Inaccurate poll results in previous elections combined with worsening political polarization is eroding public confidence in polling overall. Voters express loyalty, hostility, fear, and distrust, with emotional conclusions often superseding polling data presented as fact. MIG Reports analysis reveals underlying patterns shaping public perception and how polls are interpreted in 2024.

Belief in Polls

Widespread Skepticism

Skepticism towards polling is a recurring theme, particularly on the right. Many distrust mainstream polling, believing the data is manipulated or biased to favor Harris and the Democratic establishment.

Skepticism of polls is ensconced in broader disillusionment with mainstream media and political institutions. This group view polls showing Harris in a favorable light as part of a larger agenda to undermine Trump and demoralize GOP voters.

Selective Trust

Despite their general distrust, Trump supporters selectively trust polling data when the results favor him. They express confidence in polls showing Trump in the lead, while dismissing those that do not align with their expectations.

This selective belief in polling suggests partisan leanings influence the perception of facts. Harris supporters similarly prefer to believe polls in their side’s favor. Polls showing Harris performing better than Biden prior to dropping out reinforce their optimism and hope for a second Trump defeat.

Emotional Engagement Over Data

Emotions likely play a greater role than objective statistical analysis in shaping people’s responses to polling. Rather than engaging with numbers in a detached manner, voters often react based on their emotional investment in certain outcomes.

Sentiments such as hope, fear, and animosity heavily influence their interpretation of polling results. For many, the polls serve less as an objective measure of public opinion and more as a reflection of their political identity and lived experiences.

Polarization and Loyalty

Trump and Harris supporters have sharply divided views of polling numbers. Republicans voice strong loyalty to Trump, often framing their support as a defiance of political oppression. They view Trump as a symbol of resistance, rallying around his perceived successes, and expressing doubt about negative polls results.

Harris supporters emphasize a desire for competent, progressive leadership, seeing her as a beacon of change and social justice. This divergence illustrates the stark polarization in sentiment, where each candidate's potential success would be viewed as revelatory of inaccurate polling.

Hostility and Animosity

Hostility toward Harris and Democrats is strong among Trump supporters, who frequently use derogatory terms to describe her and the Democratic Party. Harris is often portrayed as a failure or a traitor, intensifying the "us versus them" narrative.

Democratic voters are hostile to Trump, calling him an embarrassment to the nation, describing his leadership as detrimental to American democracy. This animosity is not limited to the candidates but extends to the political systems and institutions they represent. This fuels distrust and disillusionment in traditional forecasting methods.

Fear and Anxiety

Loyalty to Trump is often accompanied by fear about the consequences of a Harris victory. Republicans express anxiety over election integrity, fearing the system is being manipulated to favor the Democratic candidates, including polls.

These concerns are intertwined with broader fears about political change and the perceived threat to American values. Harris supporters have a sense of urgency, viewing the election as critical for advancing social justice and inclusivity. For them, the 2024 election represents a pivotal moment in shaping the future of the country.

American feelings toward the government show emerging fears tied to historical, socioeconomic, and political disillusionment. People are highly frustration with a government they view as disconnected from their needs. They say leaders are more aligned with political correctness or international obligations than with the people’s needs.

Frustrations are particularly evident in discussions about immigration, crime, inflation, and inadequate government responses to crises like Hurricane Helene. Many citizens feel their safety and local economic stability are ignored, further eroding trust in governance.

Everybody Is Feeling It

Voters are overwhelmingly concerned about government overreach and a lack of accountability. They mention things like "totalitarian control" and "censorship,” demonstrating anxieties about the potential erosion of civil liberties.

New Poll: 74% Worry Americans Could Lose Our Freedoms If We’re Not Careful https://t.co/W1yoH4Vxt8 via @CatoInstitute #4thJuly #IndependenceDay

— Emily Ekins (@emilyekins) July 4, 2024

This sentiment is not limited to any one group but spreads across diverse demographics, from rural voters concerned about systemic failures to younger, urban voters focused on social issues like climate change and police reform. Both groups share a common feeling of being abandoned by political leaders, although their concerns often manifest in different areas of policy.

