Donald Trump’s recent proposal to “staple a green card to every diploma” for graduates caused discussion within his base. The policy, which aims to retain skilled international graduates in the U.S. workforce, clashes with ongoing debates about immigration, the economy, and job competition.

Sentiment trends, potential voter impact, and deeper implications of this policy vary across Trump’s core base, Independents, and crossover voters. Analysis of voter discussions reveals the potential impact of this proposal on the election.

Summary of Findings

• 65-80% of Trump’s base endorses the policy for its economic benefits.
• 40-58% of Independents express cautious support but remain skeptical about job competition.
• At least half of crossover voters criticize the policy as politically motivated and say they would be less likely to vote.
• 10-15% of the base say this policy would increase their likelihood to vote
• 5-15% of Independents say it could increase their likelihood to vote.

Trump’s Core Base

The MAGA base is largely enthusiastic about the green card proposal. The policy resonates with those who see it as an economically sound solution to fill gaps in the American workforce. They appreciate that the policy focuses on retaining skilled talent, particularly in tech and innovation sectors, aligning with the economic nationalism that Trump has emphasized throughout his campaigns.

Comments from Trump’s base reveal a clear endorsement of the policy as beneficial to American economic growth. Voters feel Trump is prioritizing the U.S. workforce and addressing real labor shortages. However, around 20-30% are concerned about potential job competition, worrying the policy could lead to higher competition for American workers—particularly in lower-skilled sectors.

Independents

Independents are divided, with around half cautiously supporting it. These voters appreciate the focus on retaining high-skilled graduates, seeing it as a practical move to bolster economic growth and innovation in the U.S. However, many independents remain wary of Trump’s broader immigration policies and question the long-term impact of such a proposal on job competition.

The skepticism of this group stems from concerns about how the policy may affect the job market for American workers. Some view the proposal as a necessary economic measure, while others express doubt about its implementation and potential unintended consequences.

Crossover Voters

Crossover voters, or moderates, are overwhelmingly negative about the green card proposal. This group, which traditionally leans Democratic, views the policy as politically motivated.

For many, the proposal feels like an electoral ploy rather than a genuine attempt at reform, leading them to further distrust Trump’s intentions. However, there is a possibility this dialogue stems from anti-Trump voters who are reacting to these discussions merely to oppose any Trump policy as they normally would.

The dominant concern among this demographic is that the proposal will exacerbate existing immigration issues without addressing deeper systemic problems. Many see it as another example of Trump’s divisive approach to politics, which alienates them further. This opposition is likely to drive turnout against Trump, with crossover voters potentially mobilizing to vote for an alternative candidate.

Turnout Implications

The overall voter turnout trends suggest Trump’s green card proposal may energize his base. Supporters feel empowered by the economic and nationalist rhetoric with all his economic policies and are likely to engage more deeply in local campaigns.

However, for Independents, the policy yields mixed results, potentially driving modest gains in turnout among those who prioritize economic growth but failing to inspire more skeptical individuals. Crossover voters, on the other hand, show strong opposition.

Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE) recently published report revealing hundreds of thousands of criminals have illegally entered the country. The report said, “as of July 21, 2024, nearly 650,000 criminal illegal aliens were currently on ICE’s Non-Detained Docket (NDD) and roaming free in communities throughout the United States.”

MIG Reports analysis shows this story specifically eliciting anger from all voters, but especially Independents. This analysis examines voter discussions, including surface-level reactions and the deeper meaning underlying sentiment.

BREAKING: In a stunning letter sent to @RepTonyGonzales by ICE, the agency reveals there are currently 13,000+ noncitizens convicted of homicide & 15,000+ noncitizens convicted of sexual assault who are roaming the US as part of ICE’s non-detained docket.https://t.co/KgS5DAWzV9

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) September 27, 2024

Border Security Conversations

Discussions about border security are dominated by concerns over public safety. Independents are particularly critical of the Biden-Harris administration for its immigration policies.

