Recent Border Patrol encounters with Chinese nationals crossing the border illegally shows an alarming increase in the last two years. This news corresponds with American voters’ growing dissatisfaction with border security and threats posed by China. Opinions fall somewhat along party lines, but even Democrats are becoming more distressed about the Biden administration’s border policy.

MIG Reports analysis indicates border and U.S. security issues are a top priority for voters in 2024. These issues are especially critical in swing states where voter opinions promise to weigh heavily on presidential election results this fall.

• Most voters currently blame President Biden for the disastrous border situation and rising threats of Chinese infiltration.
• In swing states, Trump gains higher approval on both border security and China, averaging 47% to Biden’s 41% on the border and 46% to Biden’s 43% on China.

• Nationally, Republican sentiment on the border is slightly lower than Democrat sentiment – and overall sentiment is lower still.
• Sentiment on China nationally is tighter overall and among Democrats and Republicans. But Republicans have a lower average sentiment at 45%.

American Views on China

Republicans are more likely to voice concerns about China when it comes to illegal immigration. This group views China as a significant threat to national security – including the alarming number of Chinese nationals apprehended by Border Patrol.

• According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, encounters with Chinese nationals illegally entering the country have jumped to a shocking 22,233 so far in 2024, up from 342 in 2021.

Conservative voters are also concerned about economic pressure from China, intellectual property theft, and the potential for cyber-attacks. Right leaning voters tend to be very worried about the possibility that China is intentionally infiltrating the U.S. border with military aged men. They view China as an antagonistic force that is both physically and digitally attempting to compromise U.S. security.

While many liberal voters also view China as a potential threat, they are more likely to emphasize diplomatic and economic measures to address the issue, rather than military action. They may also be more focused on human rights issues in China, and less concerned about border infiltration.

Another prominent viewpoint in the China discussion is the notion that if authoritarian regimes like Russia and China gain victories, it could strengthen other authoritarian states and promote their aggressive actions.

Political Blame Falls on President Biden

Many voters on both sides of the aisle explicitly link the issue of border control to the failings of the current administration. Most express disapproval for President Biden’s border policies and apparent disregard for an issue that concerns so many Americans. These criticisms also include frustration with the Democratic Party’s handling of the border issue, overall.

• Recent AP polling revealed that 58% of Americans view border security as extremely or very important. This includes 46% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans.

The question of who should be allowed to immigrate to the U.S. is also contentious topic. Some express a preference for immigrants who contribute to the economy, while others prefer to limit or halt immigration completely. Republicans are especially likely to voice objections to single, military aged men, from any country, being admitted to the U.S.

Overall, voters are strongly advocating for stricter enforcement of immigration laws. Some go so far as to call for mass deportation of illegal immigrants.

Resentment About the Border Wall

Although Donald Trump enjoys higher approval among voters regarding border security, there is some criticism for his failure to fully build the border wall during his term. Many Republicans and conservatives point to the border wall as a key campaign promise he did not fulfill.

This criticism is often mentioned with critiques of the Republican Party's handling of border control. Some suggest Trump and Republican failures show the inherent difficulties of securing the border.

At the same time, more liberal voters express skepticism about the feasibility of the border wall, questioning its cost and practicality. Some also propose a wall on the northern border, often in response to potential political changes in Canada.

An accidental strike by Israel in Gaza that hit a group of World Central Kitchen workers has sparked a flurry of reactions online. The issue was trending on twitter with World Central Kitchen and IDF both receiving nearly half a million tweets. Responses to the tragedy tend to fall along party lines, although most people express sympathy and condolences for the loss of life.

Overall, Democrats and progressives are enraged at Israel and the IDF for allowing causing these civilian deaths. They largely blame Israel for unnecessary casualties and take the opportunity to continue pushing for a ceasefire.

Republicans and more pro-Israel moderates general blame Hamas for generating conflict amid civilian territories. They tend to view the tragedy as a heartbreaking reality of war, which Israel does its best to avoid.

• Typical trends of American sentiment on issues related to the Israel-Hamas conflict see approval in the low 40% range.
• After the accidental strike with aid worker casualties, both security issues and Israel-Palestine approval dropped to 39%.
• Discussion about both subjects has remained high, reaching nearly 10,000 mentions daily for the last week.

