Recent online discussions reflect a general dissatisfaction and frustration with the current economic situation, particularly around rising prices. There is a clear demand for more effective communication from the government and corporations about measures to manage inflation and stabilize prices. The online discussions provide a rich insight into the public sentiment and concerns regarding the current economic situation, particularly focusing on inflation and price changes. A few key themes emerge from these discussions:
Frustration over Rising Prices
Many online users express dissatisfaction with the continued increase in the prices of goods and services, with specific mention of gas prices and the subsequent impact on other sectors such as fast food and retail.
Lack of Trust in Corporations
There is significant sentiment expressing distrust towards corporations like Walmart and McDonald's, with users questioning why prices have not dropped now that gas prices have been lower for over a year.
Concern Over Real Estate Market
Concerns over the stability of the real estate market, particularly in high-value areas, are evident. Users are worried about the potential impact of environmental factors (like climate change) on property values and safety.
Uncertainty and Anxiety
There is a general sense of uncertainty and anxiety about the future, particularly concerning economic stability and the potential for increased inflation.
Skepticism Towards Biden and Media
There is skepticism towards the claims made by Biden and the media regarding the state of inflation. Users are eager for tangible evidence of improvement.
Messaging
Increasing Sentiment on Inflation Getting Better:
Tangible evidence of price decreases, especially in essential goods and services.
Positive news about economic recovery and job growth.
Clear communication from the government about measures taken to control inflation.
Decreasing Sentiment on Inflation Getting Better:
Continued increase in prices of goods and services.
Negative news about the economy or job market.
Lack of clear communication or perceived inaction from the government on inflation.
Online discussions regarding Ukraine saw an uptick in volume earlier in early February due to the Ukraine spending bill in the Senate. The key themes dominating conversations about Ukraine primarily revolve around a $95 billion aid package designed to support Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The discussions are focused on the advancement of this bill in the U.S. Senate and the political dynamics surrounding it. A few themes from online discussions are:
U.S. Foreign Aid Package
Many discussions are centered around the U.S. Senate's decision to move forward with this substantial aid package. Some users view this as a positive development, highlighting that 18 Republicans backed the legislation despite opposition from former President Trump. This topic increases positive sentiment towards Ukraine as it portrays the country as a beneficiary of bipartisan support in the U.S. Senate.
Political Divisions
The aid package has also stirred debates on political lines. Some Republicans, including Trump, are against the bill, while a significant number of Republicans and Democrats support it. This has led to discussions about intra-party divisions, particularly within the Republican Party. Depending on political leanings, this topic either increases or decreases sentiment towards Ukraine.
International Relations
There are robust discussions around the geopolitical implications of the aid package, especially in relation to Ukraine's position in global politics. Positive sentiments are associated with the perception that the aid package will reinforce Ukraine's diplomatic position and security.
Opposition to Aid
A notable portion of the discussion is from individuals expressing opposition to the aid package. Some argue that the funds could be better used domestically, while others express anti-war sentiments, suggesting the money will be used to fund conflict. This topic tends to decrease sentiment towards Ukraine, as it associates the country with controversial U.S. foreign aid policies.
Role of Trump: Former President Trump's opposition to the aid package is a recurring theme in the discussions. Some users support Trump's stance, while others criticize it. This topic tends to polarize sentiments towards Ukraine along partisan lines.
Talking About - Ukraine
Sentiment - Ukraine
Foreign, or Domestic?
Geopolitical Conflicts
A significant portion of the conversation revolves around expressing concern over Russia's perceived aggression. This includes discussions about the potential for World War III if Russia is encouraged to attack NATO allies, as well as the need to support Ukraine against such aggression.
International Relations
Another key theme is the role of the United States and other countries in assisting Ukraine. This includes debates about the proposed $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, with some voicing support for the aid and others criticizing it.
Domestic Politics
Discussions also touch on the impact of domestic US politics on Ukraine, with comments on senators voting against the aid package and former President Trump's stance towards Russia and Ukraine.