• 61% express disappointment in the administration's border leniency.
• 55% support Trump’s stricter border policies, reflecting a belief that his approach was more effective at safeguarding national integrity.
• 30% have mixed sentiment, indicating dissatisfaction with both major parties.

The use of third-person language in these discussions displays collective outrage toward Biden and Harris, distancing the commenters from personal accountability and broadly critiquing political failures.

Immigration Conversations

When discussing immigration more broadly, Independents voice mixed opinions.

• 70% have negative views of the Biden-Harris administration, critiquing its leniency and failure to manage vast migrant surges.
• 40% are optimistic toward Trump’s potential return to office.
• 30% are concerned about how immigration is framed, focusing on treating migrants humanely, and questioning the validity of rampant criminality.

Citizen and community safety is a critical concern for Independents, though some want more comprehensive, humane immigration reform.

Deeper Meaning Analysis

Beyond direct conversations, larger themes emerge. Most Independents express disillusionment with the current political leadership. Particularly in relation to border security, but also in broader governance.

• 30% of Independents express hope for a third-party candidate, indicating growing dissatisfaction with both Democrats and Republicans.

They consistently use both first- and third-person language, showing a divide between personal stakes and collective critiques. This suggests Independents are politically disengaged as well as frustrated with a lack of effective solutions. This discontent could signal a shift in voter mobilization, with many expressing a desire for accountability and stronger leadership.

Urgency in Reactions

A strong sense of urgency underpins many conversations. Many present the upcoming election as critical, emphasizing decisions on immigration and border security must be made now to prevent further chaos. Some comments describe voting as a life-or-death decision, stressing immediate action as necessary to secure the nation. This heightened urgency appears to drive a belief that leadership—particularly Trump’s—is necessary to restore order and protect national interests. This signals an energized and mobilized electorate, which includes many Independents.

Vice President Kamala Harris visited the southern border, reigniting a long-standing debate about her role as "border czar" and Biden-Harris immigration policies. Arriving just weeks before the 2024 election, Harris's appearance in Arizona drew widespread criticism. Many reactions included some version of the sentiment too little, too late.

MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: “This border trip today happened at the WORST possible time for [Kamala], given the other news that came out — that her administration allowed nearly half a MILLION criminals, MANY of them violent criminals — to just be in the country and roaming FREELY.” pic.twitter.com/6Q8QIRcxuy

— Proud Elephant 🇺🇸🦅 (@ProudElephantUS) September 27, 2024

Photo Op at the Border

MIG Reports data shows:

• 76% of voters perceive her visit as politically motivated and a "last-ditch effort" to appeal to voters who are increasingly angry.

Harris's border visit just weeks before the election raises red flags for many. After spending nearly four years avoiding the border as “border czar,” many view the untimely visit as empty and politically motivated.

Most Americans view the trip to Douglas, AZ, as clearly designed to pander for votes over an issue the Harris campaign is losing on. The timing makes the visit appear even more performative as a photo op than a sincere attempt to fix an issue which Harris has failed to address for years.

Kamala Harris was on the border for less than 20 minutes yesterday.

It wasn’t a border visit, it was a poorly ran photo opportunity. pic.twitter.com/rGVVkucswq

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) September 28, 2024

For many, Harris’s visit is both suspiciously timed and a slap in the face to millions of Americans who have been outraged about the Biden-Harris administration’s refusal to address citizen concerns and protect the country.

• Following her border visit, national sentiment toward Harris regarding the border moved very little, increasing from 39% the day before to 42% the day after.
• However, in Arizona, Harris’s sentiment was more significantly impacted, dropping from 49% a week ago to 33% today.
• Harris’s overall sentiment in Arizona dropped from 44% a week ago to 42% today.

A Record of Neglect and Failure

MIG Reports data shows:

• 67% of voters distrust Harris’s motivations and approach to border security.

Disbelief about the sincerity of Harris’s overtures at the border springs from outrage at her track record—or lack thereof—on border security. Since taking office in 2021, Harris has been truant in her task of managing immigration and the border. Illegal crossings have been at all-time highs in the last several years.

