A recent Media Intelligence Group (MIG) report on public sentiment regarding the US economy reveals a nation split along partisan lines. Supporters praise the administration for allegedly reducing unemployment and achieving GDP growth. But critics blame Biden for rising inflation and interest rates that threaten the middle class.
One sentiment that crosses the political divide is that many people feel their financial situations are becoming strained in the current economy. The report highlights Americans worries about the impact of continuously climbing interest rates on mortgages and car loans.
Today auto loan defaults are surging, and mortgage rates hover around 7.5%. Households are struggling with the higher threshold for borrowing. Despite the administration touting positive economic indicators like a 4.9% GDP growth in Q3 2022, many of the voting population still express fear and uncertainty. MIG data shows that Joe Biden's approval rating dropped to a concerning 35% during the second week of October.
Biden critics point to inflation reducing real incomes and an accumulating public debt burden as indicators of economic mismanagement. But Biden supporters credit policies like the Inflation Reduction Act for spurring investment and job creation. In general, sentiment appears aligned with political affiliations but the overall sentiment towards the economy in 2023 is negative.
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The Democratic Party’s economic messaging during the Biden administration was that “everything is okay” and “it’s not as bad as you think.” Since the election, rhetoric has begun to shift in tone and focus. With Trump back in office, Democrats are remembering the importance of acknowledging the voters’ plight in a down economy.
Voter Sentiment
MIG Reports data from recent online discussion shows the inverse patterns of public perception among Democrats and Republicans.
Jobs
70% of Democratic-leaning voters are positive about jobs under Biden.
68% of Republicans are critical, citing illegal immigrating competition government job growth.
Economy
30% of Democrats praise Biden’s economy, citing healthcare and education funding.
20% voice dissatisfaction with inflation and policy mismanagement.
65% of Republicans are critical of Biden’s economy, including inflation and wage stagnation.
Trade
70% of Democratic voters worry about Trump’s tariff plans leading to trade wars.
65% of Republican voters support aggressive trade policies to correct imbalances.
Post-Election Rhetoric
Fiscal Responsibility
Since November, Democratic messaging has shifted toward acknowledging fiscal concerns, including national debt, which consumes nearly 30% of government revenue. Voter frustration with inefficient spending, particularly on foreign aid and disaster management, has driven calls for greater accountability. Comparatively, pre-election rhetoric often downplayed fiscal mismanagement, focusing instead on equity-driven narratives.
“America Last” Social Safety Nets
Democrats consistently champion social safety nets like unemployment benefits and healthcare programs. Advocating for unemployment benefits for illegal immigrants draws sharp criticism from Republicans, independents, and some disenchanted Democrats.
Post-election, their rhetoric is focusing on defending these programs against Republican critiques. However, voter sentiment reveals growing dissatisfaction with how Biden has implemented and prioritized these policies.
Equity-Focused Policies
The Democratic push for taxing the wealthy and funding climate initiatives continues, but voter dissatisfaction with delayed tangible benefits is growing. Progressive rhetoric on equity contrasts sharply with middle-class frustrations over rising living costs and inflation.
Strategic Shifts in Messaging
Inflation and Cost-of-Living
Inflation remains a pivotal voter issue. With Biden leaving office and Trump entering, Democrats are starting to adopt a more realist stance. They are more willing to acknowledge the reality of inflation under Trump 2.0. This contrasts with pre-election narratives, where Democrats minimized inflationary concerns.
Trade and Global Economics
Democratic fear about tariffs and trade wars brings rhetoric around potential consumer price increases. Pre-election messaging often emphasized balanced trade, even as Biden continued many of the trade policies from Trump 1.0. However, sentiment shows Republicans are successfully framing tariffs as necessary for economic nationalism.
Jobs and Employment
Job creation under Biden is a central Democratic talking point as they tout more than 250,000 nonfarm payroll increases in December 2024 and a 4.1% unemployment rate. However, Republican critiques linking job market struggles to policies benefiting illegal workers and job growth from government jobs is causing a pivot to acknowledgingjob displacement.