Democrats Double Down on a Ceasefire

Following the aid worker casualties in Gaza, Democrats are primarily emphasizing human rights violations, condemning the strike as an act of indiscriminate violence. They express deep disgust for what they call a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and call for an immediate ceasefire.

Many who identify as progressives or Democrats also criticize the U.S.'s seemingly one-sided support for Israel and lack of condemnation for civilian casualties. They advocate for a more Palestine-friendly approach that would prioritize the rights and needs of Palestinians.

However, there is an internal divide within the Democratic party. More progressive members tend to be vocal or activist in support for Palestine, calling for Biden and the administration to stop taking an Israel-sympathetic approach. Many of them are even dropping support for Biden and voting "Uncommitted" in Democrat primary elections. Moderate and traditional Democrats are more likely to remain pro-Israel, condemning Hamas and its terror attack on October 7.

Democrats online emphasize the importance of protecting non-combatants in conflict zones. They are criticizing the lack of precision in military operations by the IDF and call for increased oversight and accountability. They are also praising the World Central Kitchen workers, blaming the IDF for stopping them from bringing aid to Gaza.

Most people on the left highlight the proportionality of Israel's response to Hamas. They are quick to condemn the accidental strike, citing it as a clear example of overreaction by the IDF. This group is more likely to criticize Israel's policies and America’s pro-Israel stance in the conflict.

Republicans Lament the Tragedies of War and Terrorism

Republicans and more moderate Democrats are more likely to reiterate their support for Israel. They hold the accidental strike as tragedy and an unfortunate result of Israel's right to self-defense against Hamas terrorism. These voters tend to blame Hamas for initiating the war and for placing civilians needlessly in the crossfire.

Israel supporters argue Hamas uses civilians as human shields, which makes military precision difficult and leads to unnecessary civilian casualties. Some Republicans are also criticizing Democrats for their misguided promotion of Palestinian aggression and misunderstanding the complexities of Middle East conflict.

Republicans tend to lament the unfortunate reality of collateral damage in conflict situations. They stress that the incident underscores a need for decisive action to resolve the conflict and to eliminate conditions which force such operations in the first place.

This group argues the incident is a consequence of Hamas' tactic of using civilian areas for military purposes. Republicans are more likely to support continued U.S. military aid to Israel – although that view is not universally held by more isolationist Republicans.

Many assert the solution to the conflict involves defeating Hamas and other terrorist groups. However, most people express their condolences for the tragic loss of life and hope for a thorough investigation into the incident.

Discussions about Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) among Democrat voters in the last few days seem to be increasingly polarizing. After her recent comments calling for the U.S. to cease supporting Israel and to stop the “genocide” being perpetrated on Gaza, many voters are unhappy. AOC is one among several Democrat politicians to draw criticism from voters over the Israel-Palestine conflict — an issue that MIG Reports data suggests will be important for the Democratic Party in this year's election.

Younger and more progressive Democrats tend to align more closely with AOC than more moderate voters. However, even pro-Palestine Democrats sometimes voice disapproval that AOC’s language is not strong enough in condemning Israel.

More traditional and moderate Democrat voters, however, have significant grievances with Ocasio-Cortez's rhetoric, emphasizing the growing divide within the Party.

• In the last seven days, overall support for AOC has averaged 43% with a low of 42%.
• Her approval on the topic of Palestine plummeted to 37% and support regarding Israel reached a low of 38%.

Top Issues Decreasing AOC’s Support

There are conflicting opinions among Democrats which seem to be decreasing support for Ocasio-Cortez. According to MIG Reports data, the most recurring criticisms include:

Her Use of “Genocide”

AOC's use of the term "genocide" to describe Israel's actions has drawn significant criticism. Critics argue the term is inappropriate and exaggerates the situation, which could potentially inflame tensions. This group often accuses her of exaggerating the situation in Gaza by calling it a genocide. They say that while the situation is horrific, it does not meet the definition of genocide.

