Democratic responses to Allan Lichtman’s "13 Keys" election predictions and their failure to capture public sentiment accurately. In the aftermath of Trump’s decisive victory, Democrats continue to grapple with their understanding of the loss. Meanwhile, broader political developments expose a charged environment of frustration, speculation, and party tension.

While Lichtman’s forecasts remain a focal point, discussions touch on immigration, national safety, and leadership accountability, showing a party at odds with itself and its strategy.

I am not joking when I say this is one of the greatest clips I've ever seen on a cable news show.

Cenk completely destroys Alan Lichtman by pointing out that his keys to the White House were wrong and Lichtman responds by accusing him of blasphemy.😂pic.twitter.com/4G1YF3cxTy

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) November 19, 2024

Come on Lichtman, you didn't have to quit X. People will have stopped making fun of you in a year or so. pic.twitter.com/JuAy4uwQet

— MAZE (@mazemoore) November 20, 2024

Democratic Trends

• Trust in party leadership and political analysis like Lichtman’s "13 Keys" is waning, reflecting broader doubts about the Democratic Party’s understanding of public sentiment.
• Many commenters say the party's messaging does not resonate with Americans. They complain about woke ideologies and a lack of relatable figures in leadership.
• Voters worry about inflation, wages, and the overall economy. This, along with safety concerns, worsens critiques of Democratic governance and priorities.
• Despite frustration, some Democrats call for unity and constructive dialogue. They promote collective progress instead of finger pointing and blame.

Discussion Themes

Democrats are desperately searching for the cause of their catastrophic loss, trying to pinpoint explanations. Many were shocked by the inaccuracy of predictions like Lichtman’s or polls like Ann Selzer’s, creating confusion about which issues turned the tide.

Outrage and Accountability

Democratic frustration touches on the failures of leadership, pollsters, and analysis. Leadership figures like Secretary Mayorkas and Director Wray are criticized for actions voters feel are evasive or insufficient.

Statements such as "Mayorkas and Wray’s refusal to testify is an outrage" illustrate a sense of betrayal and neglect of responsibility. These sentiments echo broader calls for resignations and reforms within party leadership.

Safety and Immigration Concerns

Safety issues, particularly those tied to immigration, feature prominently in postmortem discussions. Tragedies involving fentanyl and violent crimes committed by illegal immigrants dominate narratives.

Comments like "Every day, 350 Americans die from cartel-imported fentanyl" link these crises to perceived Democratic policy failures, reflecting a growing anxiety about national security.

Speculation and Distrust in Leadership

Speculative language creates a tone of distrust toward Democratic leadership. Comments like, "Biden clearly does not want this war to end" convey dissatisfaction with foreign policy decisions and perceived ulterior motives. This speculation extends to domestic governance, with many calling for transparency and prioritizing voters’ concerns.

Democratic Friction and Calls for Reform

Party divisions are growing, with abundant critiques of Democratic leadership and party strategy. Terms like "profound failure" highlight dissatisfaction with the party’s current trajectory. Voters want "self-reflection" and appeals to "good people" in leadership positions point to a desire for transformative change.

Voters voice confusion and frustration with leadership. However, the media and the political class still seem unwilling or unable to accurately assess the strategic failures which led to Harris’s historic loss.

Watching Allen Lichtman completely unravel as he realizes Kamala is going to lose Pennsylvania is priceless comedy. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/KdsCk0mpG7

— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) November 8, 2024

Reactions of the reversal of Jussie Smollett's conviction are divided around miscarried justice, race, and accountability. The Illinois Supreme Court overturned Smollett’s conviction on five counts of felony disorderly conduct filing false police reports. The case was over a 2019 hoax hate crime Smollett committed in which he staged an attack by alleged MAGA supporters who he claimed beat him up and put a noose around his neck. It was later revealed that he fabricated the whole thing and paid two men to stage the imaginary beatdown. After being convicted for his hoax, the reversal was due to legal technicalities involving his original prosecution.

The court found issues with procedural fairness and conflicts of interest, particularly regarding the involvement of the special prosecutor. This raises questions about the Illinois justice system and potential corruption in Smollett’s favor.

Did Obama improperly intervene to convince the Illinois Supreme Court to overturn the convictions against Jussie Smollett? A fair question especially since Michelle Obama was previously successful in getting Kim Foxx to drop those same charges. Equal protection under the law does…

— Rod Blagojevich (@realBlagojevich) November 21, 2024

Sentiment Patterns

Democrats

• Empathy for Smollett and marginalized individuals: 35%
• Outrage at perceived injustice and institutional failure: 30%
• Political framing and opposition to Republican exploitation: 25%
• Calls for accountability and systemic change: 10%

General Audience

• Outrage at Smollett and the justice system: 65%
• Empathy for Smollett: 20%
• Mixed or neutral reactions: 15%

Democratic Perspectives

Among Democrats, 35% express empathy for Smollett, framing him as symbolic of struggles against systemic racism and injustice. This narrative often ties his case to identity politics, including his race and LGBTQ+ status. Many commenters view Smollett as representing marginalized communities being mistreated by a flawed justice system. Some even suggest the overturned conviction exonerates Smollett.

General Audience

Only 20% of the overall commentary about Smollett expresses empathy. While some accept Smollett as a victim of systemic pressures, the majority sentiment criticizes him for perpetrating a hoax hate crime and perpetuating damaging racial stereotypes. Overall, Americans are more skeptical and critical, saying Smollett escaped justice on a technicality.