Contrasts with Republican Messaging
Republicans maintain focus on fiscal conservatism and economic nationalism. They emphasize inflation control, debt reduction, and middle-class tax relief. This contrasts with progressive idealism and perceptions of rampant spending under Biden.
Recommendations
Capitalize on Inflation Concerns: Highlight Democratic unwillingness to address inflation and jobs under Biden—connect this to middle-class hardships.
Emphasize Fiscal Conservatism: Contrast Democratic spending inefficiencies with Republican calls for debt reduction and the goals of DOGE.
Push for Economic Nationalism: Frame aggressive trade policies as a defense of American jobs and sovereignty.
In the days prior to Donald Trump’s second inauguration, his ongoing legal challenges remained present in online voter discussions. Multiple cases, from the hush money scandal to accusations of election interference, continue to divide Americans.
Recent Legal Developments
Hush Money Case Sentencing: On Jan. 10, 2025, Trump was sentenced in the hush money case, with Judge Juan Merchan granting him an unconditional discharge. This decision, which ensures that Trump faces no jail time or probation, is a significant legal win.
Georgia RICO Case: Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis was dismissed from prosecuting Trump’s election interference case due to a conflict of interest. Though Willis appealed this ruling, many believe the case is essentially dead.
Special Counsel Report: Special Counsel Jack Smith released a report detailing how Trump’s actions surrounding the 2020 election could have led to a conviction had he lost the election. For most, the report only confirms their beliefs either about Smith's corruption or Trump’s guilt.
Presidential Immunity: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that former presidents have immunity from prosecution for official actions, impacting Trump’s legal defense in ongoing cases.
Voter Sentiment
MIG Reports data shows:
42% of public sentiment includes skepticism toward charges against Trump, often framing them as politically motivated attacks.
31%supportlegal action and scrutiny of Trump, emphasizing the importance of accountability saying, “no one is above the law.”
27% express indifference or fatigue, with many Americans tired of the continuous legal drama.
A Weaponized Justice System (42%)
Much of the public concedes that Trump’s legal challenges are largely politically motivated, especially among MAGA voters. The notion of a “witch hunt” persists, with many Trump loyalists seeing the legal system as weaponized by the Democratic establishment. Developments like Fani Willis being disqualified reinforce this narrative.
Trump defenders argue most of the legal actions are designed to weaken him politically, especially prior to the 2024 election. They frame him as a victim of establishment elites politicizing the justice system to maintain their power and undermine the will of the people.
Support for Legal Accountability (31%)
Critics say Trump must face the consequences of his actions, regardless of political affiliation. Those who support indictments argue the rule of law should apply to everyone equally, regardless of status or political power.
Many in this group express frustration with Trump’s repeated claims of victimization, viewing his legal troubles as the inevitable consequences of his actions. This group is often composed of Democrats, progressives, and “never Trump” Republicans.
Indifference or Fatigue (27%)
A third of the public feel resignation or apathy toward Trump’s ongoing legal battles. They say the cases have become a monotonous feature of the political landscape, contributing to a growing cynicism about the effectiveness of the legal system. Some view these trials as distractions that will not change Trump’s political trajectory.
This sentiment is particularly pronounced among independents and moderates. They are weary of the endless media coverage and complex legal arguments. For this group, partisan fights and accusations are business as usual. They voice little expectation that anything will come of the feeble and crumbling cases.
Partisan Views
As expected, Trump’s legal troubles divide public opinion along partisan lines. Among Republicans, skepticism reigns. MAGA voters distrust the prosecutors and judges involved in Trump’s cases. They particularly view Fani Willis’s dismissal as a victory, seeing her as obviously corrupt.
For Democrats, hampering and punishing Trump is of utmost priority. They talk of upholding democratic norms, though heated rhetoric and character assassination betrays hostile motivations, regardless of the strength of legal arguments.
Independents are mixed, with frustration about the ongoing legal drama and the lack of clear resolution. Some many voters are simply exhausted by the continuous cycle of legal issues and media coverage.
Four years after the January 6 Capitol event, online discussion about J6 prisoners continues to ignite debate. Social media reveals public opinion as the nation transitions from the Biden administration to Trump 2.0.