Failing to Condemn Hamas

Some voters are taking issue with what they perceive as AOC's failure to sufficiently condemn Hamas and other terrorist organizations. They argue her focus on Israel's actions overlooks atrocities committed by Hamas. These critics also criticize AOC for not calling for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Ignoring Israel's Right to Self-Defense

Critics argue AOC downplays or dismisses Israel's right to self-defense against attacks. They suggest she should make clearer distinctions between the Israeli government's actions and the rights of Israeli citizens.

Accusation of Spreading Misinformation

There are also frequent assertions that AOC engages in spreading misinformation about the situation in Gaza – particularly regarding the amount of aid going into Gaza and the cause of famine in the region. They argue that more aid is going into Gaza now than before the conflict and any so-called famine is caused by Hamas hijacking aid for its own use.

They argue that Israel is not starving Gazans, citing evidence that food enters Gaza daily and suggesting that the situation could be improved if Egypt opened its crossings. They also argue that AOC should call for the surrender of Hamas to end the war.

Perception of anti-Israel bias

AOC also receives frequent accusations of having an anti-Israel bias in her comments and actions, which has alienated more moderate Democrat voters who support Israel.

More General Criticisms of Rep Ocasio-Cortez

There is recurring commentary on AOC’s understanding of complex issues. Some Democrats question her understanding of historical and geopolitical issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict and its underlying causes. They argue that she simplifies the issues and does not have a deep understanding of history, law, or international politics.

Similarly, some critics, often referring to her in derogatory terms, question AOC's general intelligence. They argue she is unqualified for her position and incapable of understanding complicated issues, which could decrease her credibility and support among voters.

Many moderate Democrats are also wary of AOC's political leanings, branding her as a socialist or even a communist. This is seen by some as too radical and a departure from the traditional principles of the party.

Recent online discussion about the terrorist attack in Moscow reveals a great deal of empathy and outrage among Americans. The attack is viewed as a heinous act of violence that has resulted in the loss of innocent lives.

American sentiment towards the attack emphasizes strong condemnation of terrorism, with many expressing their condolences to the victims and their families. There is a clear sense of unity against the act of terrorism, with many calling for an end to such acts of violence.

Prior to resigning, former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland promised this type of warfare as well as the assertion that the U.S. does not have a “Plan B” to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Online discussion shows a consensus of disapproval among Americans. The idea of terrorist attacks on civilians is not something that many Americans can condone or accept. While it's clear that there is a need to combat terrorism, the method of resorting to attacks on civilians is generally frowned upon.

Americans are unified in their condemnation of the terrorist attack in Moscow, and there is a strong sentiment towards ending terrorism. The idea of this type of warfare is not well received, and there is a general expectation that efforts should be made to prevent such attacks in the future.

The terrorist attack in Moscow is likely to continue fueling the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war as tense and filled with uncertainty. It has only escalated tensions, and the introduction of French troops to Ukraine also adds another layer of complexity to the situation. There's a pervasive worry about escalation and the potential for the conflict to spiral into a wider war.

While there's no clear consensus among Americans about the war itself, sentiment seems to be trending towards concern and disapproval. The war's ongoing nature, coupled with the recent terrorist attack and the involvement of more countries, could be leading to a decrease in support for the war among American voters.

Politically, it's likely the conflict could influence public opinion toward both President Biden and former President Trump, though it's unclear in what direction. If the situation continues to deteriorate, and the U.S. becomes more involved, it could continue to decrease support for whichever administration is perceived as mishandling the situation – especially with press pressing issues like the border for voters at home.

In conclusion, the current state of both the Russia-Ukraine war is causing a great deal of concern and division among Americans. The impact of this conflict on public sentiment towards political figures like Biden and Trump is still uncertain, but it's likely that their handling of these situations will play a significant role in shaping public opinion.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer received vocal negative responses following his comments about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Many voters did not approve of his call for new elections in Israel.

Schumer claimed that Netanyahu's government no longer fits the needs of Israel after the events of October 7 and has been too willing to tolerate the civilian toll in Gaza. He also compared Netanyahu to Putin and labeled him as an obstacle to peace.

Many people, including voters and other politicians, are criticizing Schumer for his remarks, saying he was unjustified in his rhetoric.

