Democratic Voters are Swinging Toward Trump on Immigration

February 05, 2025 Democratic Voters are Swinging Toward Trump on Immigration  image

Key Takeaways

  • Americans largely support empowering ICE to conduct raids and deportations, chipping away at Democratic opposition.
  • Republicans overwhelmingly support the Trump administration’s agenda to secure the border and deport illegal immigrants.
  • While around half of Democrats discussing this issue condemn ICE, partisan views are not starkly inverse as with many other topics. 

Our Methodology

Demographics

All Voters

Sample Size

10,000

Geographical Breakdown

National

Time Period

3 Days

MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article. 

With the new administration ramping up deportations and ICE enforcement, online discourse is also oscillating. Unlike many issues where Democratic and Republican views are nearly inverse, the divide is less fervent on the border. While Republicans are strongly unified in favor of strict enforcement, Democrats are split between progressive activists and moderates who recognize the necessity of law and order. This implies national trends moving to favor stronger borders.

Republicans Unanimously Call for Enforcement

Among Republican voters, support for deportations and ICE operations is overwhelming. Approximately 70-75% of Republicans favor aggressive enforcement measures, considering them essential to national security and sovereignty. They don’t view deportation as an ethical dilemma but as a matter of legal enforcement. The top sentiments include:

  • Border security as national security: Deportations and ICE crackdowns are extensions of a broader strategy to maintain U.S. sovereignty.
  • Deportations as non-negotiable: Repeat criminal offenders like Javier Morales-Zamora, whose criminal history is prolific, fuel frustration with lenient immigration policies.
  • Expanding detention capacity: The proposed 30,000-bed facility at Guantanamo Bay has 60% support among Republicans, reflecting eagerness for mass deportations.
  • Defunding NGOs: Many view non-governmental organizations as facilitating illegal immigration. Kristi Noem’s announcement that DHS will cut funding to groups accused of aiding unlawful border crossings has strong approval.

Republicans see immigration through a law-and-order lens, not a humanitarian one. Deportation is a necessary step to protect communities and deter future illegal crossings. They see the Biden administration’s rollback of enforcement measures as reckless and a threat to national security.

On the political right, deporting illegal immigrants with criminal records is a fundamental priority. Cases like that of Javier Morales-Zamora have become rallying points for stricter enforcement. Morales-Zamora, an illegal immigrant with multiple criminal convictions—including DUI, reckless driving, theft, hit-and-run, and resisting arrest—remained in the U.S. despite these offenses due to legal delays and sanctuary policies.

Many believe this case epitomizes the failures of Democratic policies. Rather than being deported after his first criminal offense, Morales-Zamora was allowed to stay and reoffend multiple times.

In response to cases like Morales-Zamora's, Republicans overwhelmingly support:

  • Harsher penalties for illegal immigrants with criminal records.
  • Eliminating legal loopholes that allow repeat offenders to stay in the country.
  • Expanding ICE’s authority to act without interference from local sanctuary laws.

Democrats are Split and Lacking Consensus

While around 50% of Democrats oppose aggressive ICE tactics, the depth of opposition varies.

  • Hard opposition - 40%: Progressive activists see ICE as an institution rooted in systemic racism. They call for abolishing ICE, stopping deportations entirely, and implementing blanket amnesty.
  • Mixed views - 35%: Moderates are sympathetic to concerns about family separation, but this group acknowledges criminal deportations are necessary. Many reject sanctuary city policies when they shield individuals with violent criminal records.
  • Cautious opposition - 25%: Democrats in competitive swing states view the party’s stance on immigration is a liability. They say open-border policies are politically toxic.

The Democratic base's internal conflict makes it difficult to counter Republicans on immigration. Unlike the GOP’s clear position, Democratic messaging fluctuates between humanitarian rhetoric and selective enforcement, leaving them vulnerable to Republican attacks on national security and public safety.

Border States vs. Sanctuary Status

Geography plays a critical role in shaping attitudes on ICE and deportations:

  • Red Border states (Texas, Arizona): Voters here overwhelmingly support deportations. The link between illegal immigration and cartel violence is a major concern. Events like the shootout in Fronton, Texas reinforce calls for stronger ICE enforcement and border militarization.
  • Sanctuary states (California, New York, Illinois): These states have the strongest anti-ICE sentiment. Local governments often obstruct federal enforcement, and voter sentiment leans toward limiting cooperation with deportation efforts.
  • Swing states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia): Here, immigration is a mixed issue. While strict enforcement is unpopular among urban voters, suburban and rural populations express concerns about crime, job competition, and resource allocation.

Asymmetry in Partisan Divide

Unlike other polarizing topics, the deportation debate is not an exact inverse between parties. While Republicans are nearly unanimous in favor of strong enforcement, Democratic opinions are inching closer to support.

  • Republican unity (70-75% support strict deportation policies)
  • Democratic disunity (50% oppose ICE, but with internal splits)

This suggests Republicans cans take advantage of sentiment tailwinds to:

  • Stay aggressive on enforcement messaging: The numbers show clear public support for deporting criminal illegal aliens, securing the border, and defunding NGOs.
  • Frame deportation as public safety, not just immigration: Linking illegal immigration to violent crime and cartel activity strengthens the GOP’s case.
  • Exploit Democratic divisions: The fractures within the Democratic coalition make immigration a strong wedge issue heading into 2025.

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