Fear and rumors about the potential of overturning of Obergefell v. Hodges in the wake of Roe v. Wade being overturned causes concern among many Americans. The landmark 2015 Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriage in the United States has the potential to become a contentious partisan issue as Trump takes his second term with a conservative majority Supreme Court.

Concerns about the future of same-sex marriage are emerging, creating debates about civil rights, states’ rights, and judicial overreach. While many are firmly opposed to reversing Obergefell, there is not an overwhelming majority and there may be significant opportunities to influence voter sentiment.

Sentiment on Overturning Obergefell

MIG Reports data shows partisan division on overturning Obergefell, shifting the conversation around same-sex marriage from a question of legal rights to debates about the role of the judiciary, individual liberties, and federalism.

37% Oppose Overturning Obergefell

A slight majority of online discussion voices strong opposition to any move by SCOTUS to reverse Obergefell. They focus on equal rights and say overturning it would be a severe setback for civil liberties and societal progress.

Concerns about broader attacks on LGBTQ rights and protections are prevalent among critics. Many argue reversing gay marriage would facilitate eroding individual rights, as they say Roe v. Wade has done.

25% Support Overturning Obergefell

A strong minority voice support for the idea of overturning Obergefell. They argue a reversal aligns with states’ rights and preserving religious freedoms. They say marriage should be defined by individual states, reflecting local values and beliefs rather than a federal mandate—which many say is unconstitutional.

There is frustration with perceived judicial overreach in legalizing same-sex marriage, saying the issue should be returned to the states. There are some who argue gay marriage should not be legal at all. However, there is significant debate about federalism versus morality among conservatives.

20% Religious and Anti-State Views

A significant group calls for a complete restructuring of marriage laws. These views are more anti-state. They don’t just want to repeal Obergefell but also challenge the very concept of marriage as a legal institution.

This group frames their arguments within societal norms, often advocating for a return to traditional, religiously rooted family structures. Many here express moral objections to same-sex marriage. When combined with those who focus only on the legal battle, potential support for repealing Obergefell could be as high as 45%.

33% are Ambivalent or Uncertain

The neutral or uncertain stance on the issue is significant in discussions. This group has mixed views about the implications of overturning Obergefell. While they may not be entirely against or in favor, many are concerned about the societal and personal implications it would create—particularly for gay couples already married.

Uncertainty is driven by a desire for further dialogue and a deeper understanding of how a reversal might impact both marriage equality and LGBTQ rights overall. This portion of the electorate maybe be a persuadable group, open to messaging that presents the issue in a balanced but legally grounded context.

Targeting Persuadable Voters

Understanding which voter segments are open to persuasion is crucial for shaping effective messaging.

Moderates and Independents

• These voters are typically not committed to either side but are generally receptive to arguments grounded in judicial neutrality and local control.
• They value pragmatic solutions, and a message emphasizing states’ rights and judicial restraint could resonate with them.
• Many are not ideologically tied to either progressive or conservative values, making them more open to arguments about personal freedom and federalism.

Disenchanted Conservatives

• Many in the conservative base feel alienated by the mainstream political establishment, particularly when it comes to imposed values.
• These voters, while perhaps not outright hostile to same-sex marriage, are more likely to view the issue as judicial overreach by the left.
• Messages advocating for a return to the Constitution’s original intent, focusing on local governance and cultural influence, may appeal to this group.
• Wary of federal mandates, they may support returning decisions to the states to preserve geographical pockets with traditional conservative values.

Rhetorical Drivers for Reversing Obergefell

Supporters of reversing Obergefell use a reactionary rhetorical framework, using historical references, emotional appeals, and highlighting disillusionment with the judiciary.

• Historical Framing: Supporters draw parallels to past judicial decisions, like Roe v. Wade, positioning Obergefell as similarly unconstitutional and ideologically driven.
• Emotional Appeals: Terms like "traitor" and "betrayal" are used to describe justices perceived as betraying traditional values.
• Disillusionment: Skepticism of the Court's role in safeguarding civil liberties drives discussion. Many say the courts, including SCOTUS, can become a political tool.
• Reactionary Sentiment: Critics say prioritizing LGBTQ initiatives in governance, such as public appointments based on DEI, detracts from more important issues.

National Messaging Approach

The issue of same-sex marriage and overturning Obergefell can be framed as part of a social and legal reckoning following pushback against progressive and woke policies.