Recent reports from ICE reveal the Biden-Harris administration has overseen 13,099 murderers and 15,811 rapists within a larger 425,431 convicted criminals entering the U.S. illegally.

🚨🚨BREAKING: According to a new report from the Deputy Director of ICE, Joe Biden and Border Czar Kamala Harris allowed a SHOCKING number of criminals into America, including:

- 13,099 Murderers
- 15,811 Rapists
- 425,431 Convicted Criminals

Treason. Disqualifying. Evil. pic.twitter.com/XG1oClyDNe

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) September 27, 2024

One of the most recurring accusations voters make against the Biden-Harris administration is the rollback of "Remain in Mexico" and other stringent Trump-era immigration policies. Among border communities, conservatives, moderates, and some Democrats is the belief that Harris intentionally left the border wide open, allowing dangerous criminals to enter. Voters see Harris’s policies as fostering lawlessness, further eroding confidence in the Democratic Party’s ability to manage immigration.

Cartel Trafficking, Rising Crime, and Safety

Voters often mention the tangible impacts Harris’s policies have had on crime rates, both along the border and within American communities. People criticize sharp increases in migrant crime and the fentanyl and larger drug crisis perpetuated by Mexican cartels under the Biden-Harris administration.

• 67% of voters link rising crime rates directly to Harris’s border policies.
• 77% favor stricter border policies and support reinstating Trump-era policies.
• 60% express preference for Donald Trump’s leadership on immigration.

In areas hardest hit by illegal immigration, voters are increasingly vocal about the lack of accountability and action from Washington. Many feel abandoned, left to deal with the fallout from policies that seem more focused on humanitarian optics than protecting American citizens.

Media Complicity in Border Gaslighting

Negativity about the Biden-Harris border is compounded by voter frustration toward media coverage. Many voters believe mainstream media willfully refuses to report the severity of the border crisis—particularly when it comes to crime statistics and cartel activity.

• 68% of voters accuse the media of underreporting or downplaying the immigration crisis.

Americans view the media as complicit in shaping a narrative favorable to the administration. Many voters choose alternative news sources for information on platforms like X, knowing the media will not report the reality of the situation.

What Does This Mean for the 2024 Election?

Sentiment about border security and the number of illegal immigrants flooding American communities is likely to play a pivotal role in the presidential election. Harris’s track record on the border is both a black mark on her vice-presidential record and a major liability for the Democratic Party.

If voters continue to feel highly motivated by border issues, it will likely play a role in deciding votes in November. Trump’s focus on law and order and his track record of reducing illegal crossings will likely resonate with voters who feel betrayed by Harris and her lax policies. Harris’s border visit rings insincere to many, coming too late to reverse the tide of public opinion.

In Nantucket, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested four illegal immigrants charged with raping or sexually assaulting children or residents. Voter discussions about illegal aliens and sex crimes reflect an intense and emotional reactions. There is particular vitriol toward the Biden-Harris administration for its part in the border and crime crisis.

Americans are outraged, afraid, and frustrated as these crimes repeatedly shine a light on border security, migrant crime, and the incompetence of the Biden-Harris regime.

NEW: In a multi day operation on Nantucket Island, ICE’s Boston office announces they arrested four illegal aliens who are charged with raping or sexually assaulting Nantucket children or residents - all of whom were released from local custody despite the serious charges.

They… pic.twitter.com/K3LlfR6NqP

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) September 24, 2024

Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative toward Democratic immigration policies and border security failures.

• 80% of discussions focus on the administration’s perceived failure to address sex crimes, particularly child rape and trafficking, committed by illegal immigrants.
• 70% mention concerns about rising crime rates due to illegal immigrant crime and border policies.
• 60% express anger and frustration towards the Biden-Harris administration.
• 55% voice fears related to national security and public safety.
• Americans criticize what they see as Democrats prioritizing political gain over the safety and welfare of American citizens.
• Many call for stricter immigration laws and better enforcement of border security measures.

