The Democratic Party’s divide between its establishment base and progressive branches is growing. Overall, there seems to be a split among Democrats and progressives, with some continuing to support Israel's right to defend itself and others advocating for a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with an emphasis on human rights and international law. There is a strong sentiment of frustration towards the amount of military aid going to Israel, with some suggesting it should be reduced or cut off completely.
Some Democrats are supportive of the US's military aid to Israel, viewing it as necessary to combat threats from Hamas and other destabilizing forces in the Middle East. They believe that Iran, backed by Russia and China, is a significant threat to global peace, and that the US and its allies must remain vigilant. They also argue that Hamas has been a significant contributor to the ongoing conflict and suffering in Gaza, using aid money for military purposes instead of improving the lives of Palestinians.
On the other hand, there are Democrats and progressives who are critical of the US's military aid to Israel. They condemn the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and argue for a reassessment of the US's loyalty to Israel. They are concerned about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, accusing Israel of blocking aid and contributing to the suffering of the Palestinian people. Some go as far as calling for an end to US funding for Israel, equating Israel's actions in Gaza to genocide.
Talking About (Democrats)
Some of the more progressive Democrats express a sense of betrayal, calling it a "huge concession" that the bipartisan border-Israel-Ukraine package blocks all funding for UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East) from the US. They object to the idea of providing more money for Israel while reducing aid to Palestinian children.
The discussions also reveal a concern among Democrats about the potential implications of not passing the bill. Some users note that failure to pass the bill could lead to direct military confrontations in the Middle East and against Russia, suggesting a fear of escalation.
Ukraine Approval Remains low as overwhelming majority of Americans Focus Instead on Border Security and Immigration Crisis
Recent analysis from the Media Intelligence Group (MIG) offers a comprehensive look into how both American engagement and support for Ukraine remains low, in serious contrast from high levels seen at the start of the Ukraine conflict. These insights reveal that despite ongoing debates in Congress about further aid for Ukraine, American opinion remains unchanged and instead focused on America First principals.
Shifting Focus: MIG's data indicates that online engagement surrounding Global Affairs is viewed increasingly with an America First lens.
Engagement towards Ukraine is dwarfed by discussions about Border Security or more longstanding priorities like the US-Israeli alliance.
MIG found that over the last 30 days, Ukraine averages 1,106 online daily mentions, with a total of 33,185 mentions of Ukraine.
In contrast, discussions about Border Security and the Migrant Crisis averaged 8,836 daily online mentions, totaling 265,095 online mentions in the last 30 days.
Similarly, online conversations about Israel and Palestine are even more prominent, with a daily average of 9,072 online mentions and a total of 278,200 online mentions in the last 30 days.
Ukraine Hawks fail to sway Americans:
Further analysis from the MIG reveals American approval of Ukraine remains consistently below 45%, contrasting sharply with the high levels of backing seen at the start of the conflict.
In late 2023, Gallup found that American support for Ukraine had dropped sharply since the onset of Russia’s invasion.
When Russia forces had first breached Ukrainian defenses, American support for Ukraine stood at 66%. This dropped sharply in Gallup’s subsequent poll in October 2023, when 41% of respondents stated they believed the United States was doing too much for Ukraine.
MIG’s latest numbers from the last 30 days find support for Ukraine hasn’t budged. Despite many Ukraine Hawks in Congress making the case for further aid to Kiev, MIG finds Ukraine’s average approval stuck at 41%.
Worse, Ukraine’s approval reached 44% just three times in the last 30 days, while it fell below 40% for 7 days total.
America First, Here to Stay:
MIG's data underscores a growing shift in America’s focus in prioritizing an America First global perspective, as online discussions about Ukraine sink into further irrelevancy and are eclipsed by Border Security and Immigration debates.
Notably, these findings are supported by a recent Harvard Harris poll, which found Immigration as the top policy concern amongst Americans, well ahead of foreign policy but even surpassing inflation and the economy.