Impact to Support - Ukraine
Sentiment towards Ukraine varies across political affiliations. Republicans tend to express more skepticism towards aid packages and are more likely to support stronger action against Russia. Democrats, on the other hand, are generally more supportive of providing aid and diplomatic solutions to the conflict. Independents show a range of views, reflecting their diverse political beliefs.
Increased sentiment towards Ukraine, both positive and negative, can be triggered by key events such as geopolitical conflicts, proposed aid packages, and statements by political figures. For example, the rescue of Israeli hostages in Gaza sparked discussions about international relations and the role of different countries in resolving conflicts. In contrast, the proposed aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan has fueled debates and possibly negative sentiment about foreign aid and its implications for domestic politics and international relations.
RFK Jr. has been a topic of discussion online following his Super Bowl ad. Unsurprisingly, feedback is mixed with some praising his honesty, transparency, and dedication to fighting government corruption. However, the ad also caused some controversy which led to Kennedy apologizing on Twitter.
Overall, the $7 million ad doesn’t seem to have markedly changed voter perception of the Independent candidate.
Discussion volume regarding RFK Jr. increased from around 350 mentions the day before, to nearly 800 following the Super Bowl ad.
Approval for RFK Jr. ticked down by about 1% both nationally and in swing states.
His approval on February 9 was slightly higher in swing states at 51% versus 50% nationally.
On February 11, his approval in swing states dipped slightly below his overall sentiment at 49.4% compared to 49.7% nationally.
Reactions and RFK Jr.’s Apology
Following the ad, there was expressed concern about his influence due to his media experience and recognizable name.
Negativity Toward the Ad
A columnist, David Colborne, characterized RFK Jr. as a "dangerous and paranoid crank," generating agreement and discussion.
Some voiced their disapproval, calling for the ad to be taken down and requiring an apology.
Others expressed political disagreement, stating they would not support RFK Jr., despite appreciating the quality of the advertisement.
There seems to be a perceived conflict between RFK Jr.'s actions and the legacy of his family, leading some to believe his views are more conservative than those of his relatives.
He also drew criticism from Libertarians, implying that he supports a heavily government-involved economic system.
There was some support following the ad, showing enthusiastic about his independent campaign and anticipation for the announcement of his running mate.
A few praise the Super Bowl ad as being effective in spreading the word of his presidential bid, particularly among older demographics.
A notable number of individuals express a sense of nostalgia in response to his ad, even if they do not support him for president.
Questions About Funding
A portion of the conversation also revolved around the Super Bowl ad's creation and dissemination. RFK Jr. clarified in a tweet that the ad was made and aired without his campaign's involvement or approval. He apologized, explaining that Federal Election Commission (FEC) rules prohibit Super PACs from consulting with him or his staff.
Some are wary of the sources of his campaign funding, with allegations of being backed by one of Trump's biggest donors sparking controversy
There is also controversy around the use of family members' images in the ad, with suggestions that RFK Jr's views on healthcare are contrary to his family’s.
Some view RFK Jr.’s apology as a necessary step towards resolving a family dispute, while others see it as an admission of his controversial stance on healthcare.
The Super Bowl ad seems to have successfully sparked discussion and debate around RFK Jr.’s political stances, attracting both support and criticism. It has has effectively raised his profile and generated significant attention, although whether this will translate into broader political support remains to be seen.
Although many Democrats online express support for the Biden administration, the party as a whole, and include VP Harris, there is question about whether she alone could maintain even Biden’s decreasing levels of confidence among the American people.
Comparing Harris to other politicians in her party, MIG data suggests that her popularity is lower than President Biden's, even among Democrats.
In the last 30 days, Harris has shown an average approval of 46% compared to Biden’s 49%.
Harris’ 30-day low of 42% trails 6 points behind Biden’s low of 48% and only rose above Biden once on February 5.