• Judicial Fairness: Advocate for a judiciary that upholds the rule of law and ensures decisions are based on legal principles, not political agendas. A message that positions overturning Obergefell as a return to constitutional norms will resonate with conservative and independent voters.
• Legal and Social Stability: Connect the consistency of legal decisions to social and legal fabric of society, maintaining both individual freedom and rule of law. Argue that Obergefell was a judicial overreach, regardless of personal views on gay marriage.
• Voter Trust: Focus on the importance of depoliticized SCOTUS rulings. Emphasize that Obergefell was decided by a politically motivated court rather than by legislative consensus. It is essential to communicate that returning marriage decisions to the states is in line with constitutional principles.

American culture and politics are undergoing a seismic transformation. Many Americans express disillusionment, a demand for justice, and a sense of alienation from a country they no longer recognize. MIG Reports analysis reveals an ongoing struggle to reconcile evolving societal norms with traditional values.

My illusion that America was what I thought it was has been gone for years now. Every major city is getting gross, crime is rising, theft is common, Big Pharma controls both parties with the good cop/bad cop routine, the food is toxic, everyone is addicted to pills, the…

— An0maly (@LegendaryEnergy) May 31, 2024

Disillusionment

• 60% express frustration with political hypocrisy, highlighting institutional decay as a root cause of societal unease.

The widespread erosion of trust in leadership and public institutions is spearheading national sentiment. Across the ideological spectrum, many perceive the justice system and political mechanisms as biased or manipulated by elites for personal gain.

Disillusionment fosters cynicism about the legitimacy of governance, with Americans citing recent events, corruption revelations, and systemic failures as evidence.

Political Partisanship

• 45-50% of discussions have a tribal dynamic, casting one’s own side as defenders of justice and the opposition as harbingers of decay.

The hyper-partisan nature of online discourse perpetuates the divide between ideological camps. Many frame societal issues in binary terms, focusing less on solutions and more on condemning opposing factions. Loyalty to one’s party is often equated with moral integrity, furthering division.

Losing Traditional Values

• 40% of discussions lament the perceived erosion of familiar values, equating this shift with broader societal decline.

Americans want to preserve or restore traditional American values. Many view cultural changes, such as shifts in education or diversity initiatives, as undermining the moral and societal foundations of the nation. The rapid pace of these changes exacerbates feelings of alienation.

Justice and Corruption

• 47% worry about accountability and the erosion of legal integrity, framing these issues as emblematic of a failing system.

The conversation often circles back to issues of fairness and accountability. Many feel that justice is selectively applied, favoring powerful figures while ordinary citizens face harsher consequences. This perceived imbalance fuels narratives of systemic corruption and demands for transparency.

Identity Crisis and Alienation

• 65% of discussions touch on American identity, with feelings of disconnection and a desire to clarify what defines the nation.

Americans increasing talk about, "not recognizing America." This reflects a deeper identity crisis, grappling with rapid cultural and political shifts. Generational divides and ideological conflicts further intensify this alienation, with many struggling to reconcile their vision of America with its evolving reality.

Take note of the people on the street cheering him on—this kind of behavior is why we have boarded-up towns across America.

In just 48 days things will change… pic.twitter.com/6f4g1PrPb7

— Civil Disco (@Civil_Disco) December 3, 2024

Emotional Complexity

Some discussions are more introspective and emotionally complex. There are tensions between personal sympathies and ethical expectations, particularly when discussing issues like political favoritism or perceived injustices.

For example, familial loyalty versus public morality emerges as a recurring theme. Many grapples with progressive social and moral obligations which place pressure on traditional family norms and relationships.

Divisive Media

Media narratives play a significant role in shaping these discussions. Many distrust media coverage, questioning its accuracy and the motivations of legacy institutions. This distrust exacerbates divisions, as echo chambers reinforce pre-existing biases and narratives.

Historical Analogies

Some discuss historical comparisons, likening current frustrations to the revolutionary sentiments of America’s founding. This creates a desire for systemic change, often described in terms of a moral or political revival.

Asians de-assimilate. The first generation is much more positive about America than their kids are, and older groups (eg Vietnamese) are more pro-America than newer ones (eg Indians). Every political issue with Asians gets worse with time by default, not better. pic.twitter.com/GZx7t7K7Iv

— arctotherium (@arctotherium42) September 29, 2024

Reasons Behind the Trends

Political and Cultural Shifts

The rapid evolution of progressive norms—particularly around issues of justice, race, and gender—provokes strong reactions from those who see these changes as undermining traditional values. For many, this woke transformation represents not progress but erosion.