Throughout voter conversations, people demand greater transparency and accountability from the government. Many believe the Biden-Harris administration is mishandling the border situation, which they view as enabling criminal activity, particularly child exploitation. This pervasive distrust reflects a deeper fear about the erosion of safety and values in American society. Voters want immediate, tough action on border control and immigration enforcement to protect children.

🚨Holy sht

Former Acting Director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Tom Homan reveals that there are OVER 500k unaccompanied minors that have crossed over our southern border.

They are then released to “sponsors” and often sold into indentured servitude or the s*x… pic.twitter.com/f1Q44vVfCg

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) September 25, 2024

Recent news about Chicago Public School teachers being forced by administrators to pass migrant children has stirred significant debate and concern. MIG Reports analysis of discussions among moms and teachers shows concerns about the potential impact in their communities.

Both of these groups express mixed emotions about the impact on their children's and students’ education and school experiences. Reactions show a complex dynamic between empathy for migrant children and anxiety over how this shift will affect American children's academic and social experiences.

🚨Huge scandal unfolding in @ChiPubSchools!

Chicago elementary teachers have come forward alleging that administrators instructed them they have to give migrant students a passing grade of 70% in every subject.

Teachers say they spoke no Spanish, the kids spoke no English and… pic.twitter.com/opwlMKfOEn

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) September 19, 2024

Mom Concerns: Anxiety and Empathy

American moms are addressing the difficult nature of this dilemma. Across numerous datasets, between 62-75% fear the influx of migrant students will disrupt their children's education. They cite concerns about the strain on resources, overcrowding, and reduced individual attention from teachers.

Around 40-45% are also worried about social and cultural conflicts, such as bullying, that may arise in the integration process. Another 30% of moms caveat their discussions to express empathy, acknowledging that migrant children deserve a chance to rebuild their lives through education.

Teachers and Educators: Managing Practical Realities

Teachers and educators are at the forefront of this challenge as well. They are trying to balance empathy with the practical realities of accommodating a larger and more diverse student population.

MIG Reports data shows around 65% of self-described educators express concerns about the strain on resources. They note that current school infrastructure—staff, textbooks, and technology—may not be sufficient to manage the influx of new students.

Approximately 55% are particularly worried about the potential impact on the academic performance of their existing students. They say integrating migrant children will likely lead to disruptions in the classroom.

Despite teacher worries, around 40-45% remain committed to the principle of providing quality education for all children, regardless of background, and are determined to make it work with the right support.

A Complex and Nuanced Reaction

Reactions to this story reflect the complexity of empathy from mothers and teachers with the realities of the border crisis. Both groups grapple with balancing their desire for fairness and empathy with concerns about how illegal immigration is affecting the quality of education and social dynamics in American schools.

This all comes on the heels of American schoolchildren still reeling from the effects of school lockdowns during COVID, with parents still distrusting the school system.

In discussing mass deportations, Vice President Kamala Harris recently asked, “How’s that going to happen?” This comment, along with the U.S. government not knowing exactly how many illegal immigrants are in the country stirs impassioned reactions from Americans.

Kamala appears to be campaigning for Trump: "They have pledged to carry out the largest deportation, a mass deportation, in American history. Imagine what that would look like and what that would be." pic.twitter.com/l6CVbvZUwA

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) September 18, 2024

How Americans View Kamala

The public sentiment is predominantly critical toward Harris’s stance on immigration. Around 70% of Americans disapprove of her immigration policies and her views on open borders. MIG Reports analysis shows 55% support mass deportations, citing concerns over national security, crime, and the economic burden of illegal immigration. This figure aligns with a recent Scripps News/Ipsos survey showing 54% of Americans support mass deportation.

Americans Are Angry

The conversation around immigration is heated, with many Americans expressing frustration and anger towards Biden-Harris policies. Some common complaints include:

• Government failure to enforce existing immigration laws
• Large influxes of illegal immigrants
• Migrants receiving preferential treatment over American citizens

Around 60% of Americans say the Biden-Harris administration's open border policies are responsible for overwhelming surges in migration. This, they say, includes the subsequent problems associated with it—like issues Ohio residents are facing. Many express concerns over safety and security in their communities, citing crime, violence, and exploitation by illegal immigrants.