Trump needs to pardon all J6 prisoners on day one.
Those who support January 6 defendants frame them as patriots and victims of a biased justice system, often labeling them as “political prisoners” or “martyrs.” They frequently compare J6 prisoners to activists in other movements, such as Black Lives Matter (BLM) and pro-Palestinian demonstrations. They say disparate legal consequences for leftist activists reveal a double standard in the justice system.
Critics of January 6 emphasize accountability, portraying the prisoners as criminals who sought to undermine democracy. They emphasize the importance of upholding the rule of law to protect democratic institutions, often labeling J6 participants as “seditionists” and “insurrectionists.” Online discussions among critics of J6 defendants focus their rhetoric on “democracy” and “protecting institutions,” withholding any defense of leftist protesters committing similar acts.
🧵 Barbara F. Walter is the author of HOW CIVIL WARS START. She is a Professor at UC - San Diego and has consulted for the World Bank, DOD, State Dept, the UN, and the J6 Committee 👈. She is also a permanent member of the CFR. pic.twitter.com/CuNo0pwfPa
Neutral or analytical commentators tend to examine systemic implications, questioning whether legal proceedings are being handled equitably and what these events mean for future governance and protests.
Victimhood and Heroism
Sentiment Analysis
40% of discussion includes heroism narratives
30% includes victimhood narratives
Supporters of J6 prisoners often valorize their actions, likening them to historical resistance movements against tyranny. Terms like “martyrs” and “freedom fighters” are common, reflecting a belief that they stood against government overreach.
Critics frame the prisoners as individuals who engaged in unlawful activities for political gain. They say attempts to lionize their actions erode respect for democratic processes and diminish the gravity of their offenses.
Distrust in Institutions
A pervasive theme across discussions is skepticism about institutional integrity. Many say the prosecutions of J6 participants are politically motivated, exposing a retribution against conservatives rather than seeking justice. Many include mainstream media and the judiciary in their suspicion, with accusations that narratives are manipulated to delegitimize Trump’s supporters.
This sentiment aligns strongly with broader conservative critiques of establishment institutions, reinforcing perceptions that the system is fundamentally skewed against their values.
Reminder that J6 was used an excuse to deny electors their chance to contest a blatantly fraudulent 2020 election.
J6 was also used to justify censoring/banning Trump, and many of his supporters.
Then they tried to put Trump in jail over J6 and tried to prevent him from running… pic.twitter.com/iChdlR6Wg0
51% of those discussing January 6 support pardons.
As Trump reenters office, expectations from voters are divided. Trump voters overwhelmingly anticipate that pardoning J6 prisoners will be one of his early acts. They see this as restoring justice and a symbolic rejection of Biden-era policies.
Critics fear pardons could embolden future disruptive movements, undermining respect for the rule of law. They also caution against the precedent of politicized pardons, warning it could exacerbate divisions and destabilize governance.
Connected Issues
Discussions about J6 prisoners often intersect with other major political themes, including immigration, taxation, and governance. Voters draw connections between the perceived treatment of J6 participants and broader dissatisfaction with governmental effectiveness. For instance, some use J6 discussions as a lens to critique federal policies on unrelated issues, further emphasizing distrust in leadership.
Regional and Temporal Variations
Sentiment around J6 prisoners varies by region, reflecting local political dynamics. Conservative regions are more likely to support pardons for defendants and advocate for releasing prisoners. Liberal areas emphasize accountability and justice. The discourse ebbs and flows with Trump’s political activity, highlighting his influence on public sentiment.
Predictive Analysis
Discussions about January 6 will likely be closely tied to Trump’s political trajectory. If Trump prioritizes pardoning J6 participants, it will galvanize his base, solidifying their support. However, this action is likely to deepen divides, prompting backlash from critics who view such moves as undermining justice.
The J6 discourse may also serve as a rallying point for broader conservative activism, reinforcing skepticism toward institutional power. Continued focus on these events may energize opposition movements, emphasizing accountability and democratic integrity. Ultimately, the trajectory of this conversation will depend on how effectively political leaders navigate these divides and address underlying concerns about fairness, governance, and unity.
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