Generational Divides

• Voters under 35 tend to be more complacent or negative about the country’s founding principles. They are skeptical of traditional governance structures.
• Older generations strongly support the U.S. Constitution and view the founding of the country in a more positive light.
• There’s frustration in minority and working-class communities, where voters view economic instability and cultural tensions as exacerbated by poor leadership.

While many express distrust toward the government, a majority still hold favorable views of foundational documents like the U.S. Constitution. This juxtaposes reverence for the country’s ideals and disillusionment with current leaders.

Despite calls for reforms, 60% of Americans oppose redesigning or discarding the Constitution. Voters want to maintain the nation's institutional framework while seeking accountability from elected officials.

Finding a Means to an End

The most vocal groups are rallying around populist figures who promise to dismantle existing political systems like Trump, RFK Jr., and Tulsi Gabbard, and Elon Musk. These figures tap into fears of government corruption and inefficiency, leading citizens to embrace more radical solutions.

Voters want transparency, enhanced community engagement, and bipartisan efforts to address economic and social issues. Restoring trust likely requires major overhauls to address the root causes of disillusionment and overhaul entrenched establishments. Americans want solutions to economic struggles and cultural fracturing, and they want their voices to be heard in policy discussions.

7-Eleven announced it is closing hundreds of stores in Chicago and around the country, sparking debate about the reasons why. The convenience chain cites “lower store traffic, lower cigarette sales, and a shift in what consumers are looking for” as the reasons for closing.

7-11 stores are closing all over the Chicago area, this one on State & Grand , EMPTY CHICAGO STOREFRONT PROJECT: Im posting daily empty storefronts as businesses leave at a high rate. I blame massive property taxes, 10.25% sales tax, high state income tax, poor schools, high… pic.twitter.com/z01Z06lKkE

— Mark Weyermuller (@publicpolicyman) October 14, 2024

Voters online view these closures as a signal of various dysfunctions in cities like Chicago and growing problems for residents. There are concerns over rising crime rates, economic instability, and political mismanagement. Americans discuss fear, frustration, and political polarization, all of which impact the sentiment of Illinois voters prior to the election.

The Symbolism of 7-Eleven Closures

For many Illinoisans, 7-Eleven shuttering stores is more than a corporate business decision. They view it as emblematic of a community under siege, where public safety has deteriorated to the point that businesses no longer feel secure operating and employing workers in these areas.

Rampant business closures, often in urban centers already grappling with crime, generate widespread public outrage and impassioned online discussions. Residents see the closures as a direct result of failing leadership, inadequate law enforcement, and misguided policies that allow crime to spiral out of control.

Americans fear businesses are fleeing areas with unchecked violence, creating a cascading economic effect. Losing businesses exacerbates feelings of insecurity among residents who rely on these local stores for convenience and community engagement.

Crime and Public Sentiment

Crime has become a politically charged topic in Chicago. The dominant narrative blames Democratic leadership, particularly figures like Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden.

Angry residents say Democrats, foster an environment allowing crime to thrive. Many voters attribute rising crime with leniency on immigration and law enforcement policies. Voters often say violent incidents increase with open-border policies and leadership’s failure to protect local citizens.

Voters want action when they hear stories of increasing business closures. Conservatives dominate the conversation, urging voters to back candidates who promise tougher stances on crime and stricter immigration controls.

The urgency in voter discussions is high, framing the upcoming election as critical to the survival of various struggling communities. Stories of economic and rule-of-law erosion become a rallying point for galvanizing support for candidates who promise to be tough on crime.

Impact on Voter Behavior

The 7-Eleven closings are not a localized issue, as more retailers and businesses are closing locations around the country for revenue and safety reasons. Residents feel disconnected from political elites, whom they perceive as out of touch with crime and economic hardship on the ground.

Voters express a desire for leaders who will address public safety as a primary issue, rather than focusing on national or international policies that feel distant from the day-to-day struggles of average Americans.

Voters express fear and betrayal, framing their political choices as an opportunity to protect their families’ futures. This fear-driven narrative suggests that crime will be a central issue driving voters to the polls. Recent FBI revisions showing rising national violent crime rates solidify perceptions that leadership is failing to maintain public safety.

Demographic Patterns

Younger voters are more critical of established leadership, questioning the competence of older political figures and expressing concern over public safety. These younger voices show a degree of skepticism toward both major political parties but seem more inclined to demand structural changes to address rising crime and economic insecurity.