ICE may begin the mass-release of illegal immigrants after the failed border bill, but many Americans are unaware, online trends show. In the wake of the ICE bombshell, online discussion increased only slightly, indicating border policy fallout may be delayed.

• While the border remains a top election issue, early February’s House battle over the widely criticized Border Bill saw peak discussion volume, reaching nearly 30,000 online mentions.
• Trends show widespread dissatisfaction with the Biden Administration’s policies and the worsening situation on the US southern border.
• However, by February 14, discussion was down by two thirds, barely crossing 10,000 mentions in the wake of the failed so-called Border Bill, which would limit illegal border crossings to 5,000 per day.
• The data suggests that Americans are unaware of the implications of continued border security issues as volume decreases, yet negative sentiment remains stable.
• Border sentiment has held within a few percentage points of 45% for the last 30 days and sits at 45% as of February 15.

Competing with wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the DOJ Special Counsel Report questioning President Biden’s fitness for office, border security has dropped to sixth place among trending topics. Yet the undiscussed bombshell—that ICE may be set for the widespread release of detained illegal immigrants—has yet to explode.

Top issues online:

1. Biden – special counsel report
2. Security issues – Ukraine and Israel
3. Ideologies – Wokeism
4. Economic issues – taxes and inflation
5. Palestine – Gaza and Hamas
6. Border security – illegal immigration

The discussion around ICE’s potential mass release is limited, according to MIG data. But there is a clear sentiment among those who are discussing it that illegal immigrants should be deported immediately upon encounter with law enforcement.

What People Are Saying About the Border

Discussion of the border falls predictably within partisan lines, even as democrats’ sentiment on the border has eroded. A clear theme is that huge numbers of illegal entries are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, and more Americans now call for stricter border control and mass deportations.

• Mass Deportations: Many Americans are expressing frustration and anger towards immigration policies they perceive as lax, calling for mass deportations and closing the border.
• Sentiment tracking shows the Border is linked with a host of other critical issues: Americans are worried about crime, terrorism, and the economic burden associated with illegal immigrants.

• There are also increasing accusations of treason against individuals who support open border policies.
• Double standards: trends show dissatisfaction with preferential treatment for illegals, such as bypassing TSA screening at airports and benefits funded by American taxpayers.
• Discussion of ICE is limited, but existing trends show a critical stance toward the agency for releasing illegals into the US—which could happen at scale in the wake of the Biden Administration’s battle with the House.

Blame to Go Around

While discussion has simmered in the wake of the bill’s failure, trends show Americans’ anger over the border persists.

• Republican voters are accusing the Biden administration of lying and gaslighting the public in its claims the administration lacks the authority to close the border.
• The few Democrats who have reacted to the border crisis are blaming Republicans and, more specifically, Donald Trump.
• Some defending the Biden administration claim immigrants contribute to the economy and pay taxes.
• Liberal voters criticized Republican lawmakers for blocking the legislation, which would have permitted 5,000 illegal border crossings each day. But increasingly, democrats have turned on the Biden Administration’s handling of the issue.

Impeached DHS secretary Alejandro Mayorkas also received attention in the wake of his House impeachment inquiry.

• On the day of his impeachment, and the following day, discussion about Mayorkas increased from roughly 500 to 1,500 mentions.
• Approval for Mayorkas actually increased from 45% to 46% on the day of his impeachment.
• This indicates that, despite widespread dissatisfaction with the border, Americans are not fully on board with Republican political tactics.

However, along with negativity toward House Republicans, the public discourse around Mayorkas is under fire, with calls for his ouster.

• Many are arguing Mayorkas was derelict in his duty from day one, and that his impeachment is direct fallout from his handling of the border.
• Some are unsatisfied with Mayorkas as the target for inquiry, suggesting Mayorkas’ and DHS’ problems with the border extend to Biden and the White House.
• Even among some Republicans, there is belief that impeaching Mayorkas will not solve the underlying issue, as the Biden Administration will likely replace Maryorkas with someone equally unfit.
• There are also criticisms that the House Republicans have spent more time trying to impeach Mayorkas than they have spent actually securing the border.
• There is speculation that President Biden will scapegoat Mayorkas’ DHS to shift blame away from his administration.
• The Senate's ability to convict Mayorkas is unclear, with the real possibility a Senate trial would end in acquittal.

Overall, trends indicate Americans are unhappy with officials and lawmakers across the board when it comes to the southern border. Even as the border has lost ground to war and security issues in trending discourse, sentiment shows deep underlying negativity among Americans about the number of illegal immigrants entering the country.

Security issues have obscured the prospect of widespread ICE releases of illegals, the fallout of which remains to be seen.