• Following his comments, discussion about Schumer online increased as his approval decreased.
• In the last two days, discussion about Schumer rose significantly from his average volume to nearly 2000 mentions.
• With the increase in discussion, Schumer’s overall approval also dropped, reaching 43% on the day of his Israel comments.
• Schumer’s support regarding Israel dropped slightly after his comments, while support regarding Palestine slightly increased.

Top Issues Decreasing Schumer’s Support

MIG Reports analysis shows the top influencing factors pushing Schumer’s approval down are related to Israel:

1. The first and most glaring issue causing support for Chuck Schumer to drop is his call for new elections in Israel. He has received considerable backlash for his interference in Israeli politics.
2. Schumer's public criticism of Benjamin Netanyahu has also been a divisive issue. While some agree with Schumer that Netanyahu's government is "stuck in the past," others see this as an unjustified attack.
3. Many critics accuse Schumer of siding with Hamas, a terrorist organization, over U.S. ally Israel.
4. Schumer is losing support for the perception of prioritizing partisan politics over the welfare of American hostages held by Hamas. People argue he should focus on securing their release, rather than calling for new elections in Israel.
5. Some accuse Schumer, who is Jewish, of betraying Israel and the Jewish community with his comments, saying his actions have shown him to be a poor "Guardian of Israel."

Overall, Schumer seems to be losing support among pro-Israel Democrats and much of the Jewish community. There are, however, some who support his comments.

Pro-Palestine Progressives Praise Schumer

A segment of progressive Democrats agreed with Schumer, stating that the Israeli government under Netanyahu has indeed lost its way and has become a pariah state. They also concurred with Schumer's suggestion that the war with Hamas has created a significant political issue for the Democrat Party, potentially costing them in the next election.

A few also applauded Schumer's call for a "fresh debate about the future of Israel" and his insistence on a future two-state solution. His remarks have been described as "remarkable," with praise for Schumer's assertion that Netanyahu's coalition "no longer fits the needs of Israel."

Progressive supporters argue that it's possible to support the Palestinians without supporting Hamas and to support Israel without supporting Netanyahu's government.

Israel Supporters Express Shock at Schumer’s Rhetoric

Many on the right and some of Schumer’s more moderate Democrat constituents vehemently disagree with his remarks about Israel. They say it was inappropriate and out of place for an American leader to involve himself in Israeli politics. For instance, Speaker Johnson called Schumer's comments, "highly inappropriate" and "plain wrong."

Schumer is receiving blowback for what many perceive as interference in Israel's internal affairs. Many say American politicians should let Israel and its people decide their own leadership. Some also suggested that Schumer's comments were primarily aimed at securing support from constituents who are in favor of Palestine.

There are comments labeling Schumer a "fake Jew" and saying honest Jewish people would not make such objectionable and interfering comments. Some voters even suggested a special vote in New York to remove Schumer from his position.

Overall, Schumer’s support seemed to dip because of the comments, highlighting the Democrat split over Israel or Palestine support, which MIG Reports has previously analyzed. Other politicians like John Fetterman have been criticized by the progressive wing of the Democrat Party. Many who were outraged at Schumer’s language accuse him of pandering to the Hamas wing of the Democrat Party.

American sentiment towards banning TikTok and President Trump's remarks about TikTok and Facebook reveals a deeply divided populace. The divide is largely along party and generational lines.

• Democrats generally express concerns about censorship and the restriction of freedom of expression, viewing the proposed ban as an overreach by the government.
• Republicans, on the other hand, largely support the proposed ban due to national security concerns. Many Trump supporters are skeptical that social media platforms try to restrict what users see and hear.
• Independents vary in their views, with some expressing concerns about data privacy while others worry about the impact on freedom of speech.

Age also plays a significant role in the conversation. Younger Americans, who make up a significant portion of TikTok users, are generally more opposed to the ban. Older Americans seem more supportive. Race and economic status, however, do not seem to play a significant role in the conversation, with views crossing racial and economic lines.