Despite unending frustrations with a Congress many believe is disconnected from the rest of America, recent comments from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell may reveal Americans are forcing D.C. to listen. This week, McConnell told Senate colleagues “When we started this, the border united us and Ukraine divided us” but that “The politics on this have changed.”
Recent MIG data shows that the discussion on the Israel-Hamas war appears to have a mix of both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine comments on platforms like X (formerly Twitter). However, the majority of hashtagged comments tend to lean more towards pro-Palestine sentiments.
On TikTok, pro-Palestine hashtags vastly outweigh pro-Israel hashtags in a way that is inconsistent with other social platforms across the internet. This discrepancy suggests that pro-Palestine content on TikTok may not be completely organic.
In addition, discussion about the Israel-Hamas conflict significantly increased on social media following the October 7 attack. Prior to the 7th, posts about Israel and Palestine on both X and TikTok were negligible and posts and views dramatically increased from October 7 on.
Posts Before and After October 7
Average daily posts on X 15 days before and after October 7
Posts using the hashtag #israel reached a high of 251,331 on X on October 7.
Posts using the hashtag #palestine reached a high of 136,498 on X on October 7.
Posts using the hashtag #israel reached a high of 181,500 on TikTok on October 7.
Posts using the hashtag #palestine reached a high of 403,872 on TikTok on October 14.
Pro-Palestine and Pro-Israel Hashtags
Since October 6, 2023, interest levels in pro-Palestine hashtags (#palestine and #freepalestine) have skyrocketed.
Based on total post counts and TikTok’s proprietary interest score, pro-Palestine posts reached a high of nearly 1 million between October 14-20, 2023.
In contrast, pro-Israel hashtags on TikTok only reached a high of just over 113,000 between October 7-13, 2023.
Pro-Palestine content on TikTok vastly outweighs pro-Israel content. Since October 6, there were a total of 10 times as many pro-Palestine hashtags on TikTok as pro-Israel hashtags.
On X, pro-Israel and pro-Palestine hashtags are much closer in volume. Tracking the hashtags #israel, #standwithisrael, #palestine, and #freepalestine, MIG data shows divided discussions.
At the end of October, pro-Palestine hashtags on X reached a high of approximately 250,000.
Pro-Israel hashtags on X reached a high of approximately 83,000 at the beginning of November.
Pro-Palestine content on X outweighs pro-Israel content, but only by less than double since the end of October.
What People Are Saying
Based on the content of the analyzed discussions online, it is apparent that the comments heavily favor Palestine.
Palestine
There is a high usage of hashtags such as #FreePalestine, #Gaza_Genocide, and #IsraelisGenocidalState, which indicates strong criticism of Israel.
Pro-Palestine comments often criticize Israel's actions and policies, accuse Israel of human rights violations, and express sympathy for the Palestinians.
They also call for a halt to Israel's occupation and the recognition of Palestine's statehood.
These comments also tend to criticize U.S. politicians and policies that support Israel, and call for solidarity movements for Palestine.
Israel
Pro-Israel comments, on the other hand, often criticize Hamas and accuse them of terrorist activities.
They argue that Israel has a right to defend itself against Hamas' attacks, and some even call for the complete elimination of Hamas.
These comments also often express concern for Israeli hostages and criticize the UN and U.S. politicians for their perceived support of Hamas.
Potentially Biased Content
The implications of MIG data raise concerns about the potential skewing or bias of content, especially on TikTok.
Some commentors online suggest TikTok might be purposefully promoting or suppressing certain narratives, possibly as a result of commercial pressures or political influences.
For example, Elon Musk's reaction to advertisers allegedly trying to influence X content raises questions about the potential for corporate or government influence over the dissemination of information on all social platforms.
However, it is challenging to definitively determine whether the content is purposefully skewed, based on public comments alone.
While the discussions suggest possible bias or skewing, they also reflect users' individual perceptions, which may be influenced by various factors.
Further research would be required to definitively establish the extent and nature of any potential skewing of content on TikTok.
