Both Trump and Harris are battling to secure votes from traditionally Democratic voters like minority groups and working-class Americans. These groups have reliably leaned left in the past, but recent trends suggest a growing disillusionment with Democratic leadership. This opens the door for Donald Trump to potentially make gains among voters who are typically out of reach for Republicans.

🚨Holy sht!

Even CNN is being forced to tell the American people how BAD Kamala’s polling is.

The polls have NEVER been this bad for a Democrat running against Trump.
She’s even hemorrhaging minorities.

Americans see the truth, 4 years under Kamala would WRECK our country…! pic.twitter.com/7YpSGeBVqr

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) September 24, 2024

Support

MIG Reports data suggests Trump has an approximate:

• 10-20% support among black voters.
• 20-30% support among Hispanic voters.
• 10-20% support among Asian-American voters.

While these numbers are not overwhelming, they suggest a potential increase compared to previous Republican candidates. Trump's economic message resonates with those who feel the pinch of rising inflation and stagnant wages.

#New General election poll - Hispanic voters

🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
🔵 Harris 44%

Quinnipiac #B - LV - 9/22

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 25, 2024

Minority Voters Focus on Domestic Issues

MIG Reports data from voter conversations shows minority groups are overwhelmingly focused on domestic issues. Analysis suggests the economy, healthcare, and immigration dominate minority voter concerns. This focus is particularly sharp given rising costs of living, housing shortages, and ongoing healthcare debates.

Top Concerns for Minority Voters

• Economic Concerns: Rising grocery and housing prices are central issues, with many blaming Democratic policies. Minority voters often disproportionately feel economic strain and want solutions that directly impact their lives.
• Immigration and Border Security: Immigration is both practical and symbolic for minority groups. Hispanic voters often support Trump's tough immigration stance—particularly legal immigrants whose jobs are threatened by an open border.
• Healthcare and Reproductive Rights: Healthcare is a focus, especially abortion. Some minority groups are split between supporting Trump's pro-life platform and fearing his policies threaten women’s healthcare.
• Distrust of Government: Among minorities, there is deep skepticism toward government institutions and their competence. There is frustration with political leaders and agencies, which are often viewed as biased or manipulated.

Like all voters, minority groups prioritize issues they believe affect them immediately and directly. However, they often don’t focus on foreign conflicts or geopolitical strategy, instead preferring tangible solutions to domestic problems.

Contrast with Overall Voter Priorities

There is a notable difference in the top issues among minority voters compared with high priorities among all voters. National security and foreign conflicts like Ukraine and Israel are top concerns for the broader electorate, but these issues do not crack the top five among minorities.

Comparison of Top Issues

Minority Views of Trump

Historically, minority voters have been a difficult demographic for Republican candidates to attract. However, Donald Trump may have an opportunity to capture some degree of support within these communities.

Notions that Trump "helped all Americans" economically before COVID resonates with segments of black and Hispanic voters. Trump's stance on job creation and tax cuts, while controversial, appeals to those who see his policies as protecting American jobs. This is particularly true in lower-income communities.

Voters Don't Trust the Polls

Another dimension across all voter groups is skepticism of polls and the political establishment. Many believe polls cited by the media are biased or manipulated to fit a certain narrative. This distrust further complicates voter outreach efforts as many point to previous election cycles where Trump outperformed his poll numbers.

In the context of minority voters, skepticism extends to both parties but particularly harms Democrats who are seen as part of the political establishment.

Sentiment Toward Polls Among Minority Voters

• 42% express skepticism toward poll numbers.
• 21% believe polls are manipulated or biased.
• 55% show negative sentiment toward polls.

This disillusionment erodes the credibility of pollsters but also influences how voters view politicians. The Democratic Party, as the current party in power, bears the brunt of this skepticism. Trump, often viewed as a political outsider, tends to benefit from positioning himself as fighting against establishment mechanisms.

Potential to Capitalize on Anti-Establishment Sentiments

If Trump continues to make inroads with minority voters, especially in key battleground states, he could wrest important voters from Kamala Harris. While minority support for Trump remains relatively modest compared to the overall electorate, even a slight increase in black, Hispanic, or Asian-American support could prove decisive.

Analysis suggests by gaining just 5% more of the Hispanic vote in states like Florida, Nevada, or Arizona, Trump could tilt the balance in his favor. Similarly, a 3-5% increase in black voter turnout for Trump in states like Michigan or Pennsylvania could be enough to counter Democratic margins in urban areas.

However, extreme partisan divides and distrust in polling also causes some to suggest Republicans consistently remain too hopeful for gaining minority votes. This group holds that GOP ceilings for these important voters continue, even in 2024.

Every single election cycle, Republicans confidently predict that a wave of minority support for the GOP is right around the corner.

But it never seems to materialize.

Based on the past 50 years, the GOP's ceiling with minority voters seems to be:

Blacks: 15%
Hispanics: 40% https://t.co/k3Puj7NKZr pic.twitter.com/vJQqxd32Fs

— Nate Hochman (@njhochman) March 5, 2024

In the last several weeks, presidential endorsements have been playing a role in shaping voter sentiment and indicating the overall political mood. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are facing the political repercussions—positive and negative—of high-profile endorsements or lack of endorsements.