How Democrats Talk about VP Harris
Although both receive criticism, it appears more focused on Harris, with more negative remarks directed at her.
Some conversations imply that she is seen as an insurance policy against impeachment for President Biden, rather than providing value on her own merits.
Democrats generally show support for Harris, praising her accomplishments and expressing hope for her future success, but mostly lauding her as a symbol of representation.
She is celebrated by many Democrats for her historic role as the first female Vice President.
Democrats do express concern over her performance, suggesting that the administration needs to find better ways to communicate its achievements to the public.
Many defend Harris and Biden against criticism and reaffirm their intention to vote for the Democratic party in future elections, regardless of current sentiment.
This position is expressed along with frustration at her performance and suggestions she is less popular than some of her Democratic counterparts.
Praise and Criticism for Kamala Harris
There are some positives which Harris supporters point out.
The VP is celebrated for her involvement in initiatives like Transit Equity Day.
It's clear that her identity as the first woman, first Black woman, and first Asian American woman to be Vice President is a source of pride.
People often praise her experience as a former senator and attorney general of California.
Her support for progressive policies such as climate change, equality, and healthcare is greatly appreciated within the party.
While she has a strong base of support among Democrats, she is also the subject of intense criticism.
Many view Harris as less experienced and more ideologically driven than Biden.
Some Democrats express concerns about her past record as a prosecutor in California and her handling of key assignments.
She has also received criticism for her performance and inaction as Border Czar.
Many in her own party expressed dissatisfaction at her management of the border, with some going as far as to call for her impeachment.
There are complaints about perceived lack of visibility and effectiveness in her role, and concerns about low approval ratings as the 2024 election nears.
There is worry that her past stances on criminal justice issues could alienate progressive voters and harm the party's chances in future elections.
There is a sense of disappointment among some Democrats due to perceived underperformance and lack of tangible action.
A primary concern among Democrats is a perceived lack of transparency and accountability.
Many criticize what they perceive as her inability to effectively communicate and defend the administration's policies.
Another complaint is her perceived lack of visibility regarding major policy issues.
Some argue she has not been proactive in advancing the Biden administration's policy agenda and worry that she may not be prepared to assume the presidency if needed.
Several voters indicate a concern about the potential for Harris to become President, either through the 25th amendment or in the event of the impeachment of President Biden.
Comparatively, Harris seems to be less popular than many politicians within her own party. This perception is driven by her low approval ratings.
The discourse surrounding Joe Biden's cognitive abilities has been a contentious topic across all political spectrums. Americans perceived his recent press conference as an unmitigated disaster and even his defenders cannot continue to ignore the rumors of his decline.
In the 24 hours since the Special Council report detailed Biden’s mental unfitness to face charges in a classified document case, and after his contentious press conference, Biden’s approval has yet to take a significant hit. While this could still change, one implication could be that Democrats still intend to vote along party lines, even if they believe he is mentally unfit for office.
In the last day, Biden’s approval remained strong at 48% and Trump saw a slight bump from 47% to 48%.
The top discussion topics regarding the president online in the last 24 hours include:
Reactions to the Special Council Report
Online discussion predictably reflected partisan divides in the aftermath of the Special Council’s report calling Biden a “Sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
Republicans expressed disappointment and anger, suggesting that the decision not to charge him was a product of bias and not reflective of the truth.
Many cited the very similar charges brought against Trump as evidence of a two-tier justice system.
Republicans say the decision not to charge Biden was politically motivated and determining Biden unfit for charges but fit for office is an untenable contradiction.
There are calls for the application of the 25th Amendment or impeachment, as well as suggestions that the same leniency wasn't extended to former President Trump.
Many Democrats saw the refusal to charge as a vindication of Biden and a repudiation of what they perceive as baseless accusations.
Some suggest that Biden's focus may have been elsewhere due to the complex and numerous issues he is dealing with, like the crisis in Ukraine and the attack by Hamas.