Only 25% argue mass deportations are inhumane and unjust. This group says a more comprehensive and inclusive approach to immigration reform is needed. They argue immigrants, regardless of their status, contribute to the economy and enrich American society.

The Border is an Election Issue

MIG Reports analysis of other conversations regarding the border crisis show several supporting narratives.

In election discussions:

• 53% of Americans believe Trump would handle immigration well
• 45% believe Harris would handle it well
• 50% of black Americans believe immigration is negatively impacting their economic opportunities and communities

In swing state discussions:

• 71% of Americans are concerned about the economic impact of illegal immigration
• 55% believe Harris's open-border approach is harming the country

These patterns mirror the national perspective that immigration is deeply intertwined with concerns about national security, jobs, and the economy.

The relationship between non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and their relationship with Mexican cartels and other transnational criminal organizations is complex. MIG Reports analysis shows significant American concerns about these issues, particularly human trafficking and government complicity in crime activity.

There is a noticeable focus on the perceived failures of both NGOs and the Biden-Harris administration in addressing cartels furthering human trafficking and illegal immigration. This analysis highlights discussion trends, dominate concerns, and public sentiment about border security and the role of NGOs.

How Americans Feel

Voter discussions across thousands of comments is overwhelmingly negative:

• 39.4% of the conversation focuses on human trafficking
• 50.1% conveys belief in illegal activities by cartels and NGOs
• 27.8% focuses on criticizing the Biden-Harris administration
• 28% links cartels to fentanyl trafficking, emphasizing the connection between the opioid crisis and border security concerns.

The conversations reflect deep skepticism toward the government’s ability to protect citizens and frustration with the perceived complicity of NGOs in facilitating illegal activities through funding channels and logistical coordination.

Government Criticism and Accountability

Many Americans mention the Biden-Harris administration negatively in conversations about illegal cartel activity and border issues. They blame the administration’s border policies for enabling human trafficking and fentanyl smuggling. Voters argue the government’s refusal to secure the border has led to a rise in both trafficking and opioid-related deaths.

Americans are particularly vocal about their frustration with Democratic inaction. There is sharp criticism and concern that Biden-Harris policies prioritize the needs of immigrants over the safety of American citizens. This harsh critique reveals a widespread sentiment that government leadership is not concerned about protecting vulnerable Americans or addressing pressing border control problems.

NGOs and Their Role in Immigration and Trafficking

NGOs come under heavy fire in these discussions, with 50% linking them to illegal immigration and human trafficking. Americans believe NGOs, often funded by taxpayer money, facilitate illegal activities either through direct involvement or by offering support that allows traffickers and cartels to operate freely.

Many express outrage over NGOs profiting from the very problems they claim to solve. The conversation also highlights concerns that NGOs are enabling child exploitation by allowing traffickers to use legal loopholes to smuggle children across borders. This widespread criticism of NGOs reflects a deep sense of betrayal, as users perceive these ostensibly humanitarian organizations as working against national interests and using public funds.

Human Trafficking and Fentanyl Crisis

Human and drug trafficking is another deeply negative conversation. Nearly 40% of the discussion focuses on illegal trafficking. Americans are angry and worried about the exploitation of vulnerable populations, especially children. Many view child trafficking as a growing crisis which the government does nothing to solve.

Voters say government negligence, coupled with the actions of NGOs, is exacerbating the problem. Conversations are deeply emotional, often sharing personal stories or using vivid imagery to convey the severity of the safety issues for kids.

Drug trafficking, specifically fentanyl smuggling, is also linked to cartel activity and border security. Americans view Biden-Harris policies as directly contributing to the fentanyl crisis ravaging communities and families across the country. The connection between human trafficking and drug trafficking is a recurring theme, reinforcing the idea that these are intertwined issues which government has failed to address adequately.

Recent discussions about trust in the voting system are stirring American fears—particularly around illegal immigrants voting. This issue sparks concerns over election integrity, immigration policy, and national identity. Discussions about the potential for various kinds of election interference permeate mainstream political discourse and online debates. Most American voters express anxiety about what they see as a potential erosion of democracy.