National sentiment toward Trump continues to widen the gap between candidates with 56% support for Trump—a stunning 13% lead over Harris—compared to only a 5% advantage two weeks ago.

Trump Endorsements

Donald Trump has secured endorsements highlighting his conservative and populist support, increasing the contrast between him and establishment Republicans.

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement of Trump surprised some but shows Trump's appeal to populist and anti-establishment voters.
• Fraternal Order of Police endorsing Trump carries significant weight with law-and-order conservatives and strengthens his position as a rule of law candidate.
• Elon Musk endorsing Trump adds a layer of tech and pop culture credibility, furthering his anti-establishment image.

Harris Endorsements

Kamala Harris has had a rocky road with endorsements, particularly when it comes to working-class Americans versus celebrities and elites.

• The Teamsters Union refusing to endorse Harris is perhaps one the most notable instances. Historically, Teamsters always support Democratic candidates, but this year have refused to officially support Harris.
• Celebrities like Taylor Swift, Oprah, and Billie Eilish endorsing Harris draws excitement in her base but criticism from anti-establishment and anti-elite voters.
• The IRS Union also endorsed Harris, drawing sharp criticism from conservatives and middle-income Americans who are frustrated with the economy and taxes.
• Other establishment entities like National Security Leaders for America and those considered RINOs like Dick Cheney and 200 former GOP aides draws criticism from anti-establishment voters.

In the last two weeks, Harris has averaged higher sentiment in voter conversations about political endorsements with 48% to Trump’s 47%. But in the last three days, Trump has overtaken Harris by up to three points.

Trouble for Democrats

Unions

Recent Teamsters polling showed 58.5% of their members support Trump, with only 32.5% backing Harris. This is a significant advantage for Trump who trailed Biden by 8% just a few months ago. These cultural and political shifts signal working-class ire against Harris, raising questions about her ability to connect with traditionally Democratic blue-collar voters.

TEAMSTERS RELEASE PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT POLLING DATA

“For the past year, the Teamsters Union has pledged to conduct the most inclusive, democratic, and transparent Presidential endorsement process in the history of our 121-year-old organization—and today we are delivering on… pic.twitter.com/CnFNN9uosx

— Teamsters (@Teamsters) September 18, 2024

Many union workers enthusiastically express their support for Trump, which so far seems to be playing out in early voting and swing state support. This includes nearly 60% of Teamsters, 70% of Steamfitters Local 638, and 65-70% of UAW members.

YESTERDAY: Nearly 60% of @Teamsters are voting for President Trump.

TODAY: 70% of Steamfitters Local 638 are voting for President Trump.

ALSO TODAY: It’s estimated 65-70% of UAW members are voting for President Trump.

Hardworking Americans know President Trump HAS THEIR BACK. pic.twitter.com/fFOrRs9aXd

— Byron Donalds (@ByronDonalds) September 19, 2024

Some are interpreting the Teamsters’ decision not to endorse as a sign of low confidence in Harris's willingness to support working-class Americans. Others says it’s a result of Harris refusing to let the union's president speak at the DNC.

The IRS

Harris’s IRS endorsement may also hurt more than help her with the economy remaining a top issue for voters across the country. During a recent campaign rally, Trump mocked Harris, saying he’d “rather not have that endorsement.”

Donald Trump on Kamala Harris getting the endorsement of IRS agents:

“I would rather not have that endorsement.”🤣

pic.twitter.com/NK5eLdkeKB

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 24, 2024

Voters express outrage and concern about the potential implications of the IRS endorsement. Critics say it is a clear example of the government's overreach and politicized federal agencies. They say Harris's support for the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided the IRS with an additional $80 billion and 87,000 new agents, is a threat to individual liberties.

Law Enforcement

Some are also saying Harris’s backing from Police Leaders for Community Safety does nothing since the organization was only founded in March of 2024. This sudden emergence of alleged law enforcement support is dubious to many who point out the vague and nonspecific nature of endorsement announcements on the official Harris campaign X account.

There is particular criticism from those who decry crime rates and the rule of law under the Biden-Harris administration. This group often suggests attempts to manufacture law enforcement support is a cynical ploy by the Harris campaign to appeal to moderates and conservatives.

The single most astroturfed Presidential campaign in modern U.S. history.

The stunning endorsement that “normally backs Trump?”

They are referring to the Police Leaders for Community Safety, which was founded in March of THIS YEAR.

It’s a fake group. pic.twitter.com/g3vZfpKFAR

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 24, 2024

Are There Votes Up for Grabs?