Polarized Media Ecosystem

Partisan media amplifies ideological divides, creating echo chambers that reinforce existing narratives. As a result, discussions often focus on critiquing the "other side" rather than engaging in constructive dialogue.

Perceived Elitism

Americans increasingly believe the system is manipulated by elites for their own benefit, deepening feelings of disillusionment. Many view this as evidence of a broader societal failure, where the average citizen’s concerns are ignored in favor of maintaining power structures.

The redesign of American society over the last 15 years in basically every sphere of life was purposely done to remove your sense of connection with places and things as a reset for the new world they are manufacturing.

Every rebrand, every corporate redesign, Every new…

— Paul (@WomanDefiner) August 14, 2024

This Thanksgiving, as families across the country gather around the table, there are signs of profound cultural and social shifts. The nuclear family, once central to American life, has become the subject of intense public debate, sparking both concern and hope.

Tectonic shifts in the cultural milieu resonate particularly during the holiday season, a time traditionally associated with family unity, reflection, and shared values. Yet, in many households, the reality of strained family dynamics and political division casts a shadow over the celebrations.

MSNBC host Joy Reid: Stay away from pro Trump family members since they ENDED democracy, may turn you in pic.twitter.com/3v1UGKeSdT

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) November 22, 2024

A Holiday at Odds with Itself

Thanksgiving has long symbolized the ideals of togetherness and gratitude. However, as political polarization deepens, traditional ideals are increasingly tested.

• Many Americans report tension at family gatherings, where differing political beliefs create tense conversations
• Rifts at times overshadow familial bonds, causing strife and alienation.
• Online, Americans discuss the holiday season as becoming a battleground of ideological clashes and a fragmenting of traditional family structures.

Family conflicts are exacerbated by the ongoing breakdown of traditional family structures. The rise in single-parent households, declining marriage rates, declining fertility rates, and an emphasis on friends over familial interdependence contribute to a sense of social fragmentation.

The Decline of the Nuclear Family

The nuclear family—long a symbol of stability and continuity—faces significant changes in modern society. Many say contributing factors include:

• Marriage rates dropping
• Fertility rates at historic lows
• Nontraditional families becoming increasingly common
• Millennials and younger people prioritizing careers and independence over family

Many Americans attribute these changes to progressive ideologies that challenge traditional gender roles and redefine family.

• Some on the left view these shifts as positive and inclusive.
• Others express concern they undermine social cohesion and stability provided by the nuclear family.
• Online conversations highlight the consequences of these trends on societal well-being, mental health, and social atomization.

Economic and Social Pressures

Economic realities further complicate the picture.

• People cite rising costs of housing, childcare, and education as a hinderance to family formation for younger generations.
• For many, the financial burden of raising children or supporting extended family members adds to the stress of an already fragmented environment.
• Mental health challenges also exacerbate feelings of isolation and societal pressures, creating barriers to family building.

During Thanksgiving, these issues often become more pronounced, highlighting the struggles people face in modern life.

Polarization at the Table

Political division has also become a defining feature of the modern holiday experience.

• Families with differing ideological perspectives often struggle to find common ground, leading to heated debates or estrangement.
• Discussions around immigration, social justice, or economic policy frequently spill into personal relationships.

This polarization challenges the traditional role of holidays as a unifying force. Many Americans express nostalgia for a time when political differences could be set aside during family gatherings.

My parents are MSNBC liberals who think Trump is a paid Kremlin asset.

I’m ultra MAGA.

Know what Thanksgiving will be like this year?

.

.

It will be great, because we’re normal people who love our family more than we care about politics.

It’s not that hard, folks.

— Robert Sterling (@RobertMSterling) November 11, 2024

A Cultural Renewal in Progress

Amid these challenges, there are signs of a cultural reevaluation.

• A growing number of Americans are advocating for a return to family-centered values, viewing the nuclear family as a stabilizing force in society.
• Grassroots movements, faith-based initiatives, and a conservative resurgence are championing family and rebuilding community ties.

With cultural tides turning, many express hope for a return to traditional norms. They say America has rejected progressive, woke ideology. Many also claim these social movements are to blame for social isolation and mental health crises. Returning to core American values and building families, many say, could be on the horizon with a right leaning cultural renaissance.