Why Do People Fear Illegal Immigrant Voting?

Since 2020, fears of election interference and cheating have weighed on voters across the political spectrum. Many believe lax border policies and a lack of stringent voter ID laws could allow non-citizens to vote. This, they believe, would undermine the legitimacy of election outcomes.

The perception is heightened by claims that allowing illegal immigrants to vote certainly skew the results in favor of candidates lenient on immigration policy—often, but not exclusively, Democrats. Many on the right also assert this is an intentional but unspoken strategy by Democrats to gain votes.

The passionate tone of conversations is palpable. Many voters see illegal immigrants voting as not just a policy issue, but a direct threat to the integrity of the voting process. Words like "betrayal," "treasonous," and "national security" frequently surface in these exchanges, illustrating the intensity of public sentiment.

The Fear is Growing

MIG Reports analysis of online conversations shows:

Nationally

• 52% of express a belief that illegal immigrants will vote.
• 75%, regardless of whether they believe illegal immigrants will vote, express concern about the issue.
• 59% vocally disapprove of the idea of illegal immigrants voting.
• 16% express approval or are neutral about the issue of illegals voting.

Swing states

Belief in the threat of illegal immigrants voting:

• 45% believe illegal immigrants will vote in the election.
• 31% dismiss the idea as a false narrative or conspiracy theory.
• 24% are neutral or unsure.

Sentiment about illegal immigrant voting:

• 51% disapprove of the idea of illegal immigrants voting in the election.
• 21% express approval or support for allowing illegal immigrants to vote.
• 28% of comments are neutral or unsure.

Though a majority nationally disapprove and express concern, swing state voters are more divided. Voters in critical states still express concern more often than indifference or support, but not as strongly as in national samples.

Reasons Voters Are Concerned

Voter fears are driven by election integrity, national sovereignty, and the perceived manipulation of democratic processes. Many fear allowing illegal immigrants to vote is unfair and threatens national interests. They say giving undue voting rights to groups who often do not pay taxes and are not part of the national social contract, weakens the voice of citizens. They say it erodes the sanctity of the voting process.

Many Americans are also express broader frustrations about immigration policy. They consider unchecked migration as a larger threat to national identity, the economy, and safety as well as election integrity.

Progressives and Democrats are more likely to be proponents of allowing illegal immigrants to vote. This minority argues migrants contribute to the U.S. economy and deserve representation in the democratic process. They claim the number of illegal immigrants voting is minuscule, dismissing fears of meaningful impact on the election.

The SAVE Act

Central to the debate is the SAVE Act, a bill proposed to tighten voter eligibility rules and ensure that only U.S. citizens can cast ballots in federal elections. The legislation would require states to verify the citizenship of voters and impose stricter penalties for voter fraud.

Supporters of the SAVE Act argue the bill is a necessary safeguard to prevent illegal immigrants from voting and protect election integrity. Many of those concerned about illegal voting cite the SAVE Act as the only effective way to address this perceived vulnerability in the system. For them, this legislation represents a proactive solution to what they see as a looming threat to democratic legitimacy.

Critics, however, argue the SAVE Act is a thinly veiled attempt to suppress minority votes, saying it would make it more difficult for naturalized citizens and lower-income communities to vote. They claim widespread voter fraud, including voting by illegal immigrants, is largely a myth and only happens “rarely.”

How Could This Impact the 2024 Election?

If illegal immigrants are allowed to vote, or if perceptions persist that they are voting illegally, the impact on the 2024 election could be profound. Based on current voter sentiment, likely outcomes include:

Erosion of Trust

Beliefs that illegal immigrants are voting—especially if proven true—deepen distrust in election results. Already, more than half of voters are concerned about this issue, and these concerns could further polarize the electorate. Lingering disagreements about the 2020 election and various voter fraud allegations will likely heighten the emotional response if voters believe illegal immigrants are voting in great numbers.