The impact of endorsements on voter groups remains opaque, though likely concentrating support among those who already lean to one side or the other. The critical question for many is whether certain endorsements can sway critical battleground and moderate voters. MIG Reports data from voter conversations suggests:

• 20% of Democratic voters are likely swayed positively by Harris endorsements, especially from celebrities like Oprah and Taylor Swift.
• 30% of Republican voters respond positively to Trump’s endorsements, especially from RFK Jr. and the Fraternal Order of Police.
• Around 10-15% of undecided voters may move toward Harris and potentially 5-10% to Trump—although these percentages are projections with low certainty.

The Whole Picture of Endorsements

Endorsements serve as a barometer for campaign momentum—and Trump currently seems have a stronger position. His endorsements from law enforcement, tech moguls, and even former Democrats like RFK Jr. highlight his ability to appeal to a broad range of voter groups. Furthermore, his ability to draw working-class support away from traditional Democratic strongholds like the Teamsters is particularly telling.

Harris, meanwhile, is struggling to maintain enthusiasm among key demographics. While celebrity endorsements may energize certain liberal and youth segments, the lack of union support and the controversial IRS endorsement suggest her campaign faces challenges among working-class and middle-income voters. Despite Joe Biden’s low favorability prior to dropping out of the race, enthusiasm for Harris seems to be largely driven by the media, elites, and political establishment figures rather than critical moderate voting groups in swing states, which she would require to win.

The presidential race picture is unclear post-debate and amid early voting as both sides claim to have the edge in a tight race. MIG Reports analysis showed Trump surging after the first Trump-Harris debate on ABC, which coincides with Times/Siena swing state polling. Both MIG Reports data and polls show Trump gaining momentum in key battleground states and expanding his lead over Harris. With early voting underway and Harris’s numbers questionable, Democrats want a second debate.

"Kamala Harris dominated the debate" pic.twitter.com/0aXGDGsmY0

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 23, 2024

Harris announced that she has accepted an invitation from CNN for a second debate, causing a stir on social media when she called Trump the “Former Vice President.” Meanwhile, Trump remains dismissive, saying it's too late for another debate and Harris is likely losing.

Kamala: “I’d like another debate. I hope the former Vice President would agree to that.”

Which Vice President is she talking about here?
pic.twitter.com/H8JhwYICNc

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 22, 2024

JUST IN: Donald Trump says he will *not* be doing another debate in October on CNN, says Kamala Harris is "losing badly."

"The problem with another debate is that it's just too late voting has already started."

"She's had her chance to do it with Fox... but now she wants to do… pic.twitter.com/LeNTo38wVA

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 21, 2024

Voter Sentiment Breakdown

Voters from both parties are divided on whether a second debate would be productive, but Democrats largely support a second debate and Republicans do not.

• 42% of Republicans support a second debate, while 58% oppose it.
• 62% of Democrats favor another debate, with 38% opposed.

• Since the debate, national sentiment toward Trump has remained strong, surging from 52% the day following the debate to 55% today.
• Harris’s national sentiment has dipped from 47% the day following the debate to 45% today.

• In swing states, Trump has surged from an even 49% support for both candidates on the day of the debate to 50% for Trump today compared to 47% for Harris.

• Electoral college support also looks good for Trump with Republicans at 49% compared to Democrats at 47%.

Why Democrats Want a Second Debate

Among Democrats, the desire for a second debate stems from three key motivations:

• Hold Trump accountable: The top reason is an opportunity for Harris to challenge Trump and "call him out” for his dangerous and objectionable policies and rhetoric.
• Showcase Harris’s policies: Many also view a second debate as a chance for Harris to more clearly present her policies.
• Clarify issues for voters: Some Democrats believe another debate would help undecided voters gain clarity on important topics like healthcare and immigration.

Democrats who oppose a second debate cite:

• Skepticism about Trump’s participation: Some doubt Trump will engage seriously or fairly. They say he will refuse or use it to spread “misinformation.”
• Unproductive focus on personality: Some say another debate will devolve into personal attacks, giving Trump the spotlight over substantive issues.
• Harris’s ability to perform: Critics within the party worry Harris might struggle to effectively counter Trump’s aggressive tactics and off-the-cuff remarks.

Why Republicans Don’t Want Another Debate

Republicans largely dismiss or oppose the idea of another debate:

• Concerns about Trump’s performance: There’s unease about Trump’s ability to stay focused during debates. Some worry another debate would not help him.
• Debate bias concerns: Many are also critical of media outlets like CNN they view as biased in favor of Harris and actively attacking and fact-checking Trump.
• Nothing useful in a debate: Some say voters know who Trump is and will not find out anything informative from Harris, therefor another debate won't sway votes.

Those who support a second debate say:

• Redemption for Trump: Some Republicans think Trump deserves another chance to perform better, hoping in a second debate he would clearly defeat Harris.
• Show Harris’s true policies: Some say another chance to challenge Harris more directly on policy issues can still sway some undecided voters.
• Biased media: Those who say the ABC debate was unfair hope a second one will either be fair or more strongly point out bias if CNN moderators reveal bias.

What Happens if the Debate Takes Place?

Should Trump decide to accept the invitation, the potential outcomes are uncertain. For Harris, a second debate is a critical opportunity to make up lost ground. As Trump’s numbers grow, she needs a high-profile event to shift momentum back in her favor.