Jussie Smollett's hate crime hoax conviction was overturned by the Illinois Supreme Court...

So apparently it's ok to lie about being attacked by Trump supporters and waste thousands of dollars of police time in Chicago.

— Tim Young (@TimRunsHisMouth) November 21, 2024

Political Framing

Democrats frame the case as a political maneuver, with 25% criticizing Republicans for exploiting Smollett’s situation to stoke racial and social divisions. They voice overall distrust of conservative motives in discussions around justice and equity.

More general discussion is less focused on political framing and more evenly split along partisan lines. Criticism of the justice system centers on failures of accountability rather than perceived political exploitation. Many suspect corrupt motives among those involved, leading to a failure of justice.

Outrage and Accountability

Around 30% of Democrats express outrage over systemic failures rather than Smollett himself. They want reform and to address structural inequities in the justice system, positioning Smollett’s case as a symptom of larger systemic issues.

Outside of Democratic circles, outrage dominates reactions. 65% of comments criticize Smollett for undermining public trust. They portray him as typical of progressive elites with a victimhood complex. They also blame cases like Smollett’s for a perceived decline in law enforcement integrity and accountability.

Race and Justice

Race is a central theme for Democrats, with discussions frequently critiquing systemic racism in the justice system. Smollett’s case is framed as part of a historical pattern of inequities, underscoring the need for systemic change. This narrative connects Smollett’s reversal to larger movements advocating for racial and social justice.

While race also features prominently in the general discourse, the narrative is critical of Smollett. Many commenters argue his actions harm genuine efforts to address racial injustice, framing his case as counterproductive to progress.

Media Criticism

Democrats are less critical of the media’s role in amplifying Smollett’s hoax and painting him as sympathetic. This group focuses on race and injustice over how the case is portrayed in mainstream media.

The general audience criticizes media sensationalism, suggesting coverage of Smollett’s hoax exacerbates division and advances partisan agendas. This distrust reflects broader concerns about the role of the media in influencing public discourse.

After Rep. Matt Gaetz suddenly withdrew his name from nomination for Attorney General, president-elect Trump named former Florida AG Pam Bondi as his replacement. Many are speculating that Gaetz’s controversial image in Congress would have prevented him from being confirmed. Republicans are more supportive of Bondi, but there is still pushback from those who object to a partisan nomination.

Matt Gaetz

• 40% of voters criticize his nomination and withdrawal, citing lack of transparency and ethical concerns.
• 35% defend Gaetz, framing allegations as politically motivated attacks.
• 25% are neutral or focused on systemic GOP issues.

Pam Bondi

• 45% of all voters praise her competence and alignment with conservative values.
• 40% are concerned about her partisanship and potential to polarize the justice system.
• 15% focus on frustrations with the political climate rather than on Bondi herself.

While Bondi likely faces fewer concerns over qualifications and ethics, there is still significant pushback among some segments of the political class. Many in the GOP hope Bondi will be a candidate with experience while still appealing to conservatives and avoiding the controversies Gaetz faced.

Gaetz’s Withdrawal

Gaetz’s withdrawal followed growing pressure and scrutiny over the House Ethics Committee’s decision not to release its findings. While Gaetz argued his withdrawal was to avoid distracting from the Trump-Vance transition, public reactions speculate about other reasons.

Voter Reactions

• There are speculations that Gaetz resigned from his House seat and from the AG nomination to avoid deeper investigations into his past behavior.
• Many voters want transparency, viewing the Ethics Committee withholding its report as emblematic of broader accountability issues in politics.
• Defenders describe Gaetz as a victim of politically motivated attacks, citing the lack of formal DoJ charges as foiling accusations.
• Others are simply fatigued with political scandals, emphasizing systemic reform over individual controversies.

Bondi’s Nomination

Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi is a seasoned prosecutor, with many viewing her as a more acceptable alternative to Gaetz. Her loyalty to Trump during his impeachment bolsters her standing with the MAGA and GOP base.

Voter Reactions

• Most conservatives see Bondi as a strong, capable leader with the legal expertise to navigate a federal position. Her alignment with Trump is viewed as an asset.
• Critics worry Bondi’s partisan history could deepen divisions in the DoJ. Democrats and RINOs have concerns over her role in high-profile, ideologically charged cases.
• Some focus on broader frustrations with partisan politics and media narratives around Trump's nominations rather than Bondi's fitness for an appointment.

Supporters say Bondi will be a positive alternative, bringing competence and reliability. Her experience minimizes risks of personal scandal while reinforcing the party’s focus on justice and conservative values. Many are more optimistic about her potential to be successfully confirmed compared to Gaetz.

Implications for Trump’s Cabinet

Public reactions to Gaetz and Bondi underscore the tension between populist MAGA energy and establishment figures. While Bondi is more broadly acceptable cabinet appointment choice, some in the MAGA core lament Gaetz’s personal and ethical challenges, saying he would have been the perfect anti-establishment choice. This group acknowledges that Gaetz has alienated many in both chambers of Congress. This, they say, makes it difficult for him to be confirmed, regardless of the outcomes of allegations against him.

MAGA Requirements

• Transparency remains a critical issue for voters across the board. People want accountability for politicians, though for various reasons among the anti-establishment and the political class.
• Bondi’s nomination offers the GOP an opportunity to project competence and law-and-order principles, appealing to a wider group of voters.
• Some MAGA voters insist Gaetz’s nomination was a “4D chess” move by Trump to ascertain loyalty among the political class.