Plummeting Approval for Newsom’s Crime Policies

Newsom is frequently cast in public discussion as being out of touch and ineffective in his handling of California’s crime issue. Discussion online spiked as a result of a video clip where Newsom says he was blamed for a shoplifting incident to his face. People find his story either ironic or fitting. Californians say Newsom’s story shows a failure to address crime and shoplifting effectively.

• On the topic of “crime,” Gavin Newsom’s approval score dropped to a 7-day low of 27%.
• His approval bounced back to 44% on the day of his comments as discussion volume surged.
• Following his shoplifting comments, discussion volume related to crime and Newsom doubled.

• Newsom’s support overall, including the topic of “crime,” reached a 7-day low of 40%, including the day his shoplifting comments became public.

What People Are Saying

Online discussions show that people are expressing strong negative sentiment towards Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, regarding the state's crime situation, especially in relation to shoplifting.

• People argue that Newsom's approach to handling crime in California is inefficient and ineffective.
• Californians express frustration and disappointment, citing an increase in taxes, high homelessness, rampant drug use, and uncontrolled crime rates as key issues.
• Many people feel these problems are direct results of Newsom's leadership and policies.
• There is a deep dissatisfaction with increasing instances of shoplifting and the overall crime rate in California.
• There's a sentiment that excessive amounts of tax money are not being used effectively, with some alleging corruption and misuse of funds.
• Many are blaming Newsom for creating an environment that is seen as favoring criminals.

Larger Contributing Issues

Many Californians see the crime increase as one problem among many other larger issues. Overall, the online sentiment towards Gavin Newsom in relation to crime in California is highly critical.

• There are suggestions that Newsom's policies are driving people out of California
• People accuse Newsom of being detached from reality and failing to acknowledge the impact of his policies on small businesses.
• They also argue that insurance companies are pulling out of California due to the rise in crime.
• Californians express a desire for stronger law enforcement, stricter policies towards criminals, and more effective solutions for homelessness and drug addiction.
• There is a belief that economic decline and problems like a failing school system and increased cost of living are causing people to leave California.
• A frequently expressed belief is that California has become excessively liberal under Newsom's leadership, with some labeling it as “communist.”
• Positive sentiments are few and far between, suggesting Newsom is facing significant public backlash over his policies.

Crime and the Border

A primary concern Californians discuss about the border is Newsom's perceived support for “open borders,” which they believe has led to an influx of illegal immigrants in the state. Many people attribute the high crime rates in California to Newsom's alleged failure to effectively control the state borders.

• People express anger and frustration towards Newsom, with some labeling him as a “dangerous person” and a “traitor” to California.
• They accuse him of condoning illegal immigration and even facilitating criminal activities, such as human trafficking and drug trafficking.
• There is also widespread belief that Newsom's border policies have resulted in a surge of crime in the state.
• Critics believe that illegal immigrants contribute to the high crime rates in the state, with some even suggesting that Newsom's administration has turned California into a “criminal haven.”
• Many say Newsom’s neglect of important issues in favor of supporting illegal immigrants is a testament to his inability to effectively govern the state.

National Conversation About the Border

The online discussions about the US border are rife with emotion and conflicting opinions. An underlying theme in these discussions is the perceived failure of both the federal government and the GOP to protect Americans.

Greg Abbott

A key figure in these discussions is Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who is both lauded and criticized for his stance on border control.

• Abbott‘s statement against the Supreme Court's ruling allowing razor wire to be removed from the southern border has sparked fervent responses.
• Supporters applaud his assertion of Texas's rights against what they perceive as a federal government overreach.
• They view the situation at the southern border as an "invasion," expressing fears about illegal immigration and Texas.
• Critics accuse him of fearmongering and of being absent during what he himself has labeled a crisis.

Donald Trump

Another key figure in the national conversation is Donald Trump.

• Many support Trump‘s wall as a means to control immigration, while others see it as an ineffective and divisive measure.
• Critics point out that the wall not only failed to solve the immigration issue but also inadvertently created easy access points for smugglers.
• They further argue that the situation at the border could have been prevented had Trump been competent in his initial attempts to build the wall.