However, for a public sentiment comeback to be successful, Harris would need an extremely strong showing. Harris needs to resonate with swing voters on issues that matter most like the economy and the border. But she faces a challenge from progressive voters who prioritize social justice and anti-Israel issues, which alienate moderates.

For Trump, the stakes of another debate are high. While his base remains enthusiastic, another chaotic appearance could be a double-edged sword. While MAGA voters will likely continue with strong support, moderates on the fence may not like another spectacle like the viral Springfield cats and dogs issue.

MIG Reports data from American conversations about the first weekend of early voting shows Trump positivity. Weighted analysis suggests the likely direction of mid-Friday through mid-Saturday early voting, as well as general discussion and sentiment trends.

According to voter discussions, Donald Trump has roughly even odds of leading in initial early voting. This assessment is made with moderate confidence, based on multiple MIG Reports data sets which—though they are not polls—often produce similar results to trusted polling.

Voter Reaction Analysis

• Trump: 66.80%
• Harris: 32.29%

Data suggests Donald Trump may lead up to 66.8% of early voting with his strongest positions on immigration, border security, and the economy. There is some concern regarding international conflict due to Trump’s polarizing leadership style—particularly regarding Israel and Ukraine).

Meanwhile, Harris does not hold a stronger position on the national security front. Harris’s support is found in discussions about healthcare, climate policy, and abortion. Harris gains ground with voters focusing on women’s rights and economic reform, although criticisms of her perceived ineffectiveness and lack of clear policy positions is pervasive.

Border Security

Border security is a dominant issue in early voter discussions, particularly for Trump supporters. Voters cite Trump's strong stance on securing the border, his push for stricter immigration policies, and his commitment to reducing illegal immigration as major reasons for their support.

Critics of Harris point to her leniency on immigration and "open borders" policies. They frame her approach as a security risk. Across voter conversations, including in early voting states, border security consistently ranks as a high priority issue. This leads to Trump gaining overwhelming support with voters who want border security urgently.

Preference for Trump also dominates about immigration policy, which many discuss with border security. His proposed wall and efforts to deport illegal immigrants resonates with voters worried about national security. Harris get criticism for her immigration policies, though some appreciate her focus on human rights and a path to citizenship for immigrants.

Economy

The economy is the other most frequently discussed issue for both candidates, though the tone varies significantly. Trump supporters praise his tax cuts, job creation, and efforts to stimulate economic growth—especially in sectors like manufacturing and small business.

Harris supporters focus on her plans to reduce inequality, provide healthcare for all, and tackle the rising cost of living. While Harris gains voters concerned about middle-class economics, Trump is the dominant choice for those focused on economic stability and conservative financial policies.

Social Justice

For Harris, social justice is a key issue among progressive voters. Discussions about her policies on racial equality, police reform, and civil rights play a central role in her appeal.

Among progressives, Trump is viewed as unsympathetic to social justice concerns as they accuse him of exacerbating racial tensions. The polarized nature of this debate shows division between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats overwhelmingly preferring Harris on social issues.

Healthcare

Healthcare is also important for Harris’s supporters. Voters are drawn to her positions on expanding access to healthcare, supporting Medicare for All, and lowering prescription drug prices.

Criticisms of Trump’s healthcare policies, particularly his efforts to dismantle Obamacare are rampant among those who prioritize healthcare access. Trump supporters are more likely to praise his administration’s deregulation efforts in the healthcare industry, focusing on lowering costs and expanding options for consumers. Many also appreciate his alignment with RFK Jr.’s health platform.

Abortion

Abortion is a particularly important issue for Harris supporters, especially among women and progressives. Harris’s pro-choice stance and her vocal support for protecting abortion rights is a pillar of her platform, gaining a large share of her voters.

Trump’s supporters, particularly those with conservative values, are strongly opposed to abortion and prefer his efforts to restrict abortion access and appoint pro-life judges to the Supreme Court. The debate over abortion is a clear line of division between the two candidates, with highly emotional and polarized discourse.

The Mood for 2024

There is a noticeable anti-establishment tone throughout voter discussions, particularly among Trump supporters. They frequently voice distrust of the current political and media systems. These voters frame their support for Trump as a rebellion against entrenched elites, corrupt governance, and bureaucratic overreach. They particularly highlight border security, economic regulation, and perceived threats to national sovereignty.

For Harris supporters, while less overtly anti-establishment, there is still some frustration with the status quo. The is a point of contention regarding social justice, healthcare, and economic inequality. Progressive voters express a desire reform, but their stance is more about transforming the current system from within, rather than overthrowing it.

Overall, the anti-establishment sentiment is stronger and more explicitly expressed on the conservative side, whereas progressive voters are more focused on reforming the existing structures rather than rejecting them entirely.

MIG Reports data shows which messaging points from the Trump campaign resonate most with Independent and crossover who support him. Several key factors increase voter enthusiasm among potentially new Republican voters.