A growing rift has emerged among Democrats over the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine, according to a new Media Intelligence Report.
Overall online sentiment toward Israel and Hamas has been split over the past week at 38% and 36% respectively.
However, among Democrats, sentiment has been more evenly divided between Israel and Hamas
at 45% each.
These sentiment indicators highlight growing ideological differences between factions in the Democrat party.
The Dividing Line for Dems
The MIG report identified a generational divide, with younger Democrats generally more critical of Israel than older members who emphasize Israel's security needs.
Moderate Democrats urged a balanced approach, condemning Hamas while addressing Gaza's humanitarian plight.
Some old-school Democrats decry what they see as a shocking increase in antisemitism among college students and far-left Democrats.
These divisions are causing a rare crack in the normally unified Democrat front.
What Democrats Are Saying
Historically, Democrats tend to move in lockstep, coalescing around a common principle or ideology that drives progressive policy. That is not the case when it comes to Israel.
Support for Israel Among Democrats
Some Democrats defend Israel's military actions as necessary self-defense against Hamas. They argue that Israel is responding to aggression and criticize Hamas for using civilians as human shields.
Among these Democrats, there is support for Biden’s $14.5 billion in military aid for Israel, without humanitarian assistance for Gaza.
Many view Hamas’ actions on October 7 as a “vile atrocity” that requires immediate response.
Overall, many older and more moderate Democrats seem to be inclined to support Israel compared to younger, extremely progressive Democrats.
Many in the Jewish community argue that pro-Palestine protestors misunderstand the threat from Hamas and overly simplify the complex history.
Pro-Palestine Democrats
In contrast, many younger Democrats accuse Israel of war crimes and "genocide" in Gaza. The far left celebrated the terror attack, refused to condemn it, or suggested Israel bears responsibility.
They call for an end to U.S. military aid to Israel and an immediate ceasefire.
Recent pro-Palestine protests in Washington DC, suggest a growing sentiment in support of Palestine.
These individuals argue that Palestinians are being disproportionately targeted and suffer more casualties compared to Israeli civilians.
Protestors demand the Biden administration take a firmer pro-Palestine stance.
Some demand steps be taken to hold Israeli leadership accountable for alleged atrocities. Many protesters also express support for the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel.
Other Takeaways
Overall, there seems to be a division over what constitutes antisemitism. Some say criticism of Israel equates antisemitism.
Others argue that animosity towards Israel is growing, worsening antisemitism.
Meanwhile, others argue criticism is not inherently antisemitic.
In sum, the discourse reveals deep divisions not only between different political and ideological groups, but also within them.
As conflict broke out in early October between Israel and Hamas, Black Lives Matter also found itself in the spotlight. The left-wing activist group generated severe backlash and negativity over its public expressions of solidarity with Hamas, which it ostensibly walked back by deleting some X posts.
According to a report from Media Intelligence Group (MIG), online sentiment toward Black Lives Matter has become increasingly polarized following the organization's controversial remarks. While BLM supporters argue that opposing oppression should be a universal cause, a vast majority of Israel supporters see the comments as anti-Semitic and promoting terrorism.
The MIG report revealed that Black Lives Matter quickly became a top discussion subject online following its statements. During the second week of October, there were more than 9,000 people engaging in online debate about the movement daily.
Sentiment also dropped from 45% positive to 37% in the same week as ideological divisions grew more apparent. Since mid-October, discussion of BLM online has subsided but sentiment overall for leftist ideologies remains in the low 40% range.
Recent discoveries of financial mismanagement in BLM chapters have also fueled negative perceptions. The alleged BLM-linked murder of an Antifa activist has further stirred controversy about violence associated with the movement.
Overall, Black Lives Matter's vocal alignment with Hamas has made it a lightning rod issue, costing it support and retaining only vehement supporters. The complex public response reflects the overall contentious ideological debates sparked by the Israel-Hamas conflict.
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
_1.png)
_1.png)
_1.png)
.png)
_1.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
