issues like border control.
5. Support from union members.

Lowers Biden's Support:

1. Accusations of ignoring border crisis.
2. Perceived lack of strong stance on border issues.
3. Lack of significant discourse on his union policies.
4. Perceived partisan politics.
5. Absence of notable union endorsements.

Wages and Salaries

Under Trump's Administration

• Some dissatisfaction with what they perceived as globalist control over union leadership
• Criticism of UAW President's negative comments about Trump, with suggestions that this reflected a broader trend of union leadership being out of touch with their members' interests
• Supporters of Trump's policies argued that his promises of Rust Belt revitalization were being undermined by union leaders aligned with the Democratic Party.

Under Biden’s Administration

• Substantial support for his policies, particularly those perceived as promoting social and racial justice.
• These supporters often used the term "woke" in a positive context, arguing that being aware of and actively attentive to important facts and issues, especially issues of racial and social justice, was a crucial part of supporting Biden's policies.
• Also criticism of Biden's policies, arguing that a focus on "woke" politics was alienating certain sections of society and that this could harm support for unions
• Some concerns that Biden's policies were putting American citizens at risk, particularly in relation to immigration.

Union Trends

Union membership rate of public-sector workers (32.5%) continued to be more than five times higher than the rate of private-sector workers (6%).

The highest unionization rates were among workers in education, training, and library occupations (32.7%) and protective service occupations (31.9%).

Percentage of Workforce Union Membership Over Time

(Bureau of Labor Statistics)

With the holiday shopping season approaching, consumers appear conflicted about risking their usual shopping plans amid rising crime rates nationwide.  

What the Data Says 

Media Intelligence Group reports that public discussions reveal an emerging apprehension and caution regarding shopping dangers. 

• Reports of increased theft and organized retail crime in many major cities have been generating headlines all year.  
• Various reports also revealed that retailers lost more than $112 billion in 2022 due to crime.  
• Major brands like Target, Walmart, Nordstrom, Macy's, and others have closed store locations because of increasing theft. 

Now, the danger of in-store criminal activity has people expressing their hesitation to shop during what has traditionally been the heaviest shopping season of the year.  

• Some people argue that positive economic indicators like 2.0% and 2.1% GDP growth in Q1 and Q1 of 2023 point to a hospitable environment for spending.  
• However, concerns also persist about inflation's toll on families’ spending power, making purchases challenging. 

What Americans are Saying 

The MIG report suggests caution rather than fear is the prevailing mood among Americans.  

• Shoppers seem alert to potential dangers but not fully deterred.  
• Many do say they’ll think twice before venturing out or spend less time browsing in stores. 
• Meanwhile corporations seem quiet in the public forum but are likely keeping a close eye on shrinking revenues. 
• People are hesitant due to increased risks of theft and organized retail crime. 
• Some express fear about potential mass shootings in places like malls and shopping centers. 
• And most Americans feel uncertain about the overall economy affecting their spending power. 

Media Denial 

At the same time, many media outlets push back on the narrative that retail crime is significantly increasing nationwide based on available data.  

• Many headlines suggest that retailers may be overstating or sensationalizing the issue.  
• Some journalists express a desire for “more objective” data collection on retail crime trends before concluding there is a major national surge occurring. 
• Despite media pushback, these pressures may cause retailers to see decreased profits through the end of 2023. 

A recent Media Intelligence Group (MIG) report on public sentiment regarding the US economy reveals a nation split along partisan lines. Supporters praise the administration for allegedly reducing unemployment and achieving GDP growth. But critics blame Biden for rising inflation and interest rates that threaten the middle class.

One sentiment that crosses the political divide is that many people feel their financial situations are becoming strained in the current economy. The report highlights Americans worries about the impact of continuously climbing interest rates on mortgages and car loans.

Today auto loan defaults are surging, and mortgage rates hover around 7.5%. Households are struggling with the higher threshold for borrowing. Despite the administration touting positive economic indicators like a 4.9% GDP growth in Q3 2022, many of the voting population still express fear and uncertainty. MIG data shows that Joe Biden's approval rating dropped to a concerning 35% during the second week of October.

Biden critics point to inflation reducing real incomes and an accumulating public debt burden as indicators of economic mismanagement. But Biden supporters credit policies like the Inflation Reduction Act for spurring investment and job creation. In general, sentiment appears aligned with political affiliations but the overall sentiment towards the economy in 2023 is negative.