Trump’s campaign effectively taps into urgent voter concerns about economic security, border control, law and order, and anti-establishment sentiments. These issues are driving engagement and loyalty among swing voter groups.

Border Security and Immigration

The border is consistently a top issue among Republicans, Independents, and even some Democrats. Its prominence in American discourse is effectively galvanizing Independent and swing voters. Trump's hardline stance on securing the U.S.-Mexico border, enforcing immigration laws, and building a wall deeply resonates with voters who prioritize national security and economic stability.

Many moderate voters view Trump as the only candidate who addresses their concerns about the negative impact of illegal immigration and their desperation for strict border control. This issue consistently drives enthusiasm, with many expressing urgency for immigration reform and a return to Trump-era policies.

Economic Growth and Populism

Another pillar of Trump's moderate appeal is the economy. Voters respond positively to his policies aimed at reducing taxes, deregulating industries, and creating jobs through an "America First" economic agenda. Independent and crossover voters who feel left behind by globalization see Trump's protectionist trade policies and focus on revitalizing American industries as solutions to their economic frustrations.

Trump's specific proposals, such as eliminating taxes on overtime pay, tips, and Social Security benefits, are particularly well-received, fueling optimism that these changes will directly improve their financial situations. This economic populism appeals to voters who believe Trump will prioritize their financial well-being over corporate or elite interests.

Healthcare affordability and accessibility are also critical concerns among Independent and crossover voters. Many express frustration with the rising cost of healthcare and limited access to affordable insurance. They link costs to broader economic challenges.

Voters respond positively to proposals aimed at reducing healthcare costs and increasing access to affordable care, viewing these policies as essential components of economic stability and middle-class support .

Law and Order

There is growing Trump enthusiasm among those concerned with rising crime and public safety. His strong stance on curbing crime and supporting law enforcement appeals to voters who feel uneasy about rampant crime in Democrat-run regions.

Americans are disillusioned with Biden-Harris policies for public safety. Trump's emphasis on restoring order connects with voters who want leadership motivated to protect American communities and uphold traditional values.

Anti-Establishment

A growing segment of anti-establishment voters are also moving to support Trump along with figures like RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard. These voters feel disconnected from the political system and view Trump as standing in opposition to the corporate and political elite.

Many voters gravitate toward Trump’s message of being an outsider who challenges systems and institutions. This position makes anti-establishment voters feel their frustrations with government corruption and media bias are heard. The idea of "draining the swamp" remains a potent rallying cry, with many seeing Trump as uniquely positioned to shake up the establishment and introduce real change in Washington.

National Sovereignty and “America First”

Trump's opposition to globalism, international institutions, and trade deals resonates with voters concerned about the loss of American jobs and the erosion of national identity. His patriotic messaging, which emphasizes American exceptionalism, strikes a chord with voters who are anxious about the future of the country and want a leader who prioritizes American interests.

Support for Military and Veterans

The Biden-Harris administration’s repeated disregard for veterans and Gold Star families infuriates certain moderate voters who support the military. Enthusiasm is strong among Independent voters—particularly those who feel slighted and neglected by Democrats. Trump's promises to increase military spending and improve veterans' benefits play well with voters who prioritize national defense and view veterans as deserving more robust support.

MIG Reports analysis reveals several topics about which some on the right are asking, "why is nobody talking about this?" There is a sense of urgency in these conversations, indicating feelings of disillusionment among voters with accusations of media dismissal.

Topics vary by volume, discussion intensity, and the demographic focus of those expressing concern. The largest discussions are around border security, the economy, national security, media bias, and the most recent assassination attempt.

Summary of Findings

• 40% of conversation is focused on border security and its impact on communities.
• 30% of discussions are focused on the economy, with widespread frustration over inflation, taxation, and government spending.
• 15% of discussions are on Ukraine and Russia, reflecting fears about national security and foreign policy.
• 10% focuses on media bias, driven by frustrations over censorship and selective reporting.
• 5% of the conversation is on the assassination attempt, highlighting concerns about political violence and media silence.

Border Security

Border security is the highest volume discussion, capturing 40% of conversations. Americans are frustrated about the lack of government action and media scrutiny on the border. These critiques often accompany talk of the consequences of illegal immigration on citizen communities. The debate intensifies around specific cases, like the situation in Springfield, Ohio, where an influx of 20,000 Haitian migrants significantly increases the town's population.

Voters are concerned about the strain on local resources, with 63% of likely voters blaming Kamala Harris for the surge in illegal immigration. This sentiment spreads broadly among conservative and Republican-leaning voters who view the government's response as inadequate.

Discourse frequently highlights the economic burden of illegal immigration and the increased threats to national security. The prominence of this topic reflects its great importance to voters in 2024.

The Economy

The second most prominent topic, composing 30% in the conversation, is the economy. Voters are frustrated over rising inflation, taxation, and government spending. They often compare current economic policies to those under the Trump administration.

In one data set, 75% of conversations mention economic topics, while 60% specifically address inflation. The rising cost of living—like a 40% increase in food prices—amplifies concerns among middle-class individuals.