They are focusing on the fact that Biden will not face charges, rather than the salience of the reasons given by the DOJ.
Despite most Democrats avoiding the issue prior to the report, there is now some expressed concern it gives credence to doubts about Biden's cognitive abilities.
Some Democrats acknowledge concerns about Biden's cognitive abilities, but they primarily view these as character attacks, expressing support for Biden and Harris.
A few have admitted the special counsel's assessment of Biden's cognitive abilities is concerning, questioning if someone unfit for trial should continue as POTUS.
Conversations Following the President’s Confused Press Conference
Many people across all political affiliations commented on Biden’s confusion about Gaza, the Mexico border, and the president of Egypt, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. However, explanations for his confusion differed depending on political affiliation.
Republicans pointed out that Biden made these egregious errors directly after defending his fitness and denying any memory problems, using it as evidence of his decline.
They suggest the press conference confirmed the special counsel's report about Biden’s poor memory and deteriorating cognition.
Democrats continue to dismiss these concerns, pointing out that occasional verbal gaffes are common among all politicians, regardless of age or cognitive fitness.
Many Democrats also cited the complex nature of the issues he was addressing, claiming mistakes are not indicative of dementia or other cognitive deteriorations.
Some Democrats compared Biden to former President Trump, asserting that Biden's actions were not as damaging or obstructive as Trump's.
It is clear that bias and party loyalty is shaping public perceptions about Biden’s mistakes which, everyone now admits, are noticeable. This highlights the deep-seated divisions within the current political landscape.
In a recent Las Vegas rally, President Biden shored up support from Nevada Democrats before winning the Nevada Primary this Tuesday. With few real Democrat challengers, Biden aimed much of his speech at his inevitable challenger, former President Donald Trump, in what Newsweek called Biden’s, “Angriest Speech Yet”. However, the subject matter of Biden’s fiery critique of Trump was quickly overshadowed by yet another gaffe from the 81 year old Commander-in-Chief. Biden told the audience of Nevadans that at the beginning of his Presidency, he met with G20 leaders and he spoke to a French President who died in 1996. The clip of yet another Biden senior moment was viewed 21 million times on X, with 11,000 reposts and 40,000 likes.
MIG’s report revealed the President’s appearance in the Silver state did little to sway Nevada, both in approval for Biden and in head to head support vs Trump. Much of the online discussions surrounding Biden revealed themes of either dismay at the state of the Biden’s America or serious nostalgia for the Trump Presidency.
By the Numbers
MIG’s data reveals that after Biden’s Sunday speech (2/4) in Las Vegas, his approval amongst online discussants remained stuck in the mid 40% range, rising only 1% the day of his speech.
This matches the response to President Trump’s visit to Nevada in late January, when his approval also mariginally rose from 44% to 45% the day of his speech.But Trump’s approval rose to 48% that weekwhen legal developments involving the President broke.
In head to head support analysis, MIG found that in Nevada over the last month:
Trump averaged 50% support.
Biden averages 41% support.
RFK jr. averaged 9% support.
Biden also trails Trump on key issues in Nevada:
On the economy, online discussions still show Trump beating Biden 47% to 41%.
On Border Security, Trump trounces Biden 47% to 39%.
On the Topic of Security Issues, Trump Holds 44% to Biden’s 38%.
The Trump Show
The lack of approval changes after both Biden and Trump’s speeches in Nevada reflects a broader trend seen in politics: campaigning directly to voters, known as retail politics is useless against Trump.
Instead, Trump’s ability leverage charisma and media to connect with the electorate has controlled the political narrative-by framing establishment prosecutionsas attacks against the silent majority.
MIG’s analysis of Nevada online discussions centering on Trump demonstrated “Trump's narrative of being an outsider battling against a corrupt system resonates with his supporters. When he is prosecuted, it bolsters this narrative and makes him appear as a martyr fighting against a rigged system.”
