Trump’s Record NH Primary Win Extends Lead Heading into Nevada

January 24, 2024 Trump’s Record NH Primary Win Extends Lead Heading into Nevada image

Key Takeaways

  • Trump secured a decisive victory in the New Hampshire GOP primary, winning 74% of registered GOP votes and surpassing the total vote count of the 2016 primary.
  • Nikki Haley, while impressing with independents and winning 65% of their support, faces challenges in the GOP primary.
  • There are increasing negative sentiments and calls for her to drop out, fueled by perceptions of her as a “swamp shill” and doubts about her chances against Trump.

Our Methodology

Demographics

Republicans

Sample Size

500

Geographical Breakdown

National

Time Period

30 days

MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article.

New Hampshire - What Happened

The New Hampshire GOP primary demonstrated a clear victory for Donald Trump, with his total votes exceeding the entire vote count of the 2016 primary.

Trump's overwhelming victory can be attributed to his strong ground effort and appeal among registered GOP voters. He won 74% of the registered GOP vote, demonstrating his enduring popularity within the Republican party. Conversely, Haley's campaign impressed with independents, winning 65% of their support. This suggests that Haley's message appeals to a broader base, potentially including some Democrats.

While it's hard to ascertain from the data provided whether Democrats were supporting Haley, her strong performance among independents suggests some cross-over appeal. Similarly, it's unclear which candidate attracted libertarian voters, but Trump's strong showing among registered GOP voters suggests he may have been their preferred choice.

What Was On The Ballot?

Without specific polling data on the top issues for Trump and Haley voters, it is difficult to determine what their key priorities were. However, given Trump's past campaigns and his base of support, it is reasonable to guess that issues like immigration, trade, and a strong economy were likely important to his supporters. Haley's supporters, on the other hand, may have been more attracted to her international experience and more traditional conservative stances.

It’s also worth noting that some comments suggest a portion of Libertarian voters might have supported Trump over Haley. This is indicative of Trump’s appeal to anti-establishment voters who prioritize issues such as individual liberties and small government, which are hallmarks of Libertarian ideology. The top three issues appear to be:

Trump

  • Anti-establishment
  • More conservative governance
  • America-first policies

Haley

  • Anti-Trump, Pro-Establishment
  • Traditional GOP
  • Challenging Trump’s control

However, there is a growing call among some voters for Haley to drop out of the primary. The argument is that the money being spent on her campaign could be better utilized in other crucial races, such as those for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, or gubernatorial seats. Trump is running unopposed in the Nevada Caucus and presumed to win all 26 delegates.

Nevada - What’s Next

Donald Trump's campaign has been marked by significant successes, making him the first non-sitting Republican candidate to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire. His campaign has effectively mobilized his base and resonated with voters, resulting in tangible victories. Nikki Haley's campaign appears to be facing challenges, despite a surge of Democratic votes in the Republican primary in New Hampshire. This perception of Haley as a 'swamp shill', as reflected in public sentiments, has also been detrimental to her campaign.

Trump vs Haley (Nevada)

How Do Voters See It?

Negative sentiments surrounding Haley's campaign have been increasing, with many believing that she has little chance of beating Trump and that her continued presence in the race is damaging to the GOP. These sentiments are further fueled by the belief that she will likely lose the primary in South Carolina, her home state.

In contrast, Trump's campaign is surrounded by mostly positive themes, with supporters praising his leadership and his potential to secure a landslide victory. Despite some criticisms about his focus on loyalty, his support levels seem to be consistently high.

Raising Trump support

  • Strong leadership
  • America-first policies
  • Electability in November

Lowering Trump support

  • Threat of potential indictments
  • Perceived shift from traditional GOP values

Raising Haley support

  • Fresh start in the GOP

Lowering Haley support

  • Endorsing candidates against Trump
  • Divisiveness within the party, Democrat in disguise
  • Refusal to drop out

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