Discussions also extend to taxes, with debates over how government spending and national debt impact future generations. This focus on economic issues shows American anxiety about financial stability and a belief that Kamala Harris is not addressing these matters effectively.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Global security concerns, particularly related to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, account for 15% of discussions. There is great alarm over the potential for escalating tensions and the risk of a wider conflict. Around 75% of voters voicing concerns are conservatives who criticize the Biden-Harris administration's foreign policy. They fear Democratic policies increase the risk of global conflict and nuclear war.

There is a growing sense of urgency that the dangers of war are not adequately addressed in political discourse or media coverage. Fears of global conflict and anxiety about national security cause many to point out a lack of media attention to Biden-Harris policies.

Media Bias

Around 10% of the conversation is focused on media bias. Discussions reveal frustrations with perceived media censorship, selective reporting, and the marginalization of conservative voices. For instance, one data set indicates 71% of voters are upset by mainstream media bias. They often specifically mention bias against Donald Trump and other conservative figures.

Discussions frequently touch on concerns about the media shaping public opinion and suppressing critical viewpoints. Many feel this bias leads to the lack of discourse on key issues like border security and the economy. The relatively lower weight of this topic compared to others suggests that while media bias is a significant concern, it often acts as a framing device for broader discussions rather than being the central focus itself.

Assassination Attempts on Trump

Already a smaller discussion topic compared to other issues, the assassination attempts on Trump carry significant emotional weight among conservative and Republican voters. Around 65% of conservatives are expressing grace concern about these attempts, highlighting the double standard in media coverage. They often compare lack of media coverage for the assassination attempts to similar events involving Democratic politicians.

Voters express anxiety over political violence and a belief that the issue is being downplayed or ignored, contributing to a broader narrative of media bias. While it garners focused attention, the narrower scope of this topic limits its overall prominence in the discourse.

Recently, the Teamsters Union released the results of internal straw poll, electronic poll, and telephone poll shows significant favor toward Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. This is a shift from polling showing a Democratic lead prior to Biden dropping from the presidential race.

MIG Reports analysis of discourse shows union sentiment moving against Harris and why union workers are gravitating toward Trump.

TEAMSTERS RELEASE PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT POLLING DATA

“For the past year, the Teamsters Union has pledged to conduct the most inclusive, democratic, and transparent Presidential endorsement process in the history of our 121-year-old organization—and today we are delivering on… pic.twitter.com/CnFNN9uosx

— Teamsters (@Teamsters) September 18, 2024

Trump's Lead Among Union Workers

Donald Trump has a significant lead among union workers, a critical working and voting group of Americans. Between 58% and 60% support Trump according to recent Teamsters polling. MIG Reports data reflects similar sentiments in voter discussions. Union workers, particularly those in industries like manufacturing and construction, are shifting toward Trump. They say his policies align better with their economic interests and job security.

• MIG Reports data shows enthusiasm for Trump among 65.2% of union workers compared to 34.8% for Harris.

Enthusiasm for Trump

The enthusiasm for Trump among union workers is notable and strong, potentially signaling a significant voting bloc shift. Many union members admire Trump’s populist approach and his willingness to challenge the establishment. His "America First" policies, particularly on trade and immigration, resonate deeply with workers who feel threatened by outsourcing and illegal immigration.

Trump’s tough stance on these issues has created a sense of loyalty among union workers. They believe he is the only candidate willing to fight for their jobs and livelihoods. This enthusiasm is reflected in online discussions, where workers express admiration for Trump’s leadership and economic policies.

Reasons for Support

The top issues union workers cite with their support are Trump’s stances on:

• Trade
• Immigration
• Job creation

His trade policies, which focus on protecting American industries and reducing outsourcing, appeal directly to workers who fear losing jobs to foreign competition. His tough rhetoric on immigration, which many view as a threat to job security and wage growth, further solidifies his support.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris faces significant challenges with gaining union worker support. While she has attempted to court their support through endorsements from labor unions and promises of progressive policies, her association with the Democratic establishment and perceived focus on social justice issues over economic concerns alienates many. Union members skeptical of her record on trade and labor rights often see Harris as out of touch with their immediate needs, particularly regarding job security and economic growth.

Harris's Struggles

While Harris’s platform includes policies aimed at workers’ rights, raising the minimum wage, and addressing income inequality, these issues do not seem to resonate as strongly as Trump’s focus on job security and trade protection. Harris is perceived as more aligned with corporate interests and global trade practices, which many view as harmful to their industries. This disconnect has led to a lack of enthusiasm for her candidacy, as many union members remain unconvinced, she can effectively represent their interests.

Political discourse has intensified following the Trump versus Harris debate, with MIG Reports data showing Trump continuing to surge as Harris loses momentum. Stories like the infamous Springfield, Ohio incident, where rumors swirled about Haitian migrants allegedly consuming cats and dogs, served to further polarize partisan divides. Against a backdrop of ire toward the media and Democrats, a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump also ignites passions on both sides.