Biden’s cognitive decline leaves little ability to leverage media in the way his predecessor does, leaving Biden strategists to focus on Biden’s policies.
BideNOmics
Yet the Biden strategy of focusing on policy is already proving fruitless, as analysis by MIG in both Clark County and Nevada shows:
In Nevada, amongst online users discussing Biden, “There is a perception among users that Biden is favoring non-citizens over U.S. citizens, particularly in reference to immigration and housing issues.”
Negative sentiment on the economy is also strong in Clark County specifically, where MIG found:
“concerns about the increasing rent prices and unaffordable housing, which some attribute to "Bidenomics".”
More generally, “Frustration over increasing living costs under Biden's administration, with some individuals claiming their cost of living has significantly increased.”
Make America Great Again, Again
Biden’s strategy of contrasting his Presidency with Trump to Nevadans falls flat beyond its own merits, withmany highlighting preference for the Trump Presidency. MIG’s analysis of Nevada online discussions comparing Trump to Biden found:
Foreign Policy: “Many comments compare Biden's Presidency with Trump's..people seem to believe that Trump had a more peaceful approach to foreign policy, refraining from starting new wars, and had a better relationship with countries like Russia and North Korea.”
Immigration: “Criticism of Biden often centers on the perceived lack of control over the southern border and the potential implications for crime and the economy. These users view Biden's policies as too lenient, leading to an increase in illegal immigration.” While other “users believe that Trump was better at enforcing immigration laws and protecting the border, and criticize Biden for his stance on immigration.”
Despite media framing of Trump holding back immigration reform, Nevadans who appear to not even be Republicans continue to slam Biden, “People are comparing Biden's policies to previous administrations, particularly those of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, criticizing Biden for not being as assertive on immigration issues.”
Handling of the Economy: “Some users argue that Trump was better at managing the economy, pointing to the GDP growth under his administration.”
Looking Ahead
Despite Biden’s Las Vegas rally and a strong primary win, the incumbent President’s campaign looks increasingly helpless in the face of a dominant showing by Donald Trump in swing states like Nevada and national polling in general.
The best campaign gurus of the left can do little to twist reality of what life was like during the Trump Presidency compared to now in the eyes of voters, nor can they make the noticeably 81 year old President seem any younger.
MIG's analysis underscores a stagnant approval rating for Biden in the face of an enduring appeal on Trump era policies on the economy, border security, and national security. Even if the unemployment rate continues to remains strong and inflation plateaus, Biden's message will continue to be overshadowed by Trump’s dominance of the news cycle and gaffes that fuel discussions about his fitness for office. This reflects a broader trend in American politics where charismatic leadership and dominance of media presence increasingly overshadow traditional retail politics. It becomes more and more clear that there is little Biden can do to win the hearts and minds of voters in an era of personality and vibes driven politics that Trump has mastered.
AOC, Illhan Omar, and Cori Bush finds themselves embroiled in chaos of their own doing, as members navigate investigations, defending Biden, and questions of national allegiance. Representative Cori Bush (D-MO) faces a damning DOJ and FEC investigation over misuse of campaign and government funds, while Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (D-MN) grapples with the fallout from what many have called a “Somalia First” speech, shocking conservatives and globalist Democrats alike. Meanwhile, AOC faces fire from both Israel defenders and Pro-Palestine radicals for defending both Biden and the UN’s shady ties to Hamas.
Cori Bush: Police For Me, Not For Thee
Rep. Cori Bush, a second-term lawmaker who paved her path to Congress casting herself as an anti-police zealot has found herself in the DOJ’s crosshairs over misuse of government and campaign funds made to her now-husband, who was part of her private security team.
Bush confirmed her cooperation with the Department of Justice's investigation, but bemoaned that “right wing organizations have lodged baseless complaints against me, peddling notions that I have misused campaign funds”. Yet, the investigation into Bush is also being conducted by the Federal Election Commission, which oversees campaign finance crimes.