Boost to the SAVE Act and Similar Legislation

If concerns about illegal immigrant voting persist, we may see a surge in support for the SAVE Act or similar bills aimed at requiring voter ID and other integrity measures. Politicians who align themselves with this movement could gain momentum, particularly in conservative-leaning districts.

Political Ramifications

Should illegal immigrants vote in noticeable numbers—whether allowed by legal loopholes or through fraud—most believe the results would favor the Harris-Walz ticket. Any suspicion or evidence of illegal voting could lead to a backlash, causing continued disagreements about election results.

Legal Challenges and Protests

An uptick in allegations of illegal voting could result in a wave of legal challenges, further delaying election results and heightening tensions. Protests from both sides of the issue could erupt, making the post-election environment volatile and unpredictable.

Donald Trump's recent debate statement linking immigration to economic issues resonates with voters who also view these issues as linked. According to Trump, immigration and economic stability are inherently intertwined—a reality many segments of the electorate overserve on their own. However, many voters also reject this view or express neutral feelings. While immigration and economic issues remain high priority for all voters, how Americans think about them is starkly varied. 

The Border Impacts the Economy

Trump's supporters overwhelmingly view immigration as a key driver of economic challenges. These voters argue unchecked immigration, particularly illegal immigration, strains public resources. Many, like residents in Ohio struggling with an influx of immigrants, say migrant needs inflate housing and healthcare costs. They also say mass migration threatens job security.

Particularly on the right, agree that the economy is impacted by illegal immigration. However, mentions of this link vary depending on the origins of the discussion. Despite the variables, Trump’s assertion remains a point of agreement for most Americans.

What Voters Say

• MIG Reports data shows approximately 46.4% of voters believe stronger immigration controls would directly lead to improved economic conditions. They often mention reducing competition for jobs and lower inflation rates.
• 28.6% of voters align with Harris’s perspective, which suggests Trump is dramatizing the severity of both economic struggles and border security.
• 20% of voters voice neutral or mixed views, reflecting a more nuanced or indifferent stance on the issue.

Economy Conversations

In discussions about the economy:

• 57.2% support Trump's view that the economy is linked to immigration.
• 23.5% disagree with linking the issues.
• 19.3% remain neutral or indifferent to the connection.

Border Security Conversations

In discussions about the border and immigration:

• 35.6% support Trump's stance.
• 33.7% disagree, expressing concerns about oversimplification or sensationalism.
• 20.7% are neutral or hold mixed views, calling for more nuanced discussions.

Open Border Voters Disagree

Americans who disagree that immigration is tied to the economy say Trump oversimplifies complex issues. They say the economy's problems are rooted in broader systemic challenges like inflation, corporate policies, and global economic trends. Many of these voters claim Trump’s statements are nothing more than fearmongering.

Opponents also say Trump sensationalizes border and economy discussions by making false claims about immigrants increasing U.S. crime. This group believes immigrants contribute positively to the economy, filling critical labor shortages and fostering cultural diversity, which they believe outweighs the economic risks Trump outlines.

The Kinda-Sorta-I-Don’t-Know Vote

Mixed sentiment voters mostly express two perspectives. Some criticize both Trump and Kamala Harris’s views on the economy and immigration, while others opt to prioritize issues they view as more important. These viewpoints reflect a broader frustration with political rhetoric and a desire for more balanced dialogue.

Sentiment Analysis

Voters may feel more inclined to support Trump's stance on immigration when the issue is framed as economic. Many American workers feel personal impacts from job competition, inflation, and rising costs in their daily lives. Linking immigration to these concerns resonates more directly than speaking about it as a standalone issue.

When conversations focus primarily on border security or immigration issues, viewpoints tend to become more abstract. Voters may feel less directly impacted unless they live in a border or sanctuary state, leading to more mixed or neutral views.

Additionally, social conditioning may play a role if voters avoid expressing strong opinions on immigration to avoid being seen as racist or xenophobic. This common framing of border issues on the political left often aims severe criticism at border security concerns. When voters view immigration through the lens of economic impact, Americans are more able to justify a desire for stricter policies without touching on sensitive racial dynamics.