• National sentiment toward Trump remains strong, maintaining at least a 5-point lead over Harris since the debate.
• Republican support across the electoral college remains tight, with Democrats gaining slight ground since the debate.

Media Frenzy and Voter Anger

After the debate, headlines fixated on Springfield and the media’s demonization of Trump. The controversial Haitian migrant story brought the media and Democrats’ integrity to the forefront with Republicans hammering the underlying issue of forced migration. Democrats, meanwhile, focused on claims of misinformation from Trump and J.D. Vance, which the media said foments xenophobia and fear, leading to reported bomb threats in Springfield.

JUST IN: Ohio governor says all 33 bomb threats against Springfield, Ohio have been hoaxes that are coming from overseas.

Just another media-fueled hoax.

Governor Mike DeWine said the threats are coming from "one particular country."

"33 separate bomb threats, each one of… pic.twitter.com/JHXQqBOAEe

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 16, 2024

Ohio governor Mike DeWine’s confirmation that all 33 bomb threats in Springfield were hoaxes by foreign actors continued to stir anger from Trump supporters against the media and Democrats.

Next, Americans grew furious with the media after the second assassination attempt on Trump. Many fair-minded Americans—including former CNN anchor Chris Cuomo—express displeasure with rhetoric from Democrats and the media, who blame Trump’s own tone and language for the assassination attempt.

Watching Chris Cuomo get redpilled is absolutely incredible pic.twitter.com/Ew1Dr0xj4W

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) September 17, 2024

Democrats, represented by White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre still refuse to change their language against Trump. Even when called out by reporters, Jean-Pierre doubled down on accusations against Republicans as dangerous.

KJP rages at Fox's @Pdoocy:

Doocy: "How many more assassination attempts on Donald Trump until the president, vice president, and you pick a different word other than threat?"

KJP: "I disagree with your question." pic.twitter.com/1YSMDwXqnS

— Media Research Center (@theMRC) September 17, 2024

The Big Picture: Kamala Craters

MIG Reports analysis of likely voter base turnout among Trump and Harris supporters paints a striking picture.

• 73.7% of Trump supporters express approval and intention to vote for him.
• 52.08% of Kamala Harris supports voice approval and intention to vote.
• This is compared to 72% likely turnout for Trump and 64% for Harris pre-debate.

This gap highlights the surging enthusiasm for Trump against a loss of enthusiasm for Harris. In addition, average sentiment in conversations about Trump and Harris shows 47% approval toward Trump versus 30% toward Harris.

Conversations Mentioning Trump

• 47% of voters nationally express approval toward Trump.
• 25.5% explicitly express opposition to Trump.
• 24.5% are undecided, though a portion of the group say they lean toward Trump.

Conversations Mentioning Harris

• 29.5% of voters nationally express approval toward Harris.
• 46% explicitly express opposition to Harris.
• 20.5% are undecided or unengaged.

These numbers illustrate why Trump, despite negative press, assassination attempts, and relentless Democratic criticism, continues to maintain a robust core of dedicated voters. By contrast, Harris struggles to consolidate even her own base, facing widespread skepticism and disengagement.

Swing States and the Battle for 2024

Swing states are critical to the outcome of the 2024 election, and data suggests Kamala Harris is losing ground in key battlegrounds. Despite a small sentiment bump in some MIG Reports data sets, voter conversations about Harris remain negative.

MIG Reports initiates analysis, weighing general sentiment embedded in conversations. Analysis incorporates negativity about the assassination attempt among MAGA voters in conversations mentioning Trump as well as negativity from Democrats about Trump's rhetoric. This suggests conversation analysis remains consistent with a picture of surging support for trump and falling support for Harris.

CBS News recently reported, in critical blue counties in Nevada, reporters were only about to find a single Harris supporter. These reports align with voter sentiment analysis online.

CBS IN NEVADA: “In every single restaurant, the people willing to talk to us, we could only find one Harris supporter in every restaurant and we left no stone unturned”

pic.twitter.com/RVA0PGOC7t

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 17, 2024

Swing State Voter Sentiment

• Trump’s strong appeal to blue-collar and rural voters, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, is driving much of his momentum.
• Harris struggles with perceptions of being "out of touch" with everyday Americans, an issue amplified by her progressive policies on immigration and the economy.

Why Voters Are Leaning Toward Trump or Harris

Kamala Harris

Support

• Social justice and equality: Supporters view Harris as a champion for marginalized groups, particularly on issues like healthcare and civil rights.
• Progressive policies: Voters value her commitment to addressing climate change and economic inequality.
• Leadership style: For some, Harris represents a strong, modern leader capable of navigating the complexities of global politics.

Opposition

• Economic concerns: Her policies on taxes and healthcare attract skepticism, especially from middle-class voters.
• Weak on immigration: Critics argue Harris has failed to secure the border, promoting open borders and forced migration.
• Character issues: There is a widespread belief that Harris lacks integrity, stemming from her policy flip-flops and public statements.