What they’re saying
In part of her defense, Bush argued the security expenses were necessary for her personal safety. Bush’s comments were met with the usual ire seen from right wing voices, with Tomi Lahren telling Fox News radio listeners, “Bush was one of the loudest voices inthe BLM fight to “defund the police,” but turns out she only wanted YOUR protection to be reduced.”
Bush’s duplicity was even too much for far left talking heads to ignore. Cenk Uyghur of “The Young Turks", a far left youtube channel with 1.5 million subscribers, echoed Lahren’s comments, telling listeners, “is there a sense of irony here, no protection for you but protection for me?" to which co-host Ana Kasparian quipped back "In situations where you can't rely on police, just hire private police-it only costs hundreds of thousands of dollars".
By the Numbers
MIG reports found that the perception of disconnect between Bush’s politics and lifestyle is also held by everyday Americans, and it’s sullying the Squad’s reputation as a whole.
MIG’s AI summary analysis found that in discussions surrounding Bush online, “posts link the investigation to Bush'sideological affiliations, particularly hermembership inthe "Squad."Users online suggest that Bush and her allies are hypocritical and corrupt.”
The negative sentiment circling Bush online registered strongly, with MIG’s data showing the St. Louis rep’s online approval dropping 8% the day after the investigations were announced.
Illhan Omar: Somalia First, not America First
Congresswoman Illhan Omar threw more fuel into the Squad’s chaos in late January as well. Omar, who has made frequent anti-semitic accusations of “dual loyalty” in Congress to Israel, created doubt over her own loyalty to the U.S. after demanding Somalia come first in US Foreign Policy in a speech in Minneapolis. "The US will do what we want, nothing else.”, Omar declared. “They must follow our orders. That is how we safeguard the interests of Somalia."
Republicans Fire Back: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced a censure resolution aimed at Omar over what the Georgia firebrand called "treasonous statements.". Republican Rep. Tom Emmer added to Greene’s lawfare, announcing an ethics complaint directed at Omar.
MIG online discussion analysis on Omar during this period and found a dramatic drop in her approval levels:
Following the January 27th speech, Omar’s approval dropped from 45% to 37%.
Omar’s approval average in the 10 days prior to the speech rested at 46%, while her approval in the 10 days since the speech averaged 41%.
“The online discussion about Ilhan Omar is highly polarized and leans mostly negative...participants express dissatisfaction and disappointment with her recent comments, which they interpret as her prioritizing her Somali identity and loyalty to Somalia over her American identity and responsibilities.”
“They accuse her of having a special relationship with the President of Somalia, referring to him as "our president," which they interpret as a sign of disloyalty to the United States.”
“Additionally, there are accusations of her supporting Sharia Law and wanting to introduce it to the United States, which is causing further negative sentiment towards her.”
AOC Faces Dual Criticism
Adding to the Squad's controversies, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez found herself caught in crossfire, facing criticism from both Palestinian and Israeli supporters. MIG analysis of online discussions directed at the New York Congresswoman revealed multifaceted criticisms:
Perceived Support for Hamas: “Users criticize AOC for her perceived support for Hamas, a group they consider to be a terrorist organization, by endorsing the restoration of funding to UNRWA, which they believe indirectly benefits Hamas.”
Understanding of Gaza Situation: “Some users express disappointment in AOC, suggesting she lacks a comprehensive understanding of Gaza and arguing that Hamas leaders should provide aid to Palestinians instead of relying on international organizations.”
Accusation of Inconsistency: “Critics accuse AOC of inconsistency, transitioning from tears over funding Israel's Iron Dome to denying genocide, lowering her online sentiment.”
Criticisms Over Support for Biden: “AOC faces negative sentiment from users who disagree with her endorsement of Joe Biden due to their own political disagreements or misalignment of her progressive ideals with Biden's centrist policies.”