• President Biden on March 8th endorsed possible legislation that could lead to the popular video-sharing app TikTok being banned in the United States.
• Sentiment on Ideologies shows a split among political parties and respective leaders since the idea of banning TikTok has resurfaced.
• TikTok is expected to be most used/consumed social media platform in 2025 among U.S. adults.
  

Rebels Without a Cause

Former President Donald Trump's remarks about TikTok and Facebook evoked divided opinions. He posted on Truth Social, “If you get rid of TikTok, Facebook and Zuckerschmuck will double their business. I don't want Facebook, who cheated in the last Election, doing better. They are a true Enemy of the People!”

Many support his concerns about TikTok and Facebook's potential threats to national security and user privacy. Others see his comments as politically motivated and self-serving.

Democrats generally criticize Trump's comments as an attack on free speech and an attempt to control the narrative. Republicans largely agree with his criticisms of these platforms, fearing that social media only shows users what the platforms wants them to see.

Sentiment analysis shows mixed views on the potential Congressional legislation banning TikTok. Many Americans express skepticism and a general distrust towards politicians, irrespective of their stance on the issue.

Steven K. Nikoui is a Gold Star Father whose son was killed in Afghanistan. His arrest during President Joe Biden's State of the Union address has sparked significant controversy and debate. Nikoui was arrested for protesting Biden's handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal. Many view the arrest as an affront to Nikoui’s right to free speech and a blatant disregard for his personal loss.

The incident is even more contentious when contrasted with the lack of arrests during a pro-Palestine protest that blocked Joe Biden’s route to the SOTU. The protestors, who were demonstrating against the President's stance on Israel, were not apprehended. This lenience led to accusations of bias and unequal treatment. Critics argue that the difference in response is politically motivated, with the Biden administration showing tolerance towards protests that align with their political agenda while cracking down on those that do not.

The discourse regarding these two incidents has been polarized, with opinions largely divided along partisan lines. Biden supporters argue any comparisons between the two incidents are misguided. They attribute Nikoui's arrest to disruptive behavior during a highly important and sensitive occasion. They further contend that allowing the pro-Palestine protests was appropriate, given their peaceful nature and the protestors' right to free speech.

Critics argue the disparity in treatment between Nikoui and the Palestine protestors is a clear indication of the administration's selective enforcement of the law and disregard for the principles of free speech when it goes against their narrative.

Nikoui’s arrest also underscores the highly charged and divisive political environment in the U.S., with even a solemn occasion like the State of the Union becoming a hotbed for controversy and protest. This incident, along with the broader discourse it has inspired, is a stark reminder of the deep ideological divide that continues to characterize American politics.

Support

Support for Ukraine does not appear to be a major point of contention. Many American conservatives and liberals alike have voiced support for Ukraine, condemning Russian aggression. However, the level of support varies.  

While some Americans advocate for continued military and financial aid to Ukraine, others express a preference for diplomatic solutions or a more isolationist stance, resisting entanglement in foreign conflicts. Furthermore, online commentary suggests that, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a concern for Americans, it is not their primary focus. Domestic issues, particularly those related to political ideology and cultural shifts, appear to take precedence.

Americans who continue to support Ukraine often cite the country's commitment to democracy and sovereignty. There is a deep-rooted belief in the need for international cooperation to uphold these principles. However, some question how much support should be provided, particularly in terms of military aid, and express apprehension about the potential escalation of conflict. 

Those who are more apprehensive of supporting Ukraine have varied reasoning, ranging from general anti-war sentiment, concern over U.S. spending, Ukraine’s stance on supporting Israel against Palestine, and preferring to prioritize domestic issues like immigration.

Plan B

In terms of a Plan B if Ukraine loses the war, it seems many Americans are not fully aware of the intricacies of the situation. The narrative around this topic tends to be vague, often limited to calls for increased diplomatic efforts and negotiations. However, there is an underlying fear of the potential fallout should Ukraine lose the war, with some expressing concern about the possible expansion of Russian influence.

It's also important to note that public opinion can fluctuate based on current events and media coverage. Changes in the conflict's intensity, revelations about the human cost of the war, or shifts in U.S. domestic politics can all sway perceptions and attitudes towards the conflict in Ukraine. Prior to resigning as Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland spoke at length about U.S. commitment to “Plan A” and no necessity for a Plan B.