Donald Trump

Support

• Economic growth: Trump’s policies on taxes and deregulation appeal to a broad base who value economic stability.
• Border security: Voters express desire for Trump’s tough stance on immigration, securing the border, and deportation.
• Perception of strength: Despite controversial rhetoric, voters view Trump as someone who "gets things done" and stands up to political elites.
• Law enforcement: Americans like his strong emphasis on law and order.

Opposition

• Divisive rhetoric: Trump’s language on race, gender, and social issues alienates many undecided voters.
• Abortion: Many who oppose Trump cite his stance on abortion as a key factor.
• Concerns about temperament: Many raise questions about Trump's fitness for office, citing his demeanor as "unpresidential."

Where the Race Stands

Looking ahead, the data suggests Trump maintains a solid path to victory, with his core supporters holding strong and voicing enthusiasm for turning out. Harris faces the daunting task of both positioning herself against Trump but energizing a growing apathetic and divided Democratic base. Trump’s ability to rally voters—despite media opposition and political violence—will likely be pivotal in securing a win.

MIG Reports analysis of sentiment and support for Kamala Harris among Democratic voters reveals an enthusiasm gap. While some express strong support for her policies and leadership, most are not driven by Harris’s personal or candidate appeal. Instead, much of the enthusiasm stems from dislike for Donald Trump and his MAGA agenda.

Harris, who was deeply unpopular among Democrats during her 2020 presidential bid and in her tenure as Biden’s VP, seems to still be struggling with positive voter perceptions. This analysis explores key patterns behind voter support for Kamala Harris, highlighting how anti-Trump sentiment shape Democratic voter behavior.

Can Harris Pull Out a Win on Trump Hatred?

In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris faces similar challenges to those in 2016 and 2004, where negative sentiment against the opposition wasn’t enough to drive turnout. In both elections, opposition to Trump and Bush was strong, but lack of enthusiasm for Clinton and Kerry respectively resulted in lower Democratic turnout.

Google search trends indicate, in the previous two election cycles, the highest spikes in user searches for “register to vote” happened in mid to late September.

This year, mail-in ballot requests in critical states like Pennsylvania are down for Democrats, both compared to Republicans and compared to Democrats in 2020.

📢 PENNSYLVANIA DATA DROP ‼️

Mail-in ballot requests R vs D

2020 (50 days out)
GOP: 376,956
Dem: 1,101,962

2024 (50 days out)
GOP: 321,077
Dem: 798,946

KAMALA IS DOWN 303,016 requests compared to 2020.

Dems are shaking in their crocs!!!

— Cliff Maloney (@Maloney) September 17, 2024

Harris's policies on immigration and Palestine are controversial within her own party, with many Democrats either finding her too liberal or disagreeing with her foreign policy. If her campaign relies solely on Trump hatred without generating positive enthusiasm for her candidacy, voter turnout may fall short. This may result in a repeat of the 2016 and 2004 elections, where Democrats were surprised to find opposition wasn’t enough to secure victory.

Enthusiasm is Actually Anti-Trump Fervor

Conditional Support for Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris has a base of support among Democratic voters, according to MIG Reports analysis of online discussions. Many voters praise her performance in the debate, her background as a prosecutor, and her stance on issues like social justice and healthcare.

Discussions of Kamala Harris which do not focus on the election show 43.6% express direct support for her. However, this support is not as stark with deeper analysis. In conversations mentioning Harris's policies or leadership positively, reactions also focus on the political climate over her accomplishments.

Criticism of Trump as a Driving Force

Much of the conversation among Democrats which mention Kamala Harris are not about her but rather about Donald Trump. In election-specific discussions, 25% of conversations focus solely on criticizing Trump. They label him as representing "terror" and "lies.” Harris supporters largely incorporate this sentiment in all their supportive mentions of Harris.

Voters frame Harris as a necessary opponent to Trump, positioning her as a vehicle for resisting Trump’s influence rather than rallying around her personal achievements or vision. This pattern suggests, for many Democrats, Harris represents the best hope for defeating Trump, rather than an inspiring candidate on her own.

Voter Behavior Motivated by Opposition

In conversations mentioning Trump and Harris in a head-to-head race, there is a mix of positive and negative sentiments about Harris. While 42% of the conversation was positive, much of that positivity is focused on her role as a foil to Trump. Voters view her as a champion against his policies.

Broader trends in Democratic voter enthusiasm show an urgency to reject Trump outweighing affirmative support for Harris.

Kamala as a Symbol of Opposition

In many cases, Kamala Harris's support appears to be symbolic, with voters rallying behind her as a replacement for Biden and a figurehead of the Party. While some say they appreciate her leadership and policies, 23.5% primarily criticize Trump and his allies. In addition to her role as a political opponent to Trump, Harris’s identity as a woman of color adds to the symbolic nature of her candidacy.

For many Democrats, her race and gender are celebrated as markers of progress, positioning her as a trailblazer in American politics. However, her identity also draws skepticism for others, with some feeling her symbolism outweighs her qualifications. This divide underscores the conditional nature of her support, where enthusiasm hinges on what she represents rather than her achievements.