MIG’s analysis of the conversations surrounding AOC following her Meet the Press interview found her approval dropped 7%, while earning 37% approval on the topic of Palestine and 38% on the topic of Israel.
Looking Ahead
The ongoing scrutiny engulfing the Squad is another revealing episode that underscores the discrepancy between the supposed voice of the working class left and the reality of politicians that play by their own rules. The attention earned by self imposed chaos will deal significant blows to the image and strategy of the Progressive movement and, by extension, the Democratic Party as a whole. As the far left lawmakers grapple with the fallout of voters realizing the reality of who the Squad is, the Democratic party will continue to face PR challenges of winning over voters in a nation that increasingly demands those that represent them play by the same rules as Americans, regardless of wealth, status, or job title.
MIG data is showing a deep polarization in views about Biden's health and his potential reelection. In many conversations, there's a subtext of worry over Biden’s cognitive abilities that spans all political views. However, it's often used as a talking point rather than an expression of concern for Biden's well-being.
Republicans tend to leverage Biden’s health to criticize his capability as a leader, Democrats downplay it to counteract Republican narratives, and Independents use it as part of broader discussions on policy and leadership.
Discussions About Whether Biden is Running the Country
While views about Biden’s cognitive fitness generally divide along party lines, there is a brewing discussion about whether he is the one making important decisions.
Most supporters believe Biden is running the country effectively, citing his focus on climate change, infrastructure, and healthcare.
They appreciate his calm demeanor and his effort to unite the country after a contentious and polarized period.
However, a significant number of Americans express skepticism about Biden's leadership. They question his mental and physical fitness, often pointing to his age and recurring verbal gaffes.
Generally right leaning, this group implies that there might be others "pulling the strings," as they suggest that Biden cannot be fully in charge.
Speculation about actual decision makers include the Democratic Party's more progressive members.
Names are mentioned like Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and The Squad, and various interest groups advocating for progressive causes.
There is also a widespread belief among some circles that "woke" culture and corporations significantly influence Biden's policies.
This sentiment is often expressed in discussions around issues such as race, gender, and social justice, with critics arguing that Biden is bending to the will of these progressive forces.
Some theories suggest a shadowy, deep-state influence, implying that unknown entities might are controlling the presidency. But these theories are generally dismissed as misinformation.
It is noteworthy that these perspectives vary widely, often falling along partisan lines. Biden's supporters tend to view him as effectively running the country, while his critics are typically the ones who view his leadership skeptically.
Democrats Avoid Talking About Biden’s Cognitive Abilities
National Conversations
Democrats tend to be relatively quiet about about Biden's frequent gaffes and lack of unscripted public appearances. This suggests that Democrats may have unspoken concerns which they’re not willing to voice publicly.
While Democrats sometimes acknowledge Biden’s coherence issues, they do not seem to view them as indicative of mental decline or as disqualifying for a potential reelection.
Democrat commentary generally defends Biden, pointing to his achievements and dismissing criticisms of his mental health as unfounded.
Due to the dismissiveness on the subject, one could infer that Democrats might be more supportive of Biden's policies and perhaps less likely to view his age or health as important.
Democrats tend to argue that Biden has been an effective leader and deserves reelection.
They rebut Republican accusations of mental decline by suggesting that these are politically motivated attacks.
Some Democrats do express concern about the effectiveness of Biden's messaging, indicating that they believe he needs to do a better job of promoting his accomplishments.
Counter-Narratives About Trump’s Cognitive Abilities
In many discussions, Democrats argue that Trump’s mental state is equally questionable or even worse than Biden’s.
Many refer to Trump's cognitive abilities negatively when Biden is brought up.
They often recall instances during his presidency where his behavior or remarks were seen as erratic, unorthodox, or even authoritarian.
Swing State Democrats
In key states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and other swing states, Democrats generally align with national party sentiment, although there is more noticeable concern.
National approval for Biden has averaged 49% in the last 30 days, while approval in swing states averaged 44%.