Farmers

American farmers are also highlighted in the discussion, with some Americans praising them for supporting Texas in its efforts to stem the perceived "invasion" at the southern border.

Ilhan Omar

Multiple people express strong negative sentiments towards Representative Ilhan Omar, often linking her to what they perceive as an open-border policy.

• Commentors believe Omar‘s stance threatens national security.
• There are frequent calls for her to be removed from Congress and deported.
• Many are pointing to a perceived lack of allegiance to the US.
• A significant group of Americans seem to identify Omar as a key figure negatively affecting the border situation.

Democrats Overall

There's also a significant, recurring narrative that accuses Democrats of wanting open borders to score political points.

• Some suggest that this is a strategy to attract future voters from among illegal immigrants.
• Others accuse Republicans of creating fear and anger around the issue for their political gain.
• The current administration is frequently criticized for its perceived attempts to allow open borders and endanger the country.

Support for Key Figures Involved in Border Issues

James Lankford

There is no conversation specifically mentioning Sen. Lankford.

• In the last 7 days, Lankford’s average approval was 50%. Today it sits at 49%.

  

Joe Biden

• Many people blame Biden for the influx of illegal immigrants.
• There is criticism of the so-called "Biden-McConnell open borders amnesty bill," which some users feel would only increase illegal immigration.
• Biden’s 7-day average national approval rating was 47%. Today it’s 44%.
• His average approval in swing states over the last 7 days was 42%. Today it’s 42%.

Alejandro Mayorkas

• Some users believe Mayorkas is corrupt and accuse him of breaking the law.
• Calls for his impeachment, claiming he and Biden have committed treason by not fulfilling their oaths of office and endangering American citizens.
• In the last 7 days, Mayorkas’s average approval rating was 45%, and 43% today.

  

Greg Abbott

• There is praise for his efforts to protect the Texas border and his attempts to rally support from other states to address the situation.
• Governor Abbott is seen as a strong leader by many.
• There is some criticism with some attributing the state's immigration issues to his governance.
• Discussion about Abbott's controversial decision to send busloads of immigrants to other states. Some say it’s an attempt to avoid addressing the root of the problem.
• In the last 7 days, Abbott’s average approval rating was 47%. Today it sits at 47%.

With the holiday shopping season approaching, consumers appear conflicted about risking their usual shopping plans amid rising crime rates nationwide.  

What the Data Says 

Media Intelligence Group reports that public discussions reveal an emerging apprehension and caution regarding shopping dangers. 

• Reports of increased theft and organized retail crime in many major cities have been generating headlines all year.  
• Various reports also revealed that retailers lost more than $112 billion in 2022 due to crime.  
• Major brands like Target, Walmart, Nordstrom, Macy's, and others have closed store locations because of increasing theft. 

Now, the danger of in-store criminal activity has people expressing their hesitation to shop during what has traditionally been the heaviest shopping season of the year.  

• Some people argue that positive economic indicators like 2.0% and 2.1% GDP growth in Q1 and Q1 of 2023 point to a hospitable environment for spending.  
• However, concerns also persist about inflation's toll on families’ spending power, making purchases challenging. 

What Americans are Saying 

The MIG report suggests caution rather than fear is the prevailing mood among Americans.  

• Shoppers seem alert to potential dangers but not fully deterred.  
• Many do say they’ll think twice before venturing out or spend less time browsing in stores. 
• Meanwhile corporations seem quiet in the public forum but are likely keeping a close eye on shrinking revenues. 
• People are hesitant due to increased risks of theft and organized retail crime. 
• Some express fear about potential mass shootings in places like malls and shopping centers. 
• And most Americans feel uncertain about the overall economy affecting their spending power. 

Media Denial 

At the same time, many media outlets push back on the narrative that retail crime is significantly increasing nationwide based on available data.  

• Many headlines suggest that retailers may be overstating or sensationalizing the issue.  
• Some journalists express a desire for “more objective” data collection on retail crime trends before concluding there is a major national surge occurring. 
• Despite media pushback, these pressures may cause retailers to see decreased profits through the end of 2023.