Skepticism and Doubt

Finally, there is a sense of skepticism towards Ukraine's status as an independent nation. Some allege it to be a CIA puppet, following a CIA coup in 2014. This perspective seems to underline the complexity of the conflict and various forces at play. 

There is a distinct lack of trust in information dissemination, with many Americans harboring suspicions about the media's portrayal of the war. This distrust is more pronounced among conservatives, who often express sentiment against mainstream media. They perceive it as biased and out of touch with the realities of ordinary Americans. The highly polarized political climate also breeds skepticism, as does the spread of misinformation on social media, and doubts about the credibility of mainstream media outlets. 

Opinions on President Biden's handling of the Ukraine War are deeply polarized. Some Americans express support, while others are highly critical, often linking their criticisms to broader issues such as immigration, perceived threats of communism, and allegedly rigged elections. There is a common thread of skepticism towards the administration's intentions and actions, with many believing that America is being led down a harmful path.

As President Biden prepares to deliver his State of the Union address, there are several pressing concerns Americans will require him to address. Some of the most pressing issues include foreign wars, securing the U.S. border, the economy and inflation, and the overall direction of the country.

Foreign Wars

The ongoing Israel-Palestine and Russia–Ukraine conflicts are expected to play a significant role in Biden's speech. Americans are looking for answers regarding America’s stance and plans regarding these international issues.

Biden's approach to these conflicts, particularly on the question of enforcing a ceasefire and his stance on Israel's occupation of Palestine, is of high interest for all voters. Given the conflict’s polarizing nature, Biden's words will likely be scrutinized by both critics and supporters.

This SOTU speech could prove a defining moment in his presidency, answering important questions voters have about the administration's approach to foreign policy.

Speech Forecast

• Biden will likely take a balanced approach given the divided view of Israel, especially within the Democrat party.
• 42% of Americans believe Israel's military response has been excessive.43% justify the current operations or believe they have not been aggressive enough. Biden will likely tread carefully to avoid alienating either group.

• The President may discuss recent U.S. efforts to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza, which have been met with mixed reactions.
• He will likely reiterate the country's commitment to providing humanitarian aid and ensuring it reaches those who need it most.
• Biden may also address the criticism from U.S. Armed Forces members who have condemned Israel's actions in Gaza.
  

The Border

The situation at the U.S. border continues to be a top issue for voters. Biden will likely address the administration's immigration policies, particularly regarding the influx of illegal immigrants. Critics argue that Biden's administration has compromised American security by letting in illegal immigrants without thorough background checks. Republicans have also called for impeachment over this issue, arguing it's the executive's duty to protect the border.

Speech Forecast

• President Biden is likely to present a more compassionate approach towards immigrants, emphasizing the need for comprehensive immigration reform and a path towards citizenship for undocumented individuals.
• He is expected to discuss the administration's efforts to manage the increase in arrivals, which many describe as a crisis.
• He may outline measures to process asylum seekers more efficiently, improve conditions in detention facilities, and address root causes of migration in Central America.

The Economy and Inflation

Biden's handling of the economy and rising inflation rates are other key areas of concern. Critics claim Biden has compromised the country's economic security. Biden will likely address plans to bolster the economy and tackle inflation.

Speech Forecast

• Biden is expected to focus on his administration's efforts to address inflation and support economic recovery in the wake of COVID.
• This could include references to his infrastructure and social spending plans, which he will argue are crucial for boosting productivity, reducing inequality, and ensuring long-term economic stability.
  

The Direction of the Country

The overall direction of America, including the state of democracy, is another significant topic Biden will likely address. Critics argue the administration has been negligent in its duties to the nation and American citizens. Supporters argue Biden has been successful in pushing historic pieces of legislation.

Speech Forecast

• Biden is likely to articulate a vision of unity and progress, despite the deep political divisions that exist.
• He is likely to stress the importance of bipartisanship and cooperation in tackling the country's challenges.
• Biden will most likely defend his administration's record in areas like pandemic response, climate change, and social justice.
• Lastly, he will likely address the impeachment calls and allegations of corruption in his administration, including claims against his family members.