Some swing state voters argue that Biden’s potential cognitive decline is being exaggerated or manipulated for political gain.
There is noticeable dismissal when concerns are brought up, mirroring the national conversation.
Many swing state Democrats do not directly mention Biden's health or potential mental decline.
Lack of discussion may be due to an overshadowing anti-Trump sentiment within the party.
However, there are some Democrats voicing concern about Biden's potential cognitive decline, arguing that it could harm the party's chances in future elections.
A large segment of swing state Democrats seem to take issue with Republican narratives, but will not explicitly defend Biden's cognitive abilities.
There is a clear divide among swing state Democrats about a potential Biden second term, with some expressing strong support and others voicing doubts.
Republicans View Biden as Clearly in Decline
National Conversations
Overall, Republicans tend to be most vocal about the possibility that Joe Biden is not actually running the country, but rather has “handlers” guiding him. They often express concerns about what they see as clear cognitive decline.
Republicans frequently express concerns about Biden's mental acuity. They point to his recurring verbal stumbles, confusion, and gaffes as evidence of cognitive decline.
They often cite Biden’s age, physical weakness, and frequent confusion as evidence of his decline.
There are many references to Biden forgetting important details, or misspeaking. His recent mistake in mixing up Macron and Mitterrand has been a recent point of interest.
There are repeated suggestions that Biden is "gaslighting" the public for votes or acting out of treasonous motivations.
Many express concern over potential corruption and general incompetence within the Biden administration.
Strong sentiments of disbelief and frustration are present, with some voters calling for Biden’s impeachment or for him to undergo cognitive testing.
Many Republicans feel that Biden's lack of press appearances and obfuscation from his spokespeople are indicative of a more serious health issue.
They also seem to believe that Biden's reelection would be terrible for the country due to a low probability of his completing a second term.
This narrative is often accompanied by criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris, with detractors suggesting that she is unqualified or ineffective in her role.
American voters have an unhappy view about the job market and general state of the economy. Conversations online boil down to two indicators:
Distrust in the economic reporting
How the government spends money
Americans remain skeptical about the job reports, with claims that half of the jobs are "fake" and the other half being government jobs. They also express concern about the lack of new jobs for native-born Americans since 2018. This sentiment could be indicative of wider concerns about unemployment, underemployment, and the overall health of the job market.
Online conversations support this a pattern of the top discussions:
Concerns about job security and employment prospects, especially for native-born Americans
Doubts about the accuracy and reliability of government-provided statistics
Belief in the recovery and stabilization of the labor market
General interest in economic matters, with specific focus on employment rates and the health of the job market
The broader context of political discourse, with jobs and the economy being key issues in political campaigns and policy-making
Bipartisan Disapproval
Democrats' comments seem to focus more on dissatisfaction with the current tax system, advocating for reform and suggesting that wealthy individuals and large corporations are not paying their fair share. They also express concerns about how tax money is being spent, particularly with regard to funding wars.
Republicans' comments reveal a similar dissatisfaction with the tax system, but from a different angle. They mention the burden of taxes on the middle class and business owners, and they express frustration with how tax money is spent. They also seem to be against high taxes and are more likely to suggest tax cuts or reforms that reduce taxes.
Independents' comments are a mix of the above. They express frustration with the complexity of the tax system, the perceived unfairness of the distribution of tax burdens, and the misuse of tax money. They also discuss the impact of taxes on various groups, including the homeless and the self-employed. Some Independents seem open to both tax hikes for the wealthy and tax cuts for middle-income earners and businesses.
Media Narrative Support
Online conversations appear to be sustained by assistance from traditional approaches; online discussions peaked on Jan 10, Jan 18, Jan 25, Feb.
Jan 10: several articles about Biden adding 14 million jobs
Jan 18: Biden tweets about adding 14 million jobs
Jan 25: several articles and Nancy Pelosi tweet about adding